IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - A2 AIM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 5262 6132 7165 8198 9231 10208 11287 12008 12776 13536 14281 15068
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 20.1 25.1 31.8 40.2 50.7 63.9 80.7 101.2 126.9 157.7 194.3 239.4
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 50 57 69 68 69 62 55 36 24 0 0 0
Solids 36 48 65 79 95 108 121 131 141 150 157 165
Liquids 111 115 135 162 190 204 220 244 270 308 360 421
Gas 51 56 80 101 129 147 167 177 186 201 220 241
Electricity 38 51 69 88 116 145 181 226 283 348 420 507
Others
Total 285 327 418 499 599 668 744 824 911 1024 1169 1334
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 93 119 177 230 301 344 396 477 575 692 837 1016
Oil 143 155 179 182 176 163 152 134 121 107 92 80
Gas 73 96 133 170 216 244 276 292 309 334 368 406
Nuclear 6 9 11 14 16 27 48 65 88 116 150 195
Biomass 50 48 38 66 99 119 143 161 181 194 199 203
Other Renewables 10 11 13 15 20 25 31 45 67 91 112 140
Total 376 438 551 677 829 921 1046 1173 1341 1535 1758 2040
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.1 1.2 2.6 4.7 7.3 10.2 14.3 18.5 23.9 30.4 38.1 47.7
Oil 0.1 1.6 3.3 5.1 6.9 8.3 10.2 11.4 12.7 14.0 14.9 16.0
Gas 0.1 0.9 2.1 3.6 5.5 7.6 10.4 12.9 16.0 19.4 22.8 26.9
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 75.3 166.3 274.2 399.6 544.8 707.5 891.0 1098.6 1335.8 1610.5 1930.7
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 1459 1484 1518 1551 1586 1623 1660 1702 1744 1787 1833 1879
Grasslands 3389 3411 3446 3478 3510 3546 3582 3611 3640 3664 3683 3701
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 89 194 252 311 316 322 314 291 268
Forest 4296 4248 4217 4254 4301 4307 4314 4306 4299 4292 4285 4277
Others 3805 3805 3768 3577 3359 3220 3082 3013 2944 2892 2858 2823
Total 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 5.99 6.90 9.30 11.29 13.70 15.05 16.60 18.73 21.20 24.41 28.56 33.43
Other CO2 GtC 1.11 1.07 0.92 0.07 0.02 0.26 0.64 0.74 0.87 0.97 1.00 1.04
Total CO2 GtC 7.10 7.97 10.22 11.36 13.72 15.31 17.23 19.47 22.07 25.38 29.56 34.47
CH4 total MtCH4 310 323 362 385 412 422 434 457 481 505 526 549
N2O total MtN2O-N 6.7 7.0 7.3 7.4 7.6 7.9 8.1 8.4 8.8 9.1 9.5 9.8
SOx total MtS 70.9 69.0 86.7 105.0 132.8 135.1 140.7 151.9 165.1 148.0 113.3 92.9
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 785 292 258 291 312 384 457 549 662 753
PFC MtC eq. 32 25 41 51 64 77 92 113 129 148 168 178
SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 50 64 75 89 104 122 129 135 153 165
CO MtCO 879 877 983 952 1029 1101 1179 1268 1366 1500 1679 1881
NMVOC Mt 139 141 183 205 230 225 221 208 197 186 177 169
NOx  MtN 31 32 37 42 47 48 50 53 56 60 65 71
OECD90 - A2 AIM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 859 914 966 1018 1071 1111 1152 1218 1288 1357 1425 1496
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 15.3 18.6 21.9 25.5 29.7 34.2 39.4 45.8 53.2 62.3 73.4 86.6
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 6 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 10 14 16 18 20 21 21 22 23 23 24 25
Liquids 64 69 72 82 88 87 87 88 89 95 106 118
Gas 25 31 38 44 49 51 52 52 51 53 57 61
Electricity 22 27 32 37 44 50 57 66 76 88 102 118
Others
Total 127 142 158 181 201 209 217 228 240 259 289 322
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 41 46 60 70 80 86 92 106 122 147 187 238
Oil 76 83 84 84 74 61 50 36 26 19 13 9
Gas 34 46 54 62 70 72 75 73 71 73 79 85
Nuclear 5 7 8 9 9 11 14 18 22 28 35 45
Biomass 6 1 0 6 15 20 27 31 35 37 38 39
Other Renewables 6 6 7 8 10 12 13 18 23 28 31 34
Total 167 189 211 238 257 262 272 281 299 331 383 450
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.4 3.1 4.1 5.1 6.2 7.6 9.4 11.5
Oil 0.1 0.9 1.7 2.5 3.3 3.9 4.6 4.9 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.9
Gas 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.2 2.8 3.6 4.3 5.0 5.8 6.5 7.4
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 30.1 63.9 101.2 141.9 185.2 230.6 277.8 326.6 378.4 436.9 504.5
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 381 384 391 398 405 413 422 432 442 453 465 477
Grasslands 760 765 775 786 797 813 830 841 853 860 864 867
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 17 37 48 59 61 62 60 56 51
Forest 1050 1062 1080 1109 1137 1137 1136 1136 1135 1133 1131 1128
Others 838 818 783 720 652 617 582 560 537 522 513 504
Total 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.62 4.08 4.41 4.48 4.55 4.70 4.86 5.32 6.17 7.15
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 -0.07 -0.18 -0.18 -0.04 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10
Total CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.55 3.90 4.23 4.44 4.65 4.80 4.95 5.42 6.27 7.26
CH4 total MtCH4 73 74 74 74 75 69 64 66 67 70 73 76
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.2
SOx total MtS 22.7 17.0 11.1 8.6 9.2 9.6 10.1 11.0 12.0 13.7 16.1 19.0
HFC MtC eq. 19 57 107 103 111 116 125 130 135 142 151 160
PFC MtC eq. 18 13 14 14 14 14 14 13 11 13 15 17
SF6 MtC eq. 23 23 25 28 29 29 28 26 20 12 14 16
CO MtCO 179 161 189 216 251 265 280 294 307 331 365 404
NMVOC Mt 42 36 37 38 39 35 32 26 21 20 22 24
NOx  MtN 13 12 12 12 12 10 9 9 10 10 11 13
REF - A2 AIM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 413 428 444 460 476 497 519 555 593 630 667 706
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.5 2.0 2.7 3.7 4.9 6.4 8.4 10.8 13.9
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 2 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 9 7 10 11 13 14 15 15 16 16 16 17
Liquids 19 9 8 8 8 8 7 8 9 10 12 14
Gas 19 13 18 22 27 31 36 37 39 42 46 51
Electricity 8 9 12 14 16 20 25 30 37 44 52 61
Others
Total 58 43 48 55 64 72 82 91 101 113 127 143
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 18 17 23 28 33 36 39 49 62 83 118 166
Oil 22 13 11 10 9 8 7 5 3 2 1 1
Gas 26 21 27 32 37 40 44 46 47 51 56 61
Nuclear 1 1 2 2 2 4 7 9 12 15 19 24
Biomass 2 4 0 1 3 5 6 7 8 9 9 9
Other Renewables 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 5 7 10 13 16
Total 71 58 63 75 85 94 106 121 141 170 215 277
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.7 3.5 4.6 6.0
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8
Gas 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.9 2.3 2.8 3.3 3.9 4.5
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 11.0 21.2 32.7 45.2 59.4 75.3 93.5 114.9 140.5 172.2 212.1
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 268 270 276 282 288 295 302 309 317 325 333 341
Grasslands 341 362 366 370 373 376 379 382 385 387 390 392
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 4 9 11 14 14 14 14 13 12
Forest 966 950 936 938 941 942 942 936 929 924 920 915
Others 701 694 698 682 665 651 638 634 630 626 621 615
Total 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 1.11 1.30 1.47 1.59 1.73 1.98 2.27 2.73 3.45 4.36
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.01 -0.14 -0.12 -0.09 -0.05 -0.01 0.04 0.07 0.08 0.10
Total CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 1.13 1.16 1.35 1.50 1.68 1.97 2.31 2.80 3.54 4.45
CH4 total MtCH4 47 39 48 47 45 46 46 53 60 69 79 90
N2O total MtN2O-N 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9
SOx total MtS 17.0 11.0 14.8 17.4 15.3 10.4 7.0 6.4 5.9 6.8 9.5 13.0
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 8 13 20 27 31 37 41 44 48 52
PFC MtC eq. 7 4 8 10 14 17 20 25 30 35 40 42
SF6 MtC eq. 8 6 7 10 12 15 19 24 28 32 36 38
CO MtCO 69 41 41 43 46 47 48 50 53 57 62 68
NMVOC Mt 16 13 14 14 14 13 13 13 12 12 12 12
NOx  MtN 5 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3
ASIA - A2 AIM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 2798 3278 3783 4288 4793 5255 5762 6065 6385 6701 7013 7339
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.4 2.3 3.4 5.1 7.4 10.4 14.5 19.4 25.9 33.7 42.9 54.7
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 28 31 37 35 35 30 26 14 7 0 0 0
Solids 15 24 33 41 50 57 67 72 79 84 90 95
Liquids 11 16 22 30 41 47 54 62 71 83 99 118
Gas 2 3 6 9 14 17 21 24 26 28 30 31
Electricity 5 8 14 21 33 42 55 72 94 119 147 181
Others
Total 61 82 114 136 172 196 223 250 281 320 369 426
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 30 46 72 95 130 148 168 203 245 291 338 393
Oil 17 24 34 37 38 36 33 28 24 20 15 11
Gas 4 9 16 23 36 46 58 64 71 78 85 92
Nuclear 0 1 1 2 3 7 15 21 30 40 53 70
Biomass 28 24 19 21 21 26 33 37 42 45 46 47
Other Renewables 1 2 2 2 4 5 7 12 20 29 37 48
Total 80 106 144 180 233 267 314 365 431 502 574 662
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.8 3.0 4.2 6.0 7.7 10.0 12.7 15.8 19.7
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.6 2.1 2.8 3.6 4.4 5.3
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 17.8 42.7 74.4 114.7 164.6 221.9 288.3 365.1 453.7 555.2 671.2
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 438 440 451 462 473 485 497 509 522 535 549 562
Grasslands 608 607 612 616 621 625 629 633 637 641 644 648
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 21 45 58 72 73 74 72 67 61
Forest 535 523 515 529 542 544 546 546 547 548 548 548
Others 583 593 586 537 484 452 421 402 384 368 356 344
Total 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.15 1.78 2.68 3.44 4.59 5.16 5.80 6.71 7.77 8.96 10.30 11.83
Other CO2 GtC 0.37 0.26 0.26 -0.03 0.07 0.16 0.37 0.41 0.47 0.51 0.53 0.55
Total CO2 GtC 1.53 2.03 2.94 3.41 4.65 5.31 6.16 7.12 8.24 9.47 10.83 12.38
CH4 total MtCH4 113 125 141 154 171 181 192 203 214 223 229 236
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.8
SOx total MtS 17.7 25.3 38.6 52.7 71.2 70.2 69.2 70.0 70.7 56.8 36.3 23.4
HFC MtC eq. 0 5 11 18 27 38 54 77 100 130 167 204
PFC MtC eq. 3 5 11 15 20 25 32 42 49 56 64 67
SF6 MtC eq. 4 7 11 16 20 27 34 43 49 55 62 67
CO MtCO 235 270 304 302 352 383 417 452 491 543 615 696
NMVOC Mt 33 37 51 60 70 69 69 65 62 57 52 47
NOx  MtN 7 9 11 14 17 19 21 22 22 23 24 25
ALM - A2 AIM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 1192 1512 1972 2432 2892 3338 3854 4169 4510 4847 5176 5527
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 2.4 3.4 5.4 8.1 11.5 16.3 23.1 30.8 41.1 53.2 66.9 84.2
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 14 20 31 33 34 32 29 22 17 0 0 0
Solids 1 3 6 9 13 16 19 21 24 26 27 29
Liquids 17 22 33 42 53 62 72 85 100 119 143 171
Gas 4 9 18 27 39 48 58 64 70 78 87 97
Electricity 4 7 11 16 23 32 44 58 76 96 119 146
Others
Total 40 60 99 126 163 190 221 253 289 332 384 444
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 5 10 23 37 58 75 97 119 145 171 194 220
Oil 27 35 50 52 55 59 62 65 67 66 62 58
Gas 9 20 37 53 74 86 100 109 120 133 149 167
Nuclear 0 0 1 1 2 5 12 17 24 33 43 56
Biomass 14 18 19 37 60 68 76 86 97 104 106 109
Other Renewables 2 2 3 3 4 6 7 11 17 24 31 41
Total 57 85 132 184 254 297 354 406 470 531 586 651
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.6 3.6 4.9 6.5 8.3 1.7
Oil 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.3 3.0 3.6 4.2 4.9 5.5 6.7
Gas 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.2 3.3 4.2 5.4 6.7 8.1 12.5
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 16.4 38.5 65.9 97.8 135.6 179.6 231.2 292.0 363.2 446.3 542.8
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 371 390 400 409 419 430 440 451 462 474 486 498
Grasslands 1680 1677 1693 1706 1719 1732 1744 1755 1765 1775 1785 1794
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 47 103 134 166 169 172 168 155 143
Forest 1745 1712 1686 1678 1680 1685 1689 1689 1688 1687 1686 1685
Others 1684 1700 1701 1639 1558 1499 1440 1416 1392 1376 1368 1359
Total 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 0.72 1.01 1.88 2.47 3.23 3.83 4.52 5.34 6.29 7.39 8.64 10.10
Other CO2 GtC 0.73 0.82 0.71 0.42 0.26 0.24 0.22 0.24 0.27 0.30 0.29 0.28
Total CO2 GtC 1.45 1.83 2.59 2.89 3.49 4.06 4.75 5.58 6.57 7.69 8.93 10.38
CH4 total MtCH4 77 85 99 109 121 126 131 135 140 143 145 148
N2O total MtN2O-N 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0
SOx total MtS 10.5 12.8 19.3 23.4 34.2 42.0 51.4 61.5 73.5 67.8 48.3 34.5
HFC MtC eq. 0 2 19 32 49 69 98 139 181 233 295 336
PFC MtC eq. 4 4 8 12 16 21 26 34 39 45 50 52
SF6 MtC eq. 3 5 7 10 13 18 23 29 32 37 41 43
CO MtCO 396 404 449 391 380 405 434 472 516 569 636 714
NMVOC Mt 48 55 80 94 107 107 107 104 102 97 91 86
NOx  MtN 7 8 10 12 14 15 17 19 21 24 27 30