IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - A2 MINICAM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 5293 6208 7174 8192 9250 10284 11296 12238 13108 13905 14508 15124
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 20.7 27.4 35.4 44.7 55.6 69.5 86.4 108.7 135.2 165.9 204.1 246.6
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 45 58 73 88 100 114 131 131 136 145 150 155
Liquids 121 125 131 139 136 150 183 216 257 306 354 403
Gas 52 62 72 80 82 77 67 64 66 71 66 62
Electricity 35 53 78 109 144 190 246 320 410 517 643 769
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 253 299 353 416 462 532 628 732 869 1039 1214 1388
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 88 117 144 170 239 325 429 529 629 729 858 988
Oil 131 135 139 144 111 91 84 69 68 79 72 64
Gas 70 84 113 155 173 181 179 186 201 222 202 183
Nuclear 24 25 30 39 53 71 93 105 123 148 181 214
Biomass 0 6 11 17 25 37 52 77 99 116 139 163
Other Renewables 24 24 27 31 39 52 70 108 153 206 279 353
Total 336 392 465 556 640 757 907 1074 1272 1501 1732 1964
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.1 1.2 2.5 4.0 6.3 9.2 12.8 17.9 23.7 30.3 38.6 46.9
Oil 0.1 1.5 2.8 4.3 5.4 6.5 7.3 8.1 8.8 9.5 10.2 11.0
Gas 0.1 0.9 1.9 3.2 4.9 6.6 8.4 10.3 12.2 14.3 16.4 18.4
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 75.3 160.8 260.5 375.7 506.4 656.9 829.9 1026.2 1246.9 1494.4 1771.9
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 1472 1481 1531 1620 1689 1729 1739 1676 1629 1598 1585 1573
Grasslands 3209 3348 3554 3828 4074 4274 4427 4373 4348 4351 4411 4471
Energy Biomass 0 4 8 15 38 75 126 201 251 277 336 396
Forest 4173 4214 4137 3942 3685 3503 3396 3591 3717 3772 3636 3500
Others 4310 4118 3934 3759 3678 3584 3476 3323 3220 3166 3195 3224
Total 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 5.99 6.90 8.06 9.40 10.81 12.77 15.24 17.62 20.34 23.41 26.28 29.39
Other CO2 GtC 1.11 1.07 1.06 1.44 1.38 1.18 0.91 0.82 0.48 -0.09 -0.09 -0.09
Total CO2 GtC 7.10 7.97 9.12 10.83 12.19 13.96 16.15 18.44 20.83 23.32 26.19 29.30
CH4 total MtCH4 310 323 348 381 415 452 485 508 540 580 621 663
N2O total MtN2O-N 6.7 7.0 7.9 8.8 9.7 10.8 11.7 12.1 12.7 13.5 14.6 15.6
SOx total MtS 70.9 69.0 81.1 82.7 91.4 100.7 110.6 112.1 108.7 100.2 89.7 79.3
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 785 292 258 291 312 384 457 549 662 753
PFC MtC eq. 32 25 41 51 64 77 92 113 129 148 168 178
SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 50 64 75 89 104 122 129 135 153 165
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
OECD90 - A2 MINICAM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 838 916 980 1030 1053 1116 1151 1197 1253 1319 1405 1493
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 16.3 20.5 24.5 28.3 29.6 34.2 38.4 42.5 47.6 53.8 62.4 71.6
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 10 12 13 13 13 14 16 15 14 15 15 16
Liquids 72 72 70 67 62 53 57 57 61 68 76 83
Gas 27 35 42 47 46 39 32 28 27 28 26 24
Electricity 22 28 35 43 47 59 69 74 83 96 112 128
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 130 147 160 170 167 166 173 174 185 206 229 251
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 40 46 47 43 51 75 94 112 131 152 194 236
Oil 76 76 73 68 56 28 18 10 5 5 4 3
Gas 34 46 62 82 82 76 68 63 62 63 52 40
Nuclear 20 15 13 14 14 16 18 18 19 22 27 32
Biomass 0 2 4 4 5 8 11 14 16 18 22 26
Other Renewables 12 11 10 10 10 12 14 18 24 31 42 53
Total 182 196 209 221 218 216 223 236 259 292 341 390
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.7 2.6 3.4 4.5 5.7 7.1 9.0 10.8
Oil 0.1 0.8 1.6 2.3 2.5 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8
Gas 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.1 3.3 4.0 4.7 5.3 5.9 6.5 7.0
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 30.1 63.8 100.3 137.7 175.7 215.6 257.8 302.3 349.7 402.2 461.8
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 408 414 427 447 452 461 457 440 429 424 419 414
Grasslands 796 819 854 899 916 961 984 979 978 981 989 996
Energy Biomass 0 4 6 8 13 29 41 50 56 60 72 85
Forest 921 930 921 892 875 836 829 877 906 916 894 872
Others 998 955 915 875 866 835 811 777 754 742 749 756
Total 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.42 3.53 3.54 3.71 3.99 4.17 4.51 4.98 5.68 6.44
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.21 0.20 0.16 0.14 0.14 0.07 -0.07 -0.09 -0.11
Total CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.54 3.74 3.74 3.86 4.12 4.31 4.57 4.91 5.60 6.33
CH4 total MtCH4 73 74 81 88 90 99 105 114 123 133 148 163
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.2
SOx total MtS 22.7 17.0 16.2 8.3 7.5 6.6 5.8 5.4 5.4 5.7 6.5 7.3
HFC MtC eq. 19 57 107 103 111 116 125 130 135 142 151 160
PFC MtC eq. 18 13 14 14 14 14 14 13 11 13 15 17
SF6 MtC eq. 23 23 25 28 29 29 28 26 20 12 14 16
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
REF - A2 MINICAM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 428 430 439 455 474 495 519 550 585 623 664 707
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.7 3.7 4.9 6.4 8.3 10.5
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 13 10 8 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9
Liquids 18 12 8 7 7 7 8 9 11 14 16 17
Gas 19 15 12 10 10 9 7 7 7 8 7 7
Electricity 6 8 11 14 16 20 24 32 41 51 62 73
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 56 44 39 39 41 43 48 57 68 81 94 106
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 18 17 17 18 34 53 76 123 169 214 290 367
Oil 20 14 10 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Gas 26 20 18 20 20 19 17 17 19 21 18 16
Nuclear 3 4 5 6 7 8 10 11 12 14 17 19
Biomass 0 1 1 2 3 4 6 9 12 14 17 19
Other Renewables 3 3 3 4 5 6 8 11 16 21 28 34
Total 70 58 55 59 72 91 116 171 227 283 370 457
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.9 3.0 4.5 6.3 9.1 11.8
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Gas 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.1
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 11.0 19.8 28.6 39.0 51.8 67.5 88.5 116.8 151.9 196.1 252.6
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 284 297 317 345 368 382 388 368 353 345 348 350
Grasslands 395 410 444 498 548 585 611 586 573 572 594 615
Energy Biomass 0 0 1 2 7 14 23 39 49 54 64 74
Forest 1007 1016 995 942 879 836 815 871 906 919 879 839
Others 691 655 621 590 576 559 541 514 496 487 493 498
Total 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.81 0.83 1.05 1.34 1.68 2.42 3.15 3.90 5.03 6.31
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.09 0.10 0.08 0.03 0.06 0.03 -0.06 -0.03 0.00
Total CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.84 0.92 1.16 1.42 1.72 2.47 3.18 3.84 5.00 6.31
CH4 total MtCH4 47 39 45 55 65 74 83 99 118 140 171 203
N2O total MtN2O-N 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.7
SOx total MtS 17.0 11.0 10.4 10.0 11.8 13.6 15.4 16.1 16.4 16.2 14.9 13.6
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 8 13 20 27 31 37 41 44 48 52
PFC MtC eq. 7 4 8 10 14 17 20 25 30 35 40 42
SF6 MtC eq. 8 6 7 10 12 15 19 24 28 32 36 38
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
ASIA - A2 MINICAM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 2790 3296 3802 4308 4817 5302 5763 6180 6558 6898 7133 7372
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.4 3.1 5.5 8.7 13.0 18.3 24.6 33.0 43.1 54.8 69.1 85.2
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 20 33 46 60 68 78 88 88 92 99 102 106
Liquids 14 20 26 32 35 42 54 66 80 96 112 128
Gas 2 5 8 11 11 10 10 10 11 12 12 11
Electricity 4 11 22 37 49 67 88 120 159 204 259 314
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 40 70 103 139 163 197 240 284 341 412 485 559
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 26 48 71 96 121 154 192 225 252 273 273 272
Oil 16 22 28 34 28 24 22 16 15 17 14 10
Gas 3 9 18 31 38 43 48 52 58 67 63 58
Nuclear 1 4 8 13 19 27 38 43 50 61 75 89
Biomass 0 2 5 8 12 17 23 33 41 48 57 65
Other Renewables 3 4 5 6 9 15 23 38 57 80 111 142
Total 49 89 135 187 227 280 345 407 474 546 591 637
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.5 1.1 1.9 3.0 4.4 6.1 8.3 10.6 13.2 16.0 18.7
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.7 2.2 2.7 3.4 4.0 4.6
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 17.8 41.9 74.8 115.7 163.8 220.7 286.4 360.5 443.3 532.6 626.3
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 389 403 421 444 461 472 476 462 452 445 439 433
Grasslands 508 523 546 578 605 630 653 659 665 670 673 676
Energy Biomass 0 0 1 4 12 22 33 47 56 60 71 83
Forest 1168 1141 1100 1043 991 944 904 899 896 895 885 876
Others 664 630 599 570 557 542 525 501 484 476 481 486
Total 2729 2697 2668 2640 2626 2610 2592 2568 2553 2545 2550 2554
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.15 1.78 2.60 3.50 4.14 4.96 5.97 6.85 7.77 8.72 9.14 9.57
Other CO2 GtC 0.37 0.26 0.20 0.27 0.28 0.25 0.19 0.13 0.06 0.00 0.01 0.01
Total CO2 GtC 1.53 2.03 2.79 3.77 4.42 5.21 6.16 6.98 7.84 8.72 9.15 9.59
CH4 total MtCH4 113 125 133 143 152 163 176 180 184 186 179 172
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.3 2.6 2.8 3.1 3.4 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.0
SOx total MtS 17.7 25.3 36.8 46.0 51.1 55.8 60.2 59.5 56.1 50.1 43.5 36.9
HFC MtC eq. 0 5 11 18 27 38 54 77 100 130 167 204
PFC MtC eq. 3 5 11 15 20 25 32 42 49 56 64 67
SF6 MtC eq. 4 7 11 16 20 27 34 43 49 55 62 67
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
ALM - A2 MINICAM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 1236 1566 1953 2399 2884 3372 3862 4311 4712 5065 5306 5552
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.9 2.8 4.3 6.2 9.9 14.7 20.7 29.5 39.5 50.9 64.3 79.3
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 2 3 5 7 11 15 19 20 22 23 24 25
Liquids 17 22 27 33 37 48 65 83 104 128 151 174
Gas 5 7 10 13 17 19 18 19 20 23 21 20
Electricity 3 6 10 16 28 45 65 94 128 166 210 254
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 27 38 52 68 93 126 167 216 274 340 406 472
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 4 6 9 13 26 44 67 69 77 91 101 112
Oil 20 23 28 33 35 38 44 43 48 57 54 51
Gas 7 10 15 22 34 42 46 53 62 72 70 68
Nuclear 0 2 4 6 12 19 27 33 41 50 62 74
Biomass 0 1 1 2 4 8 12 22 30 36 44 53
Other Renewables 5 6 8 11 15 20 26 40 56 74 98 123
Total 35 48 66 89 126 171 223 261 313 380 430 480
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.4 2.1 2.8 3.6 4.6 5.6
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.9 2.4 2.8 3.3 3.9 4.4
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.5 2.0 2.6 3.3 4.0 4.7
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 16.4 35.2 56.9 83.3 115.0 153.0 197.1 246.7 302.1 363.5 431.1
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 391 368 365 384 403 414 418 405 394 384 379 375
Grasslands 1510 1596 1710 1853 1989 2097 2179 2149 2132 2128 2156 2184
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 10 28 65 90 104 129 153
Forest 3641 3585 3478 3318 3161 3028 2920 2930 2936 2939 2890 2841
Others 1957 1878 1800 1723 1688 1647 1599 1532 1486 1461 1473 1484
Total 7499 7427 7353 7279 7241 7196 7145 7081 7038 7016 7027 7037
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 0.72 1.01 1.24 1.54 2.08 2.77 3.61 4.18 4.91 5.81 6.42 7.07
Other CO2 GtC 0.73 0.82 0.70 0.87 0.80 0.69 0.54 0.49 0.32 0.04 0.02 0.00
Total CO2 GtC 1.45 1.83 1.94 2.41 2.88 3.46 4.15 4.67 5.24 5.84 6.44 7.07
CH4 total MtCH4 77 85 89 96 108 116 120 114 115 121 123 125
N2O total MtN2O-N 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.3 2.7 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.8 4.2 4.6
SOx total MtS 10.5 12.8 14.7 15.4 18.1 21.7 26.1 28.1 27.8 25.2 21.9 18.5
HFC MtC eq. 0 2 19 32 49 69 98 139 181 233 295 336
PFC MtC eq. 4 4 8 12 16 21 26 34 39 45 50 52
SF6 MtC eq. 3 5 7 10 13 18 23 29 32 37 41 43
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN