IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - A1C AIM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 5262 6117 6805 7493 8182 8439 8704 8538 8375 8030 7528 7056
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 20.9 26.7 37.9 56.4 89.1 127.2 181.5 235.2 304.7 377.7 447.8 531.0
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 50 48 38 34 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 36 42 69 113 164 187 209 192 175 160 146 133
Liquids 111 118 149 187 230 274 319 356 393 430 467 505
Gas 51 51 74 87 103 122 141 156 172 189 207 224
Electricity 38 49 74 104 150 229 307 429 551 651 731 810
Others 0 0 0 0
Total 285 309 404 525 670 823 976 1134 1291 1430 1551 1671
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 93 112 195 308 474 593 750 820 898 976 1051 1134
Oil 142 155 193 227 244 232 226 193 165 140 118 99
Gas 72 82 112 124 139 161 191 208 230 252 272 294
Nuclear 6 9 15 23 36 52 83 98 118 135 145 155
Biomass 50 48 38 42 55 78 115 147 187 217 228 240
Other Renewables 10 11 13 17 26 44 78 138 249 372 450 546
Total 374 418 565 742 973 1161 1442 1605 1848 2092 2264 2468
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.1 1.1 2.6 5.1 9.1 13.9 21.3 28.0 36.9 46.7 56.5 68.3
Oil 0.1 1.6 3.4 5.5 7.8 9.9 12.5 14.2 16.2 17.8 19.1 20.4
Gas 0.1 0.8 1.8 3.0 4.3 5.7 7.6 9.4 11.6 14.1 16.7 19.7
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 75.3 174.2 313.7 494.6 709.4 958.3 1235.4 1529.2 1841.7 2174.8 2530.6
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 1437 1487 1546 1579 1534 1454 1378 1276 1182 1079 971 873
Grasslands 3290 3287 3477 3874 4235 4271 4307 4231 4157 4056 3930 3808
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 10 227 320 451 535 635 728 807 894
Forest 4249 4120 3975 3808 3742 3778 3813 3896 3981 4071 4166 4264
Others 3966 4048 3944 3671 3205 3097 2994 2984 2974 2995 3048 3102
Total 12942 12942 12942 12942 12942 12942 12942 12942 12942 12942 12942 12942
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 5.99 6.90 10.32 14.34 19.28 22.65 26.79 28.47 30.29 32.30 34.48 36.84
Other CO2 GtC 1.11 1.07 1.47 1.78 0.78 0.23 0.12 0.04 -0.03 -0.07 -0.08 -0.09
Total CO2 GtC 7.10 7.97 11.79 16.12 20.06 22.88 26.91 28.51 30.26 32.23 34.41 36.75
CH4 total MtCH4 310 323 395 479 564 566 568 517 474 442 416 392
N2O total MtN2O-N 6.7 7.0 7.5 8.2 8.2 8.0 7.8 7.3 6.8 6.5 6.3 6.1
SOx total MtS 70.9 69.0 99.1 134.2 156.4 133.1 139.0 103.5 82.0 76.3 79.6 83.3
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 791 337 369 482 566 654 659 654 639 614
PFC MtC eq. 32 25 31 43 61 77 89 97 106 114 119 115
SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 43 48 66 99 119 127 113 88 84 95
CO MtCO 879 877 1101 1320 1402 1506 1619 1710 1806 1937 2110 2298
NMVOC Mt 139 141 179 220 254 254 256 247 239 221 192 167
NOx  MtN 31 32 41 51 59 61 63 61 59 59 61 63
OECD90 - A1C AIM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 859 919 960 1002 1043 1062 1081 1086 1091 1097 1103 1110
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 16.4 20.5 25.3 31.0 38.0 45.3 54.1 64.0 75.7 89.0 103.9 121.2
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 10 10 14 23 31 31 30 26 23 21 19 17
Liquids 64 74 80 87 92 94 96 97 97 102 111 121
Gas 25 31 39 39 37 37 36 36 36 37 39 41
Electricity 22 27 35 42 49 59 68 85 103 118 133 148
Others 0 0 0 0
Total 127 143 168 192 210 220 231 245 259 279 303 327
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 41 42 60 79 102 118 137 148 161 176 196 218
Oil 76 89 94 97 87 70 56 44 35 30 27 24
Gas 34 45 54 50 46 45 44 42 41 41 43 46
Nuclear 5 8 11 15 18 20 21 22 23 24 26 28
Biomass 6 1 0 2 6 11 22 28 36 42 44 46
Other Renewables 6 6 7 9 12 17 24 38 58 78 91 105
Total 167 191 226 251 271 281 304 323 354 391 426 466
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.7 2.6 3.6 5.0 6.2 7.8 9.6 11.4 13.6
Oil 0.1 0.9 1.8 2.8 3.7 4.4 5.1 5.5 6.0 6.4 6.6 6.9
Gas 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.9 2.3 2.8 3.2 3.6 4.1 4.5 4.9
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 30.1 65.0 105.9 152.2 202.2 255.5 310.1 363.8 417.8 474.5 535.2
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 410 404 389 373 345 329 314 285 259 227 192 163
Grasslands 787 758 751 785 817 825 834 812 791 757 711 668
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 47 69 100 112 124 137 149 162
Forest 1056 1065 1102 1131 1168 1174 1179 1217 1257 1304 1360 1418
Others 886 912 897 851 762 737 713 710 706 709 719 729
Total 3140 3140 3140 3140 3140 3140 3140 3140 3140 3140 3140 3140
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.89 4.44 4.94 5.19 5.45 5.42 5.39 5.58 6.00 6.44
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 -0.12 -0.04 -0.09 -0.02 0.05 -0.01 -0.06 -0.10 -0.13 -0.16
Total CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.78 4.40 4.85 5.16 5.50 5.41 5.33 5.47 5.86 6.28
CH4 total MtCH4 73 74 71 73 76 73 69 68 66 65 62 60
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.7
SOx total MtS 22.7 17.0 11.5 9.0 10.0 10.9 12.0 12.5 13.1 13.9 15.0 16.1
HFC MtC eq. 19 58 110 108 115 118 122 123 123 124 125 125
PFC MtC eq. 18 13 13 11 9 8 9 10 12 13 14 16
SF6 MtC eq. 23 23 14 5 6 7 9 11 13 16 18 20
CO MtCO 179 161 186 213 241 256 271 277 284 300 329 359
NMVOC Mt 42 36 39 40 39 33 29 21 14 11 11 10
NOx  MtN 13 12 12 13 12 10 9 9 9 9 10 11
REF - A1C AIM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 413 419 424 430 435 429 423 406 391 374 356 339
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.1 0.8 1.5 2.8 5.3 8.1 12.3 15.5 19.4 23.8 28.5 34.1
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 9 7 10 14 18 18 19 17 14 12 11 10
Liquids 19 9 8 8 8 10 12 13 14 15 17 18
Gas 19 11 14 14 14 15 16 17 18 19 21 23
Electricity 8 9 11 12 15 22 29 36 43 49 53 57
Others 0 0 0 0
Total 58 40 43 48 55 65 76 82 89 95 102 109
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 18 16 22 27 39 57 84 98 115 131 145 160
Oil 22 12 10 8 6 4 3 2 1 1 1 0
Gas 26 17 18 17 15 15 15 14 14 14 14 15
Nuclear 1 1 2 3 5 7 9 10 10 10 11 11
Biomass 2 4 0 0 1 3 5 7 8 10 10 11
Other Renewables 1 1 1 2 2 4 10 15 24 32 36 40
Total 70 52 54 57 68 90 125 146 173 198 216 237
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.4 2.2 3.0 4.1 5.3 6.7 8.3
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Gas 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.8
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 11.0 21.2 32.9 46.5 63.1 84.3 109.5 137.9 169.9 206.0 246.9
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 279 284 297 299 305 293 282 267 253 233 210 189
Grasslands 346 357 401 468 556 571 586 585 584 571 548 525
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 6 11 22 25 29 38 55 80
Forest 960 961 950 950 944 950 955 966 978 993 1010 1028
Others 720 703 658 588 494 477 460 460 460 464 474 483
Total 2305 2305 2305 2305 2305 2305 2305 2305 2305 2305 2305 2305
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 1.09 1.22 1.45 1.86 2.39 2.69 3.03 3.42 3.88 4.39
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.01 0.02 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.03 -0.04 -0.05
Total CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 1.12 1.23 1.48 1.86 2.38 2.67 3.00 3.39 3.84 4.34
CH4 total MtCH4 47 39 50 62 77 80 84 91 99 103 105 106
N2O total MtN2O-N 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5
SOx total MtS 17.0 11.0 14.7 15.6 16.1 12.7 10.0 9.9 9.7 10.6 12.6 14.8
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 8 19 29 31 32 33 33 34 33 31
PFC MtC eq. 7 4 5 8 14 20 21 22 23 24 25 24
SF6 MtC eq. 8 6 8 10 14 18 21 19 15 14 10 11
CO MtCO 69 41 40 42 46 50 54 57 59 63 68 75
NMVOC Mt 16 13 14 11 11 9 8 7 6 5 5 5
NOx  MtN 5 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2
ASIA - A1C AIM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 2798 3261 3556 3851 4147 4183 4220 4016 3822 3541 3194 2882
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.5 2.7 5.8 12.3 26.3 40.8 63.1 85.8 116.7 148.3 176.1 209.1
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 28 24 19 14 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 15 23 40 62 90 103 116 107 97 89 81 73
Liquids 11 15 26 40 55 69 84 102 119 135 148 161
Gas 2 3 6 9 18 25 32 41 50 59 67 75
Electricity 5 7 16 29 54 83 113 167 220 264 298 333
Others 0 0 0 0
Total 61 72 106 154 220 283 345 416 487 546 594 642
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 30 44 85 144 234 275 324 350 379 407 435 465
Oil 17 21 34 46 56 51 47 40 33 28 22 18
Gas 4 6 11 13 23 31 42 54 68 81 91 101
Nuclear 0 0 1 3 7 12 22 31 43 54 58 64
Biomass 28 24 19 16 11 17 27 34 43 50 52 55
Other Renewables 1 2 2 2 3 6 13 30 69 120 159 210
Total 80 98 151 224 334 393 475 538 636 740 818 913
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.4 1.0 2.2 4.1 6.3 9.6 12.6 16.3 20.4 24.5 29.4
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.8 2.4 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.7 4.0
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.5 2.2 2.9 3.7 4.8
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 17.8 45.7 90.7 157.4 241.5 337.0 442.3 555.2 675.9 804.4 940.9
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 390 407 433 458 447 422 398 368 340 313 288 265
Grasslands 521 524 547 595 644 650 656 645 633 622 611 600
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 42 61 89 108 130 149 163 179
Forest 527 490 451 416 404 415 427 446 466 482 493 505
Others 576 593 583 546 478 461 444 443 442 446 455 465
Total 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.15 1.78 3.15 4.99 7.65 8.78 10.08 10.83 11.62 12.41 13.17 13.97
Other CO2 GtC 0.37 0.26 0.40 0.46 0.24 0.15 0.09 0.07 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.09
Total CO2 GtC 1.53 2.03 3.55 5.45 7.89 8.93 10.17 10.89 11.68 12.47 13.24 14.06
CH4 total MtCH4 113 125 165 211 262 262 261 220 184 162 149 137
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.3 2.6 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5
SOx total MtS 17.7 25.3 47.2 72.2 80.0 39.4 19.2 19.7 20.2 21.1 22.4 23.8
HFC MtC eq. 0 5 18 45 92 153 224 292 292 285 275 262
PFC MtC eq. 3 5 8 15 23 30 35 39 43 46 48 46
SF6 MtC eq. 4 7 12 19 28 42 50 55 48 35 33 37
CO MtCO 235 270 389 509 599 663 734 777 822 881 956 1036
NMVOC Mt 33 37 54 77 93 97 102 104 105 98 84 71
NOx  MtN 7 9 13 19 25 26 26 25 23 23 23 23
ALM - A1C AIM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 1192 1519 1865 2211 2557 2761 2980 3024 3067 3013 2866 2727
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.9 2.7 5.3 10.2 19.5 31.9 52.0 69.3 92.4 116.6 139.4 166.6
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 14 18 19 20 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 1 2 6 14 25 35 45 43 41 38 35 32
Liquids 17 21 35 52 75 101 127 145 163 179 191 204
Gas 4 7 15 25 34 45 57 62 68 74 80 85
Electricity 4 6 12 21 32 64 97 141 185 220 246 273
Others 0 0 0 0
Total 40 53 87 132 185 255 325 391 457 510 552 594
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 5 11 28 58 99 143 205 223 243 261 275 291
Oil 27 33 55 75 95 107 120 107 95 82 69 57
Gas 9 14 29 44 55 71 90 98 107 115 124 132
Nuclear 0 0 1 3 6 14 31 36 42 47 50 53
Biomass 14 18 19 25 36 47 61 78 100 116 122 128
Other Renewables 2 2 3 5 8 16 31 55 98 142 164 191
Total 57 78 135 209 300 397 538 598 686 762 803 852
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.6 4.5 6.3 8.7 11.4 13.9 1.7
Oil 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.3 3.2 4.4 5.3 6.4 7.4 8.1 6.7
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.7 3.5 4.5 5.7 6.8 12.5
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 16.4 42.2 84.2 138.7 202.5 281.4 373.4 472.3 578.0 689.9 807.5
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 357 391 427 449 437 410 384 356 330 305 280 257
Grasslands 1636 1648 1778 2027 2217 2224 2231 2190 2149 2106 2060 2015
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 10 132 178 240 290 351 402 436 473
Forest 1706 1604 1472 1311 1226 1239 1253 1266 1279 1292 1303 1314
Others 1784 1840 1806 1687 1471 1423 1376 1371 1366 1376 1400 1425
Total 5483 5483 5483 5483 5483 5483 5483 5483 5483 5483 5483 5483
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 0.72 1.01 2.20 3.69 5.24 6.82 8.87 9.53 10.24 10.89 11.44 12.03
Other CO2 GtC 0.73 0.82 1.15 1.36 0.61 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04
Total CO2 GtC 1.45 1.83 3.34 5.05 5.85 6.93 8.86 9.53 10.25 10.90 11.47 12.06
CH4 total MtCH4 77 85 108 132 148 151 154 139 125 112 99 88
N2O total MtN2O-N 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
SOx total MtS 10.5 12.8 22.7 34.4 47.2 67.1 94.8 58.4 36.1 27.7 26.6 25.6
HFC MtC eq. 0 2 15 39 81 139 184 205 210 210 206 196
PFC MtC eq. 4 4 5 9 14 19 23 26 28 30 31 30
SF6 MtC eq. 3 5 10 14 19 32 40 42 37 23 24 26
CO MtCO 396 404 486 556 516 537 560 599 641 693 757 827
NMVOC Mt 48 55 73 92 111 114 117 115 113 106 93 82
NOx  MtN 7 8 11 16 19 21 24 24 24 25 26 27