IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - A1 MARIA 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 5262 6117 6888 7617 8048 8207 8704 8536 8372 8028 7527 7056
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 19.4 25.8 35.7 51.9 75.4 114.4 179.7 230.1 287.9 355.9 430.8 535.6
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial
Solids 48 37 38 27 19 13 26 48 84 140 207 145
Liquids 138 165 200 252 293 350 403 402 486 481 583 651
Gas 56 66 98 139 189 243 303 345 287 303 213 273
Electricity 35 52 63 79 90 116 157 187 218 256 301 363
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 278 321 399 496 591 723 889 984 1075 1180 1303 1432
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 90 69 61 45 33 24 34 54 87 142 209 146
Oil 123 144 168 201 220 250 285 229 263 208 208 226
Gas 71 105 142 188 246 305 354 399 344 363 279 345
Nuclear 22 29 40 61 99 162 240 321 402 505 625 797
Biomass 28 39 56 88 103 121 132 184 230 278 380 429
Other Renewables 9 8 7 7 6 21 68 71 73 73 71 67
Total 343 393 475 589 706 882 1113 1258 1400 1570 1770 2011
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.9 1.6 2.2 2.6 3.0 3.2 3.5 4.1 5.0 6.4 8.5
Oil 0.0 1.2 2.7 4.4 6.4 8.6 11.1 13.9 16.2 18.8 20.9 23.0
Gas 0.0 0.7 1.8 3.2 5.1 7.5 10.6 14.1 18.1 21.5 25.2 28.0
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 75.3 159.2 251.3 351.6 461.4 584.0 713.4 845.3 983.2 1132.8 1294.3
Carbon Sequestraction GtC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 1451 1451 1605 2000 2174 2222 2355 2080 1810 1539 1278 1162
Grasslands 3395 3395 3245 2850 2676 2604 2601 2593 2597 2597 2597 2597
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 39 43 326 592 872 1572 1932
Forest 4138 4142 4158 4186 4217 4267 4312 4366 4366 4358 3918 3673
Others 4061 4057 4038 4010 3978 3914 3734 3681 3681 3681 3681 3681
Total 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 5.99 6.90 7.77 8.69 9.65 10.93 12.66 12.74 13.45 14.07 14.48 14.24
Other CO2 GtC 1.11 1.07 1.03 0.93 0.79 0.58 0.36 0.13 0.05 0.00 1.38 2.20
Total CO2 GtC 7.10 7.97 8.80 9.61 10.44 11.51 13.01 12.87 13.50 14.07 15.86 16.44
CH4 total MtCH4
N2O total MtN2O-N
SOx total MtS
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 791 337 369 482 566 654 659 654 639 614
PFC MtC eq. 32 25 31 43 61 77 89 97 106 114 119 115
SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 43 48 66 99 119 127 113 88 84 95
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
OECD90 - A1 MARIA 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 859 919 965 1007 1035 1046 1081 1085 1091 1096 1103 1110
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 15.6 18.9 22.7 27.0 32.0 38.2 46.0 57.7 71.3 88.4 105.8 123.9
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial
Solids 12 8 6 4 3 2 7 15 28 49 65 46
Liquids 71 76 71 68 65 64 59 51 80 73 92 89
Gas 28 32 52 70 82 92 99 111 80 80 56 88
Electricity 21 28 31 36 39 42 47 52 59 67 77 87
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 132 145 160 177 188 199 212 230 248 269 290 309
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 38 28 21 16 13 10 12 19 31 51 67 47
Oil 71 77 71 68 65 64 59 51 80 73 92 87
Gas 34 55 80 105 121 135 133 147 120 124 106 143
Nuclear 18 15 18 23 28 35 43 54 68 85 105 131
Biomass 6 4 3 2 1 1 1 0 1 1 2 3
Other Renewables 5 5 4 4 3 3 19 23 24 24 23 21
Total 171 182 198 217 232 247 267 294 323 357 395 431
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.4 3.1
Oil 0.0 0.7 1.5 2.2 2.9 3.5 4.2 4.8 5.3 6.1 6.8 7.7
Gas 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.7 2.7 3.9 5.3 6.6 8.1 9.3 10.5 11.6
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 30.1 62.8 97.2 133.1 169.7 205.3 240.4 278.6 321.5 369.4 420.0
Carbon Sequestraction GtC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 378 378 378 378 378 378 378 378 378 357 295 237
Grasslands 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 21 82 141
Forest 756 756 756 756 756 778 816 834 834 834 834 834
Others 794 794 794 794 794 772 734 716 716 716 716 716
Total 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.31 3.49 3.60 3.71 3.64 3.86 4.34 4.77 5.30 5.25
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.05 0.05 -0.04 -0.19 -0.28 -0.27 -0.26 -0.23 -0.20
Total CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.33 3.55 3.65 3.67 3.44 3.58 4.07 4.51 5.07 5.05
CH4 total MtCH4
N2O total MtN2O-N
SOx total MtS
HFC MtC eq. 19 58 110 108 115 118 122 123 123 124 125 125
PFC MtC eq. 18 13 13 11 9 8 9 10 12 13 14 16
SF6 MtC eq. 23 23 14 5 6 7 9 11 13 16 18 20
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
REF - A1 MARIA 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 413 419 427 433 432 430 423 406 391 374 356 339
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 0.9 1.3 1.8 2.6 4.6 8.1 13.7 18.1 22.4 27.1 32.9 40.4
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial
Solids 13 9 6 4 3 2 3 6 10 17 27 19
Liquids 17 14 12 11 12 13 12 8 14 16 26 23
Gas 21 24 27 30 41 53 65 70 61 54 38 53
Electricity 7 8 7 7 9 11 13 14 15 16 17 18
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 58 55 52 53 65 78 93 98 100 102 107 113
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 19 13 9 6 4 3 4 6 10 17 27 19
Oil 19 14 13 12 12 13 12 8 14 16 26 23
Gas 27 33 34 38 52 66 80 86 77 69 53 69
Nuclear 3 2 3 4 4 5 7 9 11 13 17 21
Biomass 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other Renewables 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 4 4 4 4 4
Total 69 64 60 61 74 89 106 113 116 120 128 136
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.2
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.6
Gas 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.8 2.5 3.3 4.2 4.9 5.6 6.2
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 11.0 19.6 27.5 35.9 46.0 57.9 70.5 83.3 96.3 110.3 124.9
Carbon Sequestraction GtC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 217 217 217 217 217 217 217 174 139 111 89 71
Grasslands 114 114 114 114 114 114 114 114 114 114 114 114
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 43 78 106 128 146
Forest 815 815 815 815 815 815 827 862 862 862 862 862
Others 722 722 722 722 722 722 710 675 675 675 675 675
Total 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.79 0.75 0.93 1.14 1.34 1.43 1.50 1.59 1.82 1.78
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.01 -0.01 -0.03 -0.07 -0.17 -0.21 -0.27 -0.34 -0.33
Total CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.81 0.76 0.92 1.11 1.27 1.26 1.29 1.32 1.47 1.45
CH4 total MtCH4
N2O total MtN2O-N
SOx total MtS
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 8 19 29 31 32 33 33 34 33 31
PFC MtC eq. 7 4 5 8 14 20 21 22 23 24 25 24
SF6 MtC eq. 8 6 8 10 14 18 21 19 15 14 10 11
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
ASIA - A1 MARIA 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 2642 3080 3425 3728 3861 3895 4008 3814 3632 3368 3040 2744
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.2 2.6 5.8 12.5 21.1 36.5 62.9 81.9 104.9 132.1 164.8 210.8
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial
Solids 20 18 24 17 12 8 15 25 41 68 104 73
Liquids 26 42 65 96 121 154 181 183 203 199 211 252
Gas 2 3 4 10 17 27 40 53 44 49 35 57
Electricity 4 9 12 17 18 27 40 51 64 79 97 119
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 52 71 105 140 168 216 276 312 352 395 446 501
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 28 24 28 20 14 10 16 26 42 68 104 73
Oil 14 23 36 48 62 87 111 98 98 70 55 59
Gas 3 5 8 14 22 30 42 54 45 50 35 58
Nuclear 1 12 19 35 34 64 78 104 132 169 214 269
Biomass 13 21 31 51 65 71 73 88 106 130 157 193
Other Renewables 1 1 1 1 1 1 20 20 20 20 20 20
Total 61 86 124 168 197 263 340 389 443 507 585 671
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.6 2.1 2.7 3.8
Oil 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.7 3.8 4.8 5.8 6.5 7.0
Gas 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.8 2.2 2.7 3.1
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 17.8 40.0 64.3 90.0 119.4 155.4 196.1 238.8 283.6 331.3 378.7
Carbon Sequestraction GtC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 366 366 380 380 380 380 380 379 374 335 305 266
Grasslands 431 431 421 421 421 382 379 371 375 375 375 375
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 39 43 52 54 92 122 162
Forest 365 367 381 390 399 406 406 406 406 406 406 406
Others 458 456 440 430 421 414 412 412 412 412 412 412
Total 1621 1621 1621 1621 1621 1621 1621 1621 1621 1621 1621 1621
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.15 1.78 2.20 2.31 2.55 3.08 3.91 4.08 4.36 4.56 4.96 4.58
Other CO2 GtC 0.37 0.26 0.20 0.16 0.13 0.11 0.09 0.06 0.03 0.01 -0.01 -0.03
Total CO2 GtC 1.53 2.03 2.40 2.46 2.68 3.19 4.00 4.14 4.40 4.57 4.95 4.55
CH4 total MtCH4
N2O total MtN2O-N
SOx total MtS
HFC MtC eq. 0 5 18 45 92 153 224 292 292 285 275 262
PFC MtC eq. 3 5 8 15 23 30 35 39 43 46 48 46
SF6 MtC eq. 4 7 12 19 28 42 50 55 48 35 33 37
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
ALM - A1 MARIA 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 1348 1699 2071 2449 2720 2836 3192 3231 3259 3190 3029 2864
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.7 3.0 5.4 9.8 17.6 31.7 57.1 72.4 89.3 108.4 127.4 160.5
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial
Solids 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 4 7 11 8
Liquids 24 34 51 77 95 119 151 160 190 193 253 288
Gas 5 6 15 29 49 72 99 112 101 120 84 75
Electricity 3 8 12 19 25 37 57 69 81 95 111 139
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 35 50 81 126 170 229 308 344 376 414 459 510
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 6 4 3 2 1 1 2 2 4 7 11 8
Oil 18 30 48 73 80 86 103 72 72 50 35 57
Gas 7 12 19 32 51 74 100 113 102 120 84 75
Nuclear 0 0 0 0 33 58 112 154 192 238 289 377
Biomass 8 13 21 35 36 49 59 96 123 147 221 232
Other Renewables 2 2 1 1 1 15 25 25 24 24 24 23
Total 41 60 93 143 204 282 399 461 517 586 664 772
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.5 3.4 4.4 5.1 5.8 6.3 6.7
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 2.0 2.9 4.1 5.1 6.3 7.1
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 16.4 36.8 62.4 92.6 126.2 165.4 206.4 244.6 281.6 321.9 370.7
Carbon Sequestraction GtC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 490 490 630 1025 1199 1247 1380 1150 920 736 589 589
Grasslands 2095 2095 1955 1560 1386 1352 1352 1352 1352 1352 1352 1352
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 231 460 653 1240 1484
Forest 2202 2204 2207 2226 2248 2268 2263 2263 2263 2255 1815 1571
Others 2086 2084 2081 2063 2040 2006 1878 1878 1878 1878 1878 1878
Total 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 0.72 1.01 1.47 2.13 2.57 3.01 3.76 3.37 3.24 3.16 2.41 2.63
Other CO2 GtC 0.73 0.82 0.79 0.71 0.62 0.54 0.54 0.52 0.50 0.51 1.96 2.77
Total CO2 GtC 1.45 1.83 2.26 2.84 3.19 3.54 4.30 3.89 3.74 3.67 4.37 5.40
CH4 total MtCH4
N2O total MtN2O-N
SOx total MtS
HFC MtC eq. 0 2 15 39 81 139 184 205 210 210 206 196
PFC MtC eq. 4 4 5 9 14 19 23 26 28 30 31 30
SF6 MtC eq. 3 5 10 14 19 32 40 42 37 23 24 26
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN