IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - A1 IMAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 5280 6122 6892 7618 8196 8547 8708 8671 8484 8142 7663 7047
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 21.0 26.7 37.9 55.9 81.2 116.2 163.5 219.4 283.2 365.2 446.4 518.8
1990 US$/cap 3971.0 4357.0 5503.0 7342.0 9907.0 13598.0 18772.0 25300.0 33383.0 44853.0 58248.0 73621.0 NOT ppp-corrected
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 54 59 65 63 59 50 40 38 35 32 29 25
Solids 43 44 45 52 59 66 69 65 59 52 47 40
Liquids 106 119 146 177 198 213 209 204 200 190 175 161
Gas 46 55 73 84 90 100 119 134 145 154 157 156
Electricity 39 55 88 147 220 307 373 410 427 428 408 376
Others 2 4 11 29 50 68 85 93 93 92 91 85
Total 289 336 429 551 677 804 895 944 959 950 907 843
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 105 111 129 170 245 298 301 271 237 198 163 129
Oil 129 143 187 242 285 300 348 352 340 320 280 237
Gas 62 73 117 163 188 222 259 278 283 278 264 244
Non-Fossil Electric 8 14 23 39 61 91 128 162 193 218 230 230
Biomass 3 4 12 35 69 102 129 141 138 133 128 116
Other Renewables 61 69 77 76 74 68 59 58 56 54 51 48
Total 368 416 544 725 923 1080 1224 1262 1246 1201 1116 1002
Cumulative Resources Production ZJ NOT use but Production
Coal 0.0 1.1 2.3 3.7 5.8 8.5 11.6 14.5 17.0 19.2 21.0 22.4
Oil 0.0 1.3 3.0 5.1 7.8 10.7 14.0 17.5 21.0 24.3 27.3 29.9
Gas 0.0 0.6 1.6 3.0 4.8 6.8 9.2 11.9 14.7 17.5 20.3 22.8
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 75.3 161.5 268.4 404.0 567.1 748.7 934.5 1116.8 1291.7 1451.8 1594.1
Carbon Sequestraction GtC 2.1 1.7 2.7 4.0 5.3 5.8 5.9 5.7 5.2 5.2 5.2 4.6 Net Ecosystem Production (NEP)
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 1435 1382 1450 1524 1573 1571 1530 1490 1439 1355 1295 1208 Arable land for crops excluding energy crops and grass & fodder species
Grasslands 3435 3295 3313 3362 3381 3271 3064 2849 2705 2597 2505 2347 Permanent pasture: FAO category 'land for grass & fodder species'
Energy Biomass 8 10 26 82 177 274 374 404 391 384 367 334
Forest 4277 4266 4224 4251 4147 4132 4173 4256 4362 4490 4564 4700
Others 3916 4119 4058 3853 3793 3824 3931 4072 4174 4246 4340 4483
Total 13071 13071 13071 13071 13071 13071 13071 13071 13071 13071 13071 13071
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 5.99 6.90 8.50 11.10 14.30 17.60 18.70 18.40 17.80 16.40 14.60 12.90
Other CO2 GtC 1.11 1.07 0.77 1.01 0.71 0.02 0.02 0.05 0.22 0.56 0.47 0.50 Approximate calculation from complex land-use module
Total CO2 GtC 7.10 7.97 9.27 12.11 15.00 17.61 18.71 18.45 18.02 16.96 15.07 13.39
CH4 total MtCH4 310 323 360 423 475 499 512 523 525 513 488 452
N2O total MtN2O-N 6.7 7.0 7.5 8.6 9.3 9.9 10.3 10.3 10.2 9.8 9.7 9.1
SOx total MtS 70.9 69.0 77.5 90.9 108.5 121.0 119.5 114.8 106.8 95.5 83.0 71.2
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 791 337 369 482 566 654 659 654 639 614
PFC MtC eq. 32 25 31 43 61 77 89 97 106 114 119 115
SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 43 48 66 99 119 127 113 88 84 95
CO MtCO 879 877 832 978 1054 913 949 1012 1089 1141 1110 1080
NMVOC Mt 139 141 144 157 163 159 158 154 152 149 142 133
NOx  MtN 31 32 38 48 57 63 63 63 61 57 51 45
OECD90 - A1 IMAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Remarks
Population Million 799 849 890 932 965 990 1001 1005 1009 1020 1029 1032
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 16.5 20.2 26.9 35.6 44.3 53.0 62.4 71.3 77.9 88.7 101.2 114.6
1990 US$/cap 20648.9 23840.3 30131.7 38187.4 45863.7 53609.2 62283.6 70840.8 77152.1 87018.1 98251.1 111071.1 NOT ppp-corrected
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4
Solids 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
Liquids 57 62 68 71 67 61 53 49 47 46 44 42
Gas 24 27 30 31 32 35 40 43 45 49 52 55
Electricity 24 36 52 66 74 76 76 76 75 76 77 78
Others 2 3 5 10 16 22 26 27 27 26 26 26
Total 120 141 168 191 203 207 208 207 207 209 212 214
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 37 47 51 51 51 48 46 42 37 35 32 30
Oil 67 76 84 88 84 67 65 60 57 56 54 50
Gas 28 36 46 52 51 51 53 55 56 58 61 64
Non-Fossil Electric 7 12 19 29 36 40 42 45 46 48 51 54
Biomass 2 3 5 10 16 23 25 28 28 27 28 24
Other Renewables 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
Total 151 183 216 240 248 240 242 240 236 235 237 233
Cumulative Resources Production ZJ NOT use but Production
Coal 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.9 2.6 3.4 4.1 4.8 5.5 6.1 6.7
Oil 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.3 3.1 4.3 5.5 6.7 7.9 9.1
Gas 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.6 2.1 2.5 3.0 3.6 4.1 4.6 5.1
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 30.1 62.6 95.4 127.6 159.5 191.6 223.7 256.0 288.6 321.4 354.6
Carbon Sequestraction GtC 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.3 Net Ecosystem Production (NEP)
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 379 379 378 385 382 383 391 394 395 395 399 394 Arable land for crops excluding energy crops and grass & fodder species
Grasslands 786 676 584 516 487 479 472 467 462 458 459 453 Permanent pasture: FAO category 'land for grass & fodder species'
Energy Biomass 3 1 3 9 20 32 43 51 55 52 52 43
Forest 1115 1167 1215 1259 1273 1272 1263 1256 1250 1252 1245 1262
Others 955 1016 1059 1070 1076 1073 1070 1071 1076 1081 1083 1087
Total 3238 3238 3238 3238 3238 3238 3238 3238 3238 3238 3238 3238
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.20 3.20 3.20 3.20 3.20 3.20 3.20 3.20 3.20 3.20
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.06 -0.03 0.02 0.00 0.03 0.04 0.07 0.10 0.13 Approximate calculation from complex land-use module
Total CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.30 3.26 3.17 3.22 3.20 3.22 3.24 3.27 3.30 3.33
CH4 total MtCH4 73 74 78 81 83 85 88 89 89 91 91 86
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9
SOx total MtS 22.7 17.0 13.4 12.5 10.9 10.1 9.4 9.1 8.8 8.9 9.0 8.9
HFC MtC eq. 19 58 110 108 115 118 122 123 123 124 125 125
PFC MtC eq. 18 13 13 11 9 8 9 10 12 13 14 16
SF6 MtC eq. 23 23 14 5 6 7 9 11 13 16 18 20
CO MtCO 179 161 177 182 180 180 173 172 169 173 179 177
NMVOC Mt 42 36 37 37 34 33 30 27 26 25 25 23
NOx  MtN 13 12 13 13 12 10 9 9 8 9 9 8
REF - A1 IMAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Remarks
Population Million 412 429 437 443 445 443 432 419 401 384 365 347
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.0 0.7 1.0 2.0 3.5 5.9 9.2 13.0 17.2 22.7 28.4 34.3
1990 US$/cap 2307.2 1657.3 2378.6 4378.7 7868.6 13380.5 21343.7 30936.4 42882.5 59159.7 77741.4 98993.7 NOT ppp-corrected
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1
Solids 14 10 7 6 5 6 5 5 5 4 4 3
Liquids 21 12 12 15 16 16 15 15 14 13 12 11
Gas 15 11 10 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 9 9
Electricity 9 5 7 15 22 30 34 34 32 31 29 27
Others 0 1 1 1 2 3 4 4 4 4 4 4
Total 62 41 40 50 59 68 71 70 67 63 59 56
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 36 19 15 16 20 27 28 25 22 18 15 11
Oil 28 14 16 20 23 26 30 29 27 25 23 20
Gas 25 15 16 23 27 28 25 22 20 17 17 13
Non-Fossil Electric 1 1 1 3 6 9 11 11 12 12 12 12
Biomass 1 1 1 2 3 6 6 6 6 7 7 9
Other Renewables 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Total 95 52 52 67 82 99 103 98 90 84 77 70
Cumulative Resources Production ZJ NOT use but Production
Coal 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.8 2.3 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.4
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.3
Gas 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.7 2.4 3.0 3.6 4.3 4.9 5.4
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 11.0 20.1 29.7 40.0 51.7 65.4 79.5 93.0 106.4 119.4 131.9
Carbon Sequestraction GtC 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 Net Ecosystem Production (NEP)
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 278 223 229 227 224 218 207 199 189 179 169 164 Arable land for crops excluding energy crops and grass & fodder species
Grasslands 392 307 329 339 333 310 279 258 238 234 226 221 Permanent pasture: FAO category 'land for grass & fodder species'
Energy Biomass 1 0 1 6 19 46 84 87 92 83 83 92
Forest 1146 1174 1167 1250 1242 1238 1238 1233 1227 1226 1218 1200
Others 461 574 551 455 460 466 471 501 532 556 582 600
Total 2278 2278 2278 2278 2278 2278 2278 2278 2278 2278 2278 2278
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.91 1.11 1.31 1.61 1.61 1.41 1.31 1.21 1.01 0.91
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.09 -0.27 -0.30 -0.18 -0.03 0.02 0.15 0.24 0.35 Approximate calculation from complex land-use module
Total CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.90 1.02 1.04 1.31 1.43 1.38 1.33 1.36 1.25 1.26
CH4 total MtCH4 47 39 41 51 57 58 52 52 51 47 43 40
N2O total MtN2O-N 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6
SOx total MtS 17.0 11.0 9.4 9.7 9.6 10.6 10.6 9.9 8.9 7.8 6.8 5.8
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 8 19 29 31 32 33 33 34 33 31
PFC MtC eq. 7 4 5 8 14 20 21 22 23 24 25 24
SF6 MtC eq. 8 6 8 10 14 18 21 19 15 14 10 11
CO MtCO 69 41 34 38 45 52 55 56 56 56 54 52
NMVOC Mt 16 13 12 12 12 13 12 12 12 12 11 11
NOx  MtN 5 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3
ASIA - A1 IMAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Remarks
Population Million 2781 3246 3609 3929 4142 4235 4220 4088 3871 3594 3262 2886
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.4 2.7 4.7 8.7 16.1 28.8 48.2 73.2 103.0 139.3 173.5 200.7
1990 US$/cap 337.2 531.9 873.7 1553.2 2837.7 5139.5 8819.4 13804.2 19837.3 27431.3 35626.4 44069.4 NOT ppp-corrected
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 29 33 33 30 26 20 14 13 11 10 8 7
Solids 20 24 26 29 32 35 33 30 27 23 19 15
Liquids 12 21 29 38 49 59 58 57 55 51 46 42
Gas 2 8 17 23 27 30 39 45 47 49 47 43
Electricity 4 9 20 42 75 119 150 166 173 171 159 139
Others 0 1 3 12 23 33 40 42 40 38 35 31
Total 68 96 127 174 232 295 334 352 352 341 314 277
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 28 42 53 71 99 126 125 108 91 70 50 36
Oil 16 27 40 59 77 76 96 98 92 84 71 57
Gas 4 12 29 52 76 87 94 110 98 88 86 65
Non-Fossil Electric 0 1 2 6 14 32 55 75 91 104 107 102
Biomass 0 1 4 14 31 52 61 62 55 53 46 36
Other Renewables 30 34 36 33 29 24 18 17 15 14 13 12
Total 79 116 163 235 326 397 449 468 442 413 373 308
Cumulative Resources Production ZJ NOT use but Production
Coal 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.9 2.7 3.6 4.5 5.1 5.7 6.1 6.4
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.5 2.8 3.0 3.2
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.5 2.1 2.5 3.0 3.5 3.8
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 17.8 42.1 76.2 123.5 184.2 251.8 317.7 378.5 432.7 478.4 515.6
Carbon Sequestraction GtC 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 Net Ecosystem Production (NEP)
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 382 386 396 413 428 430 409 394 372 327 306 267 Arable land for crops excluding energy crops and grass & fodder species
Grasslands 561 664 692 747 770 778 697 626 601 560 539 473 Permanent pasture: FAO category 'land for grass & fodder species'
Energy Biomass 1 1 3 15 53 95 142 141 117 129 126 97
Forest 488 397 369 331 286 252 244 273 335 403 438 515
Others 545 527 515 470 439 421 484 543 551 557 566 624
Total 1976 1976 1976 1976 1976 1976 1976 1976 1976 1976 1976 1976
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.15 1.78 2.58 3.68 5.08 6.38 6.58 6.18 5.68 4.88 3.98 3.28
Other CO2 GtC 0.37 0.26 0.24 0.32 0.40 0.29 0.27 0.16 0.14 0.15 0.14 0.06 Approximate calculation from complex land-use module
Total CO2 GtC 1.53 2.03 2.82 4.00 5.48 6.66 6.85 6.33 5.82 5.02 4.12 3.33
CH4 total MtCH4 113 125 136 157 181 198 206 206 202 191 183 166
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.4 3.8 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.1
SOx total MtS 17.7 25.3 29.9 33.6 39.5 42.9 39.4 35.8 32.2 27.3 21.9 17.6
HFC MtC eq. 0 5 18 45 92 153 224 292 292 285 275 262
PFC MtC eq. 3 5 8 15 23 30 35 39 43 46 48 46
SF6 MtC eq. 4 7 12 19 28 42 50 55 48 35 33 37
CO MtCO 235 270 294 332 406 378 403 418 426 421 420 385
NMVOC Mt 33 37 40 45 50 51 51 49 47 44 42 39
NOx  MtN 7 9 12 16 21 24 23 22 21 18 16 13
ALM - A1 IMAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Remarks
Population Million 1287 1597 1954 2315 2643 2879 3055 3159 3202 3145 3006 2783
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 2.1 3.0 5.4 9.8 17.3 28.5 43.7 62.0 85.2 114.4 143.3 169.2
1990 US$/cap 1653.4 1901.8 2738.2 4210.1 6556.0 9905.2 14317.2 19627.9 26606.2 36388.5 47686.9 60795.4 NOT ppp-corrected
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 16 20 25 26 26 24 20 19 18 17 15 13
Solids 1 3 5 9 13 17 22 22 20 17 16 14
Liquids 15 23 37 53 67 77 82 84 85 81 73 65
Gas 4 9 17 18 19 23 30 36 43 47 48 49
Electricity 2 4 9 24 50 81 112 133 147 151 144 132
Others 0 0 1 5 9 11 15 20 22 24 26 24
Total 39 58 94 135 184 233 281 315 334 336 322 296
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 3 4 10 32 75 97 102 97 87 75 66 52
Oil 17 27 47 75 101 131 157 165 165 155 132 109
Gas 6 10 26 37 34 56 88 91 109 115 100 102
Non-Fossil Electric 0 0 1 2 5 11 20 31 43 54 60 62
Biomass 0 0 2 9 20 21 36 45 49 45 47 46
Other Renewables 18 22 28 29 30 29 26 26 25 24 23 21
Total 43 64 114 183 266 344 429 456 478 469 428 391
Cumulative Resources Production ZJ NOT use but Production
Coal 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.8 2.7 3.6 4.3 5.0 5.5 5.9
Oil 0.0 0.6 1.6 2.8 4.4 6.3 8.1 9.8 11.5 13.0 14.3 15.4
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.0 2.8 3.8 4.9 6.2 7.3 8.4
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 16.4 36.8 67.2 112.9 171.6 239.9 313.6 389.3 464.0 532.6 592.1
Carbon Sequestraction GtC 1.2 1.0 1.6 2.1 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.3 Net Ecosystem Production (NEP)
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 397 394 447 499 540 540 523 503 483 455 421 384 Arable land for crops excluding energy crops and grass & fodder species
Grasslands 1697 1648 1708 1760 1790 1704 1617 1499 1403 1345 1281 1201 Permanent pasture: FAO category 'land for grass & fodder species'
Energy Biomass 2 8 19 53 85 101 105 125 127 120 106 102
Forest 1529 1529 1472 1410 1346 1370 1429 1494 1552 1608 1662 1722
Others 1955 2001 1933 1857 1818 1864 1906 1958 2014 2051 2109 2171
Total 5579 5579 5579 5579 5579 5579 5579 5579 5579 5579 5579 5579
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 0.72 1.01 1.81 3.11 4.71 6.41 7.31 7.61 7.61 7.11 6.41 5.51
Other CO2 GtC 0.73 0.82 0.44 0.73 0.60 0.01 -0.08 -0.10 0.02 0.20 -0.01 -0.03 Approximate calculation from complex land-use module
Total CO2 GtC 1.45 1.83 2.25 3.84 5.31 6.42 7.24 7.51 7.63 7.31 6.41 5.48
CH4 total MtCH4 77 85 105 134 154 158 166 176 183 184 171 160
N2O total MtN2O-N 1.2 1.3 1.5 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.6
SOx total MtS 10.5 12.8 21.8 32.0 45.5 54.4 57.2 57.0 53.9 48.5 42.4 35.9
HFC MtC eq. 0 2 15 39 81 139 184 205 210 210 206 196
PFC MtC eq. 4 4 5 9 14 19 23 26 28 30 31 30
SF6 MtC eq. 3 5 10 14 19 32 40 42 37 23 24 26
CO MtCO 396 404 326 425 422 302 317 365 437 490 456 465
NMVOC Mt 48 55 55 63 67 62 65 66 67 68 64 60
NOx  MtN 7 8 10 15 21 24 26 28 28 26 24 21