IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - A1 MINICAM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 5293 6100 6874 7618 8122 8484 8703 8623 8430 8126 7621 7137
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 20.7 27.4 38.1 52.8 80.2 117.3 164.4 226.8 294.5 367.3 445.1 530.7
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 45 57 71 86 98 103 99 73 54 45 46 47
Liquids 121 126 134 145 144 161 197 238 279 318 364 411
Gas 52 63 72 80 81 81 79 90 101 111 73 36
Electricity 35 53 82 123 199 289 392 511 628 745 856 968
Others 0 0 20 59 99 156 231 272 308 341 280 220
Total 253 300 379 493 622 790 998 1184 1371 1559 1620 1682
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 88 116 145 174 224 255 265 216 179 156 190 225
Oil 131 136 144 155 141 154 194 244 291 333 387 440
Gas 70 85 137 226 336 437 527 611 678 728 476 224
Nuclear 24 25 33 45 60 75 89 100 112 125 218 311
Biomass 0 5 14 26 55 87 124 148 159 156 187 219
Other Renewables 24 25 28 35 48 97 181 311 448 589 687 785
Total 336 392 500 661 865 1104 1380 1630 1866 2087 2145 2204
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.1 1.2 2.5 4.0 6.2 8.6 11.1 13.4 15.4 17.1 18.9 20.8
Oil 0.1 1.5 2.9 4.4 5.8 7.4 9.0 11.4 14.0 17.1 20.8 24.6
Gas 0.1 0.9 2.1 3.8 6.9 10.8 15.4 21.4 27.8 34.7 40.0 45.2
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 75.3 163.2 272.9 410.2 572.6 755.3 949.5 1148.9 1355.0 1552.0 1724.0
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 1472 1467 1472 1489 1472 1429 1361 1210 1054 891 769 646
Grasslands 3209 3349 3604 3974 4359 4663 4885 4731 4480 4134 3872 3609
Energy Biomass 0 1 13 35 103 178 261 296 294 255 313 372
Forest 4173 4215 4141 3952 3606 3309 3060 3318 3704 4217 4435 4654
Others 4310 4133 3935 3715 3625 3585 3596 3608 3632 3667 3775 3884
Total 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 5.99 6.90 8.51 10.74 13.45 15.88 18.18 19.11 20.07 21.05 19.45 17.93
Other CO2 GtC 1.11 1.07 1.10 1.59 1.68 1.48 1.01 0.53 0.17 -0.07 -1.02 -1.97
Total CO2 GtC 7.10 7.97 9.60 12.33 15.13 17.35 19.19 19.64 20.24 20.98 18.43 15.96
CH4 total MtCH4 310 323 356 406 467 528 573 592 604 608 572 535
N2O total MtN2O-N 6.7 7.0 8.0 9.2 10.6 12.3 13.8 14.4 14.8 15.0 15.3 15.6
SOx total MtS 70.9 69.0 78.8 80.7 77.3 66.1 47.1 32.2 23.9 22.3 25.7 29.2
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 791 337 369 482 566 654 659 654 639 614
PFC MtC eq. 32 25 31 43 61 77 89 97 106 114 119 115
SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 43 48 66 99 119 127 113 88 84 95
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
OECD90 - A1 MINICAM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 838 908 965 1007 1024 1066 1081 1084 1090 1098 1105 1112
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 16.3 20.5 25.6 31.5 34.4 44.7 53.6 63.3 74.4 86.7 102.1 118.7
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 10 13 12 9 9 7 5 4 3 3 4 5
Liquids 72 73 70 61 51 30 28 30 32 35 43 51
Gas 27 36 41 40 38 30 25 27 30 33 24 14
Electricity 22 28 33 36 37 40 42 51 63 76 102 128
Others 0 0 16 47 59 98 129 140 151 164 141 117
Total 130 151 172 195 195 205 229 252 279 311 313 315
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 40 47 45 35 37 42 45 43 38 30 42 54
Oil 76 78 74 64 52 26 22 22 26 35 44 53
Gas 34 47 73 113 120 141 154 169 184 201 143 84
Nuclear 20 16 13 12 11 9 8 9 10 12 26 39
Biomass 0 2 5 10 13 24 33 36 37 37 51 66
Other Renewables 12 11 11 11 11 15 21 32 46 62 82 103
Total 182 201 222 245 245 258 283 310 342 376 388 400
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.5 2.1 2.6 3.0 3.4 3.8 4.2 4.6
Oil 0.1 0.9 1.6 2.3 2.5 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.1 4.5 4.9
Gas 0.0 0.5 1.1 2.0 2.6 4.6 6.0 7.7 9.5 11.4 12.9 14.4
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 30.1 64.2 101.8 140.6 178.9 217.2 256.4 296.6 337.8 377.3 412.4
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 408 411 410 408 402 378 352 309 268 229 196 163
Grasslands 796 821 866 931 963 1044 1076 1048 1007 953 898 843
Energy Biomass 0 1 9 24 34 67 92 95 93 86 120 154
Forest 921 931 922 894 867 794 760 825 904 996 1028 1059
Others 998 959 916 866 857 840 843 846 851 859 882 904
Total 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.48 3.64 3.58 3.57 3.77 3.95 4.14 4.34 4.00 3.67
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.27 0.28 0.22 0.11 0.02 -0.07 -0.16 -0.28 -0.40
Total CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.62 3.90 3.86 3.79 3.87 3.97 4.07 4.18 3.72 3.28
CH4 total MtCH4 73 74 83 93 98 117 133 150 160 161 167 173
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.6 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.5 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
SOx total MtS 22.7 17.0 13.1 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.2 3.3 4.5
HFC MtC eq. 19 58 110 108 115 118 122 123 123 124 125 125
PFC MtC eq. 18 13 13 11 9 8 9 10 12 13 14 16
SF6 MtC eq. 23 23 14 5 6 7 9 11 13 16 18 20
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
REF - A1 MINICAM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 428 425 426 433 434 431 423 408 392 374 357 340
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.1 1.1 1.4 2.1 3.5 5.1 6.9 10.0 13.6 17.8 21.8 26.3
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 13 10 9 9 8 8 8 6 4 4 4 4
Liquids 18 12 9 11 12 14 16 19 21 23 23 24
Gas 19 15 13 15 15 15 15 16 17 18 11 5
Electricity 6 8 13 21 33 44 56 68 79 89 94 98
Others 0 0 0 1 1 2 3 4 4 4 3 1
Total 56 44 45 57 70 84 98 112 125 137 134 132
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 18 17 19 22 30 34 34 24 18 17 19 22
Oil 20 13 11 13 10 9 12 18 22 24 25 27
Gas 26 20 22 34 47 53 54 58 60 60 36 12
Nuclear 3 4 6 10 11 12 13 13 14 15 23 31
Biomass 0 1 2 3 7 10 12 14 13 12 12 12
Other Renewables 3 3 4 5 7 14 26 41 56 70 75 80
Total 70 58 64 87 111 132 151 169 184 197 191 184
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.5
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.8
Gas 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.2 2.8 3.4 4.0 4.4 4.8
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 11.0 20.4 31.8 46.8 64.8 84.0 103.1 121.6 139.8 155.7 167.5
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 284 294 304 317 322 321 312 273 230 183 158 134
Grasslands 395 410 454 527 609 676 729 684 616 526 488 451
Energy Biomass 0 0 1 4 17 26 31 32 28 20 18 16
Forest 1007 1016 996 945 861 792 738 818 928 1066 1109 1151
Others 691 657 622 584 569 563 567 570 575 582 604 626
Total 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.94 1.23 1.56 1.77 1.85 1.77 1.73 1.73 1.51 1.31
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.08 0.13 0.13 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.08 -0.13 -0.34
Total CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.97 1.31 1.69 1.90 1.94 1.87 1.83 1.81 1.38 0.97
CH4 total MtCH4 47 39 49 68 82 96 108 106 108 112 99 86
N2O total MtN2O-N 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.6
SOx total MtS 17.0 11.0 10.1 10.1 10.7 9.4 6.4 3.4 1.7 1.4 1.8 2.2
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 8 19 29 31 32 33 33 34 33 31
PFC MtC eq. 7 4 5 8 14 20 21 22 23 24 25 24
SF6 MtC eq. 8 6 8 10 14 18 21 19 15 14 10 11
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
ASIA - A1 MINICAM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 2790 3226 3608 3937 4115 4210 4219 4062 3852 3589 3245 2919
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.4 3.1 6.5 11.7 23.9 40.4 61.3 86.4 112.3 139.1 166.0 195.3
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 20 31 45 62 73 78 76 54 40 32 31 31
Liquids 14 19 27 36 47 61 78 93 106 118 130 143
Gas 2 5 8 11 14 16 17 20 23 25 16 7
Electricity 4 11 25 47 90 141 200 254 305 352 382 412
Others 0 0 2 7 14 26 45 55 62 67 52 36
Total 40 67 108 163 238 322 416 476 535 594 611 629
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 26 45 71 104 133 147 147 110 86 73 81 90
Oil 16 21 29 40 47 61 81 101 116 126 140 154
Gas 3 9 24 49 102 149 192 219 235 241 149 57
Nuclear 1 4 9 17 27 37 47 51 55 60 97 135
Biomass 0 2 5 10 22 35 48 58 61 59 64 70
Other Renewables 3 4 5 8 14 40 85 149 212 275 304 332
Total 49 85 144 227 344 468 600 687 765 833 835 838
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.9 3.1 4.5 6.0 7.2 8.1 9.0 9.8 10.6
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.5 3.4 4.5 5.7 7.1 8.5
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.5 2.8 4.4 6.5 8.8 11.1 12.8 14.5
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 17.8 42.9 80.0 132.5 199.7 277.8 358.9 437.6 515.0 587.0 649.6
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 389 400 410 420 416 405 387 350 312 273 235 198
Grasslands 508 524 555 603 646 681 708 704 691 670 641 612
Energy Biomass 0 0 2 6 28 51 75 85 83 67 73 79
Forest 1168 1144 1102 1041 980 932 896 925 978 1053 1116 1179
Others 664 633 600 565 551 545 547 550 555 562 581 600
Total 2729 2700 2668 2635 2620 2613 2614 2614 2618 2626 2647 2667
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.15 1.78 2.79 4.16 5.78 7.07 8.03 7.86 7.75 7.70 6.88 6.10
Other CO2 GtC 0.37 0.26 0.20 0.27 0.31 0.29 0.22 0.11 0.03 -0.01 -0.16 -0.30
Total CO2 GtC 1.53 2.03 2.99 4.43 6.08 7.36 8.26 7.97 7.78 7.69 6.72 5.80
CH4 total MtCH4 113 125 134 146 160 172 180 172 166 163 159 154
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.3 3.7 4.1 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.9 4.9 5.0
SOx total MtS 17.7 25.3 37.9 50.0 47.4 38.3 22.7 14.3 9.5 8.2 9.4 10.6
HFC MtC eq. 0 5 18 45 92 153 224 292 292 285 275 262
PFC MtC eq. 3 5 8 15 23 30 35 39 43 46 48 46
SF6 MtC eq. 4 7 12 19 28 42 50 55 48 35 33 37
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
ALM - A1 MINICAM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 1236 1541 1876 2241 2531 2778 2980 3068 3096 3064 2913 2766
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.9 2.8 4.6 7.4 15.4 27.2 42.6 67.0 94.1 123.7 155.2 190.3
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 2 3 4 6 9 10 11 9 7 7 7 8
Liquids 17 22 29 37 43 56 75 98 120 142 167 193
Gas 5 7 10 13 17 20 22 27 31 35 23 10
Electricity 3 6 11 18 38 64 94 137 182 228 279 330
Others 0 0 1 4 13 30 54 74 91 107 86 65
Total 27 38 55 78 120 179 256 344 432 518 562 606
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 4 6 9 13 23 31 39 38 38 37 48 59
Oil 20 23 29 38 44 58 80 104 127 149 177 206
Gas 7 10 17 29 61 93 127 165 198 226 148 71
Nuclear 0 2 4 7 11 16 21 27 32 38 72 105
Biomass 0 1 2 3 10 19 31 41 47 49 60 72
Other Renewables 5 6 8 12 16 28 49 89 134 183 226 269
Total 35 48 71 102 165 246 346 464 576 681 731 781
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.7 3.1
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.5 3.4 4.6 5.9 7.7 9.4
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 2.8 4.4 6.2 8.3 9.9 11.5
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 16.4 35.6 59.2 90.2 129.3 176.4 231.2 293.1 362.4 432.0 494.5
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 391 363 348 344 338 326 310 278 244 206 179 152
Grasslands 1510 1594 1728 1913 2109 2262 2372 2295 2166 1985 1845 1704
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 1 13 34 64 84 90 82 102 123
Forest 3641 3591 3478 3301 3098 2932 2801 2883 3039 3270 3423 3575
Others 1957 1884 1798 1699 1657 1637 1639 1642 1651 1663 1709 1754
Total 7499 7432 7352 7259 7216 7192 7186 7183 7190 7207 7257 7308
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 0.72 1.01 1.30 1.72 2.54 3.47 4.53 5.53 6.45 7.27 7.05 6.84
Other CO2 GtC 0.73 0.82 0.73 0.97 0.97 0.84 0.58 0.30 0.11 0.03 -0.45 -0.93
Total CO2 GtC 1.45 1.83 2.03 2.69 3.51 4.31 5.11 5.83 6.56 7.30 6.60 5.91
CH4 total MtCH4 77 85 90 100 125 143 152 163 170 171 147 122
N2O total MtN2O-N 1.2 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.7 3.3 3.9 4.2 4.5 4.6 4.8 5.0
SOx total MtS 10.5 12.8 14.7 15.4 15.3 15.0 14.5 10.6 8.2 7.4 8.1 8.8
HFC MtC eq. 0 2 15 39 81 139 184 205 210 210 206 196
PFC MtC eq. 4 4 5 9 14 19 23 26 28 30 31 30
SF6 MtC eq. 3 5 10 14 19 32 40 42 37 23 24 26
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN