IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - A1 AIM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 5262 6117 6805 7493 8182 8439 8704 8538 8375 8030 7528 7056
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 20.9 26.7 37.9 56.5 89.1 127.1 181.3 235.1 304.7 377.4 446.6 528.5
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 50 50 38 36 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 36 38 50 62 75 75 75 60 49 39 31 25
Liquids 111 124 155 197 231 264 302 334 369 388 387 387
Gas 51 53 89 134 194 239 295 335 380 410 421 432
Electricity 38 49 73 104 143 218 331 438 581 709 798 898
Others
Total 285 314 405 532 669 819 1002 1180 1388 1550 1643 1741
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 93 99 134 163 179 182 186 165 148 126 103 84
Oil 143 167 209 238 239 226 214 188 166 149 136 125
Gas 73 91 147 196 298 372 465 519 578 604 590 576
Nuclear 6 8 16 30 53 81 123 125 127 116 95 78
Biomass 50 48 38 61 85 128 193 247 315 360 368 376
Other Renewables 10 12 15 23 40 82 167 278 464 662 808 987
Total 376 424 559 711 895 1098 1347 1574 1840 2034 2128 2226
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.1 1.1 2.2 3.7 5.4 7.0 9.1 10.5 12.2 13.6 14.7 15.9
Oil 0.1 1.7 3.6 5.8 8.2 10.2 12.7 14.4 16.3 18.0 19.4 20.8
Gas 0.1 0.9 2.1 3.8 6.3 9.3 13.9 18.2 23.9 29.8 35.5 42.2
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 75.3 169.6 287.2 422.8 571.9 730.6 892.5 1051.1 1205.7 1353.1 1492.1
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 1459 1466 1462 1457 1454 1448 1442 1436 1429 1424 1422 1420
Grasslands 3389 3404 3429 3446 3458 3478 3498 3525 3552 3568 3572 3576
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 74 158 257 418 484 560 580 536 495
Forest 4296 4237 4173 4164 4164 4177 4190 4194 4199 4202 4203 4204
Others 3805 3842 3886 3807 3715 3554 3400 3299 3201 3173 3213 3253
Total 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 5.99 6.90 9.68 12.12 14.01 14.95 16.01 15.70 15.43 14.83 13.94 13.10
Other CO2 GtC 1.11 1.07 1.20 0.52 0.47 0.40 0.37 0.30 0.30 0.35 0.36 0.39
Total CO2 GtC 7.10 7.97 10.88 12.64 14.48 15.35 16.38 16.00 15.73 15.18 14.30 13.49
CH4 total MtCH4 310 323 373 421 466 458 452 410 373 341 314 289
N2O total MtN2O-N 6.7 7.0 7.0 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.0
SOx total MtS 70.9 69.0 87.1 100.2 91.0 68.9 64.1 46.9 35.7 30.7 29.1 27.6
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 791 337 369 482 566 654 659 654 639 614
PFC MtC eq. 32 25 31 43 61 77 89 97 106 114 119 115
SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 43 48 66 99 119 127 113 88 84 95
CO MtCO 879 877 1002 1032 1109 1160 1214 1245 1276 1357 1499 1663
NMVOC Mt 139 141 178 222 266 272 279 284 289 269 228 193
NOx  MtN 31 32 39 46 50 49 48 46 44 43 41 40
OECD90 - A1 AIM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 859 919 960 1002 1043 1062 1081 1086 1091 1097 1103 1110
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 16.4 20.5 25.3 31.0 38.0 45.4 54.1 64.1 75.9 89.2 103.9 121.1
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 10 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 3 3 2 1
Liquids 64 74 77 82 80 77 75 74 73 71 69 67
Gas 25 30 40 50 63 66 68 72 76 78 78 78
Electricity 22 27 33 40 48 58 70 87 108 129 151 175
Others
Total 127 142 158 180 199 209 218 239 261 282 301 321
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 41 41 41 35 30 29 28 22 17 12 9 7
Oil 76 90 92 89 78 65 54 46 39 34 32 30
Gas 34 47 58 70 83 89 95 99 102 102 99 96
Nuclear 5 6 10 16 23 24 24 23 23 20 18 15
Biomass 6 1 0 4 9 17 29 37 48 54 56 57
Other Renewables 6 6 8 11 16 24 35 55 86 120 152 192
Total 167 191 209 226 239 253 267 293 321 348 372 397
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9
Oil 0.1 0.9 1.8 2.7 3.6 4.2 4.9 5.3 5.8 6.2 6.5 6.8
Gas 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.6 2.4 3.1 4.2 5.0 6.0 7.1 8.0 9.1
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 30.1 63.4 98.4 133.6 168.1 202.0 234.1 263.6 291.1 316.9 340.9
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 381 380 377 376 375 372 368 364 359 356 356 355
Grasslands 760 763 771 774 776 787 797 818 839 849 847 846
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 11 24 39 63 73 85 88 81 75
Forest 1050 1053 1052 1053 1056 1062 1068 1061 1054 1050 1049 1048
Others 838 833 828 814 798 765 733 711 690 685 695 705
Total 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.41 3.51 3.48 3.42 3.36 3.06 2.78 2.56 2.40 2.24
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.06 0.11 0.09 0.07
Total CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.45 3.54 3.50 3.42 3.35 3.06 2.84 2.67 2.48 2.31
CH4 total MtCH4 73 74 71 69 66 58 52 49 47 46 44 42
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2
SOx total MtS 22.7 17.0 9.9 6.9 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.0 5.7 5.3 5.0 4.6
HFC MtC eq. 19 58 110 108 115 118 122 123 123 124 125 125
PFC MtC eq. 18 13 13 11 9 8 9 10 12 13 14 16
SF6 MtC eq. 23 23 14 5 6 7 9 11 13 16 18 20
CO MtCO 179 161 190 205 227 234 241 242 243 247 254 262
NMVOC Mt 42 36 39 39 38 33 28 24 19 17 16 15
NOx  MtN 13 12 12 12 9 7 6 6 6 5 5 5
REF - A1 AIM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 413 419 424 430 435 429 423 406 391 374 356 339
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.1 0.8 1.5 2.9 5.3 8.1 12.4 15.6 19.6 24.0 28.6 34.2
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 9 5 5 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 1
Liquids 19 10 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6
Gas 19 11 18 23 31 38 46 47 49 50 50 50
Electricity 8 8 10 13 15 20 28 33 40 46 50 55
Others
Total 58 38 43 50 59 70 84 91 99 105 109 113
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 18 12 14 14 13 12 11 9 7 5 4 3
Oil 22 14 12 10 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 2
Gas 26 18 26 33 41 48 55 56 56 56 55 54
Nuclear 1 1 2 4 6 7 8 8 8 7 6 5
Biomass 2 4 0 1 2 4 8 10 12 14 14 15
Other Renewables 1 1 1 2 3 6 15 22 32 42 51 61
Total 71 51 56 64 72 86 103 112 122 129 134 139
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8
Gas 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.5 2.1 2.6 3.2 3.7 4.3 4.9
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 11.0 21.8 33.7 45.1 56.3 67.1 77.2 86.5 95.2 103.3 110.9
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 268 266 265 265 265 264 263 262 262 261 260 260
Grasslands 341 361 364 366 367 368 370 371 371 372 373 374
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 3 6 10 16 19 22 23 21 20
Forest 966 950 918 904 894 899 905 909 912 916 922 927
Others 701 698 728 738 745 733 722 715 708 703 700 696
Total 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 1.05 1.11 1.13 1.16 1.18 1.08 0.99 0.91 0.84 0.78
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.03 0.01 -0.06 -0.13 -0.11 -0.09 -0.07 -0.05 -0.03
Total CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 1.24 1.14 1.14 1.10 1.05 0.97 0.90 0.84 0.79 0.75
CH4 total MtCH4 47 39 58 61 60 51 42 41 39 38 36 34
N2O total MtN2O-N 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5
SOx total MtS 17.0 11.0 12.2 10.8 7.5 4.3 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 8 19 29 31 32 33 33 34 33 31
PFC MtC eq. 7 4 5 8 14 20 21 22 23 24 25 24
SF6 MtC eq. 8 6 8 10 14 18 21 19 15 14 10 11
CO MtCO 69 41 41 41 42 42 43 42 42 42 43 44
NMVOC Mt 16 13 15 14 15 15 16 17 17 17 18 18
NOx  MtN 5 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1
ASIA - A1 AIM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 2798 3261 3556 3851 4147 4183 4220 4016 3822 3541 3194 2882
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.5 2.7 5.8 12.3 26.2 40.5 62.7 85.4 116.2 147.6 174.9 207.3
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 28 25 18 14 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 15 22 34 44 56 56 57 47 39 31 25 20
Liquids 11 17 30 48 65 75 87 99 112 118 115 112
Gas 2 3 8 17 37 51 70 90 115 136 147 160
Electricity 5 8 15 27 44 72 117 161 223 280 319 363
Others
Total 61 75 105 151 205 261 331 404 495 567 610 655
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 30 39 64 87 108 106 104 94 86 73 59 48
Oil 17 27 45 62 68 59 51 44 38 33 30 27
Gas 4 8 17 35 66 95 137 167 203 228 235 243
Nuclear 0 0 2 6 15 26 45 47 50 46 38 32
Biomass 28 24 19 20 19 29 46 58 75 85 87 89
Other Renewables 1 2 2 4 10 24 58 101 177 261 323 399
Total 80 100 149 214 285 354 440 533 646 734 784 838
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.6 3.5 4.7 5.6 6.5 7.4 8.0 8.7
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.8 2.3 3.0 3.4 3.8 4.2 4.5 4.8
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.7 3.0 4.3 6.2 8.4 10.6 13.3
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 17.8 44.2 81.3 128.7 183.5 241.6 301.6 362.2 422.7 481.2 537.1
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 438 435 434 433 432 431 431 430 429 428 428 428
Grasslands 608 606 609 611 613 615 617 618 619 621 622 624
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 17 37 61 99 115 133 137 127 117
Forest 535 522 512 524 535 535 535 544 552 556 555 555
Others 583 601 609 579 547 514 483 455 429 421 431 441
Total 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.15 1.78 2.92 4.11 5.21 5.46 5.73 5.86 5.99 5.89 5.57 5.27
Other CO2 GtC 0.37 0.26 0.33 0.05 0.12 0.17 0.25 0.16 0.11 0.10 0.14 0.19
Total CO2 GtC 1.53 2.03 3.25 4.16 5.32 5.64 5.98 6.02 6.10 5.99 5.71 5.46
CH4 total MtCH4 113 125 145 171 207 210 214 183 156 138 127 117
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9
SOx total MtS 17.7 25.3 42.1 54.2 45.6 19.8 8.4 7.9 7.5 7.1 6.7 6.4
HFC MtC eq. 0 5 18 45 92 153 224 292 292 285 275 262
PFC MtC eq. 3 5 8 15 23 30 35 39 43 46 48 46
SF6 MtC eq. 4 7 12 19 28 42 50 55 48 35 33 37
CO MtCO 235 270 358 360 430 460 492 506 520 555 614 678
NMVOC Mt 33 37 49 70 94 99 105 112 119 111 90 73
NOx  MtN 7 9 13 16 19 19 19 17 16 15 14 13
ALM - A1 AIM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 1192 1519 1865 2211 2557 2761 2980 3024 3067 3013 2866 2727
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.9 2.7 5.3 10.3 19.5 31.9 52.0 69.4 92.5 116.6 139.1 165.9
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 14 20 20 22 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 1 2 2 4 6 7 7 6 5 4 3 2
Liquids 17 22 38 58 78 102 133 153 176 191 196 202
Gas 4 9 25 43 64 84 112 125 139 147 145 144
Electricity 4 6 15 24 36 65 117 156 210 254 278 304
Others
Total 40 59 100 151 205 275 369 443 532 596 623 652
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 5 7 16 26 29 35 42 40 38 35 30 26
Oil 27 36 60 77 86 94 104 94 85 78 71 65
Gas 9 18 46 58 108 139 178 196 215 217 200 184
Nuclear 0 0 1 4 9 20 45 45 46 42 33 26
Biomass 14 18 19 36 55 78 110 141 181 206 211 215
Other Renewables 2 3 4 6 12 26 59 100 168 238 282 335
Total 57 81 146 208 299 401 538 635 750 822 837 852
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.4 1.7 2.1 2.5 2.8 1.7
Oil 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.3 3.1 4.2 5.0 6.0 6.9 7.6 6.7
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.8 2.9 4.7 6.3 8.4 10.6 12.5 12.5
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 16.4 40.2 73.8 115.4 164.0 219.9 279.6 338.8 396.7 451.7 503.1
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 371 385 384 383 382 381 381 380 379 379 378 378
Grasslands 1680 1673 1685 1695 1702 1708 1714 1718 1722 1726 1730 1733
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 42 90 147 240 277 321 332 307 284
Forest 1745 1711 1690 1683 1680 1681 1682 1681 1680 1678 1676 1674
Others 1684 1710 1720 1676 1625 1542 1463 1417 1373 1363 1387 1411
Total 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 0.72 1.01 2.30 3.40 4.20 4.91 5.73 5.70 5.67 5.47 5.13 4.81
Other CO2 GtC 0.73 0.82 0.63 0.40 0.32 0.29 0.26 0.25 0.23 0.21 0.19 0.16
Total CO2 GtC 1.45 1.83 2.93 3.80 4.52 5.20 5.99 5.94 5.90 5.68 5.32 4.97
CH4 total MtCH4 77 85 99 120 134 139 144 137 130 120 107 95
N2O total MtN2O-N 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4
SOx total MtS 10.5 12.8 20.0 25.3 28.4 35.5 44.1 28.0 17.8 13.7 12.8 12.1
HFC MtC eq. 0 2 15 39 81 139 184 205 210 210 206 196
PFC MtC eq. 4 4 5 9 14 19 23 26 28 30 31 30
SF6 MtC eq. 3 5 10 14 19 32 40 42 37 23 24 26
CO MtCO 396 404 413 427 410 424 439 455 472 513 588 679
NMVOC Mt 48 55 75 99 119 124 129 131 134 124 105 88
NOx  MtN 7 8 11 15 19 20 21 21 21 21 21 21