IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - A1T MARIA 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 5262 6117 6888 7617 8048 8207 8704 8536 8372 8028 7527 7056
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 19.4 25.9 35.9 52.0 75.1 113.5 177.4 226.2 282.1 347.5 418.0 518.5
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial
Solids 48 38 39 27 19 13 9 11 17 26 39 27
Liquids 138 152 185 234 269 310 357 363 429 416 475 512
Gas 56 65 84 110 156 201 250 278 213 232 177 179
Electricity 35 48 56 67 80 96 128 148 160 177 197 215
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 278 302 364 439 525 621 744 800 819 852 888 934
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 90 69 61 44 32 23 16 16 21 29 41 29
Oil 123 132 154 187 190 213 239 190 209 152 169 190
Gas 71 101 134 169 222 266 303 331 268 289 235 239
Nuclear 22 28 33 44 72 117 162 225 252 298 351 404
Biomass 28 31 41 64 100 111 128 180 227 270 313 329
Other Renewables 9 8 7 7 6 17 65 67 69 69 67 65
Total 343 370 431 515 620 747 913 1010 1044 1106 1175 1255
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.9 1.6 2.2 2.6 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.7 4.0 4.4
Oil 0.0 1.2 2.5 4.1 6.0 7.9 10.0 12.4 14.3 16.4 17.9 19.6
Gas 0.0 0.7 1.7 3.1 4.8 7.0 9.6 12.7 16.0 18.7 21.5 23.9
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 75.3 158.7 249.1 345.2 447.3 556.5 665.0 766.4 861.5 952.1 1042.3
Carbon Sequestraction GtC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 1451 1451 1613 2001 2170 2213 2344 2069 1802 1545 1287 1182
Grasslands 3395 3395 3236 2851 2682 2645 2606 2597 2597 2597 2597 2597
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 324 592 848 1107 1212
Forest 4138 4142 4157 4177 4208 4244 4301 4374 4375 4375 4375 4375
Others 4061 4057 4039 4017 3985 3944 3754 3681 3681 3681 3681 3681
Total 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 5.99 6.90 7.66 8.41 8.95 9.88 10.80 10.25 9.76 9.15 8.98 9.14
Other CO2 GtC 1.11 1.07 1.04 0.99 0.87 0.70 0.47 0.18 0.09 0.03 -0.04 -0.04
Total CO2 GtC 7.10 7.97 8.70 9.39 9.82 10.58 11.26 10.43 9.85 9.18 8.94 9.10
CH4 total MtCH4
N2O total MtN2O-N
SOx total MtS
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 791 337 369 482 566 654 659 654 639 614
PFC MtC eq. 32 25 31 43 61 77 89 97 106 114 119 115
SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 43 48 66 99 119 127 113 88 84 95
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
OECD90 - A1T MARIA 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 859 919 965 1007 1035 1046 1081 1085 1091 1096 1103 1110
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 15.6 18.9 22.8 27.1 32.0 38.1 45.7 57.0 70.0 86.1 102.5 119.9
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial
Solids 12 8 6 4 3 2 1 5 11 19 30 21
Liquids 71 64 57 53 51 49 49 47 74 58 76 71
Gas 28 35 48 57 65 70 75 84 60 78 55 74
Electricity 21 25 27 29 31 32 36 40 45 51 57 63
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 132 133 139 144 150 154 161 176 190 206 219 229
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 38 28 20 15 12 9 6 9 13 21 32 22
Oil 71 64 58 53 51 49 49 47 74 58 76 70
Gas 34 53 73 85 97 105 101 111 91 112 94 114
Nuclear 18 15 12 15 18 23 29 36 45 56 68 83
Biomass 6 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 5
Other Renewables 5 5 4 4 3 3 16 20 21 21 20 18
Total 171 168 170 175 183 190 202 223 245 270 292 313
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.0
Oil 0.0 0.7 1.4 1.9 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.4 5.2 5.8 6.5
Gas 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.6 2.4 3.4 4.5 5.5 6.6 7.5 8.6 9.5
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 30.1 62.2 94.3 126.8 159.6 190.8 220.8 252.7 287.3 324.9 364.4
Carbon Sequestraction GtC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 378 378 378 378 378 378 378 378 378 331 266 213
Grasslands 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 47 112 164
Forest 756 756 756 756 756 756 796 834 834 834 834 834
Others 794 794 794 794 794 794 754 716 716 716 716 716
Total 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.19 3.16 3.20 3.21 3.09 3.27 3.62 3.81 4.17 4.12
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.05 0.08 0.05 -0.10 -0.25 -0.27 -0.24 -0.21 -0.19
Total CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.22 3.21 3.28 3.27 2.99 3.02 3.35 3.57 3.96 3.94
CH4 total MtCH4
N2O total MtN2O-N
SOx total MtS
HFC MtC eq. 19 58 110 108 115 118 122 123 123 124 125 125
PFC MtC eq. 18 13 13 11 9 8 9 10 12 13 14 16
SF6 MtC eq. 23 23 14 5 6 7 9 11 13 16 18 20
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
REF - A1T MARIA 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 413 419 427 433 432 430 423 406 391 374 356 339
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 0.9 1.3 1.8 2.6 4.5 7.9 13.4 17.6 21.7 26.1 31.5 38.7
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial
Solids 13 9 6 4 3 2 2 2 3 5 7 5
Liquids 17 13 12 11 12 13 13 12 15 11 17 28
Gas 21 23 26 30 41 52 64 69 66 68 61 53
Electricity 7 8 7 7 9 11 13 14 15 15 16 16
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 58 53 51 53 65 78 92 98 99 99 101 102
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 19 13 9 6 4 3 2 2 3 6 7 5
Oil 19 14 12 11 12 13 14 13 15 11 17 28
Gas 27 31 34 39 53 68 81 88 85 86 79 70
Nuclear 3 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 7 8 10 13
Biomass 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Other Renewables 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 4 4 4 4 3
Total 69 63 58 60 73 89 105 112 114 115 118 121
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5
Gas 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.8 2.5 3.3 4.2 5.1 5.9 6.7
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 11.0 19.7 27.9 37.0 48.0 60.8 74.3 87.7 100.9 113.7 126.8
Carbon Sequestraction GtC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 217 217 217 217 217 217 217 174 139 111 89 78
Grasslands 114 114 114 114 114 114 114 114 114 114 114 114
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 43 78 106 128 139
Forest 815 815 815 815 815 815 827 862 862 862 862 862
Others 722 722 722 722 722 722 710 675 675 675 675 675
Total 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.80 0.80 0.97 1.19 1.38 1.46 1.50 1.48 1.54 1.58
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.01 -0.03 -0.12 -0.15 -0.20 -0.25 -0.24
Total CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.82 0.83 1.00 1.20 1.35 1.34 1.35 1.29 1.28 1.34
CH4 total MtCH4
N2O total MtN2O-N
SOx total MtS
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 8 19 29 31 32 33 33 34 33 31
PFC MtC eq. 7 4 5 8 14 20 21 22 23 24 25 24
SF6 MtC eq. 8 6 8 10 14 18 21 19 15 14 10 11
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
ASIA - A1T MARIA 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 2642 3080 3425 3728 3861 3895 4008 3814 3632 3368 3040 2744
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.2 2.6 5.8 12.3 20.8 35.9 61.8 80.3 102.5 128.8 159.8 204.1
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial
Solids 20 18 25 17 12 8 6 4 3 2 2 1
Liquids 26 42 65 97 120 146 168 172 190 200 212 214
Gas 2 3 4 8 16 25 35 41 29 24 17 22
Electricity 4 9 11 16 19 24 34 41 46 52 59 64
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 52 72 106 139 168 203 243 257 267 277 289 301
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 28 24 29 20 14 10 7 5 3 2 2 1
Oil 14 23 36 51 51 72 92 72 56 39 45 41
Gas 3 5 8 14 20 28 38 42 30 25 17 22
Nuclear 1 12 18 26 28 50 55 79 89 103 122 133
Biomass 13 21 31 51 80 81 81 104 137 162 168 174
Other Renewables 1 1 1 1 1 1 20 20 20 20 20 20
Total 61 86 124 163 195 243 293 322 335 352 373 391
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4
Oil 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.3 1.8 2.5 3.4 4.1 4.7 5.1 5.5
Gas 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.3
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 17.8 40.0 64.6 89.4 115.7 146.5 177.4 203.4 224.3 242.5 260.4
Carbon Sequestraction GtC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 366 366 380 380 380 380 380 377 373 336 305 263
Grasslands 431 431 421 423 423 423 384 375 375 375 375 375
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 52 57 93 124 167
Forest 365 367 380 388 397 404 404 404 404 404 404 404
Others 458 456 440 430 421 414 412 412 412 412 412 412
Total 1621 1621 1621 1621 1621 1621 1621 1621 1621 1621 1621 1621
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.15 1.78 2.20 2.36 2.31 2.73 3.21 2.82 2.27 1.83 1.81 1.80
Other CO2 GtC 0.37 0.26 0.20 0.16 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.07 0.04 0.02 0.00 -0.03
Total CO2 GtC 1.53 2.03 2.40 2.53 2.44 2.83 3.31 2.89 2.32 1.85 1.80 1.77
CH4 total MtCH4
N2O total MtN2O-N
SOx total MtS
HFC MtC eq. 0 5 18 45 92 153 224 292 292 285 275 262
PFC MtC eq. 3 5 8 15 23 30 35 39 43 46 48 46
SF6 MtC eq. 4 7 12 19 28 42 50 55 48 35 33 37
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
ALM - A1T MARIA 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 1348 1699 2071 2449 2720 2836 3192 3231 3259 3190 3029 2864
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.7 3.1 5.5 10.0 17.8 31.7 56.5 71.4 87.9 106.5 124.2 155.9
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial
Solids 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Liquids 24 33 50 72 86 103 127 132 150 148 171 199
Gas 5 4 6 14 35 54 75 84 59 63 44 31
Electricity 3 6 10 15 21 29 45 53 54 59 65 72
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 35 45 68 103 143 186 247 268 263 270 280 302
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 6 4 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
Oil 18 30 48 71 75 79 84 59 63 44 31 50
Gas 7 12 19 32 51 65 83 90 63 65 46 32
Nuclear 0 0 0 0 23 40 74 105 112 130 151 174
Biomass 8 6 7 11 18 28 46 75 88 105 141 149
Other Renewables 2 2 1 1 1 12 25 24 25 24 24 24
Total 41 53 79 117 170 226 313 353 351 369 392 430
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.4 3.2 4.1 4.6 5.3 5.7 6.0
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.9 2.7 3.6 4.2 4.9 5.3
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 16.4 36.8 62.3 92.0 123.9 158.4 192.4 222.6 249.1 270.9 290.7
Carbon Sequestraction GtC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 490 490 639 1026 1195 1238 1370 1141 913 767 627 627
Grasslands 2095 2095 1946 1559 1390 1352 1352 1352 1352 1352 1352 1352
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 229 457 603 742 742
Forest 2202 2204 2207 2218 2241 2268 2274 2274 2274 2274 2274 2274
Others 2086 2084 2081 2070 2047 2014 1878 1878 1878 1878 1878 1878
Total 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 0.72 1.01 1.47 2.09 2.47 2.74 3.12 2.70 2.37 2.03 1.46 1.64
Other CO2 GtC 0.73 0.82 0.79 0.74 0.64 0.54 0.50 0.48 0.47 0.45 0.43 0.42
Total CO2 GtC 1.45 1.83 2.26 2.83 3.11 3.28 3.62 3.19 2.84 2.48 1.89 2.05
CH4 total MtCH4
N2O total MtN2O-N
SOx total MtS
HFC MtC eq. 0 2 15 39 81 139 184 205 210 210 206 196
PFC MtC eq. 4 4 5 9 14 19 23 26 28 30 31 30
SF6 MtC eq. 3 5 10 14 19 32 40 42 37 23 24 26
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN