IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - A2-A1 MINICAM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 5293 6007 6762 7558 8332 9054 9723 10217 10696 11161 11620 12090
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 20.7 27.4 33.0 37.6 41.8 48.8 58.6 76.4 98.2 123.8 158.1 197.3
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 45 60 70 73 80 90 103 102 106 116 125 135
Liquids 121 128 130 128 116 124 151 198 253 314 381 447
Gas 52 64 73 78 81 91 110 128 155 191 208 225
Electricity 35 55 74 90 103 128 164 237 317 406 523 640
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 253 308 346 369 380 433 528 665 831 1027 1237 1447
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 88 121 136 133 148 167 189 196 213 239 266 294
Oil 131 138 138 133 114 118 145 200 260 327 395 464
Gas 70 87 111 142 149 171 209 263 328 405 444 483
Nuclear 24 27 30 32 37 47 64 95 123 149 214 278
Biomass 0 6 10 13 16 18 22 34 44 51 55 59
Other Renewables 24 24 27 31 36 43 51 70 92 118 151 183
Total 336 403 452 485 499 564 679 857 1061 1289 1525 1761
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.1 1.2 2.5 3.8 5.3 6.9 8.6 10.6 12.6 14.8 17.5 20.1
Oil 0.1 1.5 2.9 4.2 5.4 6.6 7.9 9.8 12.1 14.9 18.7 22.5
Gas 0.1 0.9 1.9 3.1 4.6 6.3 8.1 10.6 13.6 17.1 21.5 25.8
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 75.3 157.1 241.6 326.7 415.4 516.8 634.7 771.7 936.4 1128.7 1345.1
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 1472 1461 1463 1478 1423 1359 1285 1214 1174 1165 1107 1050
Grasslands 3209 3343 3464 3572 3545 3524 3508 3557 3703 3948 4091 4234
Energy Biomass 0 4 8 14 16 17 18 45 65 75 71 67
Forest 4173 4214 4155 3995 4092 4252 4475 4571 4436 4069 3925 3782
Others 4310 4142 4074 4106 4088 4012 3878 3777 3787 3908 3970 4032
Total 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 5.99 6.90 7.62 7.89 8.13 8.89 10.46 12.40 14.83 17.77 20.28 23.00
Other CO2 GtC 1.11 1.07 0.76 0.62 0.37 0.35 0.58 0.13 0.04 0.31 0.10 -0.11
Total CO2 GtC 7.10 7.97 8.39 8.51 8.50 9.24 11.05 12.52 14.87 18.08 20.38 22.89
CH4 total MtCH4 310 323 339 354 363 379 402 428 473 537 582 627
N2O total MtN2O-N 6.7 7.0 7.8 8.6 9.1 9.9 10.6 11.5 13.0 15.1 17.2 19.3
SOx total MtS 70.9 69.0 73.9 65.7 66.6 70.8 78.1 81.4 84.0 86.2 85.4 84.5
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 785 292 258 291 312 384 457 549 662 753
PFC MtC eq. 32 25 41 51 64 77 92 113 129 148 168 178
SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 50 64 75 89 104 122 129 135 153 165
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
OECD90 - A2-A1 MINICAM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 838 874 903 924 926 924 913 895 883 877 882 886
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 16.3 20.5 23.5 25.5 26.1 27.9 29.5 31.4 33.7 36.4 40.1 44.1
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 10 12 13 12 12 12 11 9 8 8 9 9
Liquids 72 73 71 66 61 51 54 57 60 64 69 73
Gas 27 36 43 47 47 48 52 52 55 61 62 64
Electricity 22 28 34 40 42 48 53 57 61 64 72 80
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 130 149 161 166 161 159 170 175 185 198 212 226
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 40 47 46 38 39 42 42 39 37 35 38 40
Oil 76 77 75 68 60 47 49 53 57 61 65 69
Gas 34 46 62 80 80 81 86 87 90 97 98 99
Nuclear 20 16 14 13 13 14 15 16 18 19 24 30
Biomass 0 2 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 7 7
Other Renewables 12 11 10 10 10 10 11 12 14 17 19 22
Total 182 199 210 213 207 198 207 213 223 236 251 267
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.6 2.2 2.6 3.0 3.4 3.7 4.1 4.5
Oil 0.1 0.8 1.6 2.3 2.6 3.4 3.9 4.4 4.9 5.5 6.2 6.8
Gas 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.1 3.3 4.1 5.0 5.9 6.8 7.8 8.8
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 30.1 63.1 96.5 128.8 160.1 191.7 223.7 255.4 288.3 322.6 358.3
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 408 408 408 406 395 365 349 329 317 311 285 259
Grasslands 796 819 838 854 849 840 842 848 873 915 930 944
Energy Biomass 0 4 6 7 8 9 9 15 18 18 16 15
Forest 921 931 924 902 919 976 1020 1048 1029 963 962 961
Others 998 961 946 954 952 933 903 882 886 915 930 945
Total 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.37 3.33 3.23 3.10 3.22 3.21 3.28 3.43 3.58 3.74
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.03 -0.05 -0.05 -0.03 0.03 -0.06 -0.09 -0.05 -0.08 -0.11
Total CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.40 3.27 3.19 3.08 3.25 3.15 3.19 3.37 3.50 3.63
CH4 total MtCH4 73 74 81 85 85 87 92 100 109 120 131 143
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.7 4.2 4.5 4.9
SOx total MtS 22.7 17.0 15.0 9.2 7.8 6.6 5.6 5.0 5.0 5.6 6.3 7.0
HFC MtC eq. 19 57 107 103 111 116 125 130 135 142 151 160
PFC MtC eq. 18 13 14 14 14 14 14 13 11 13 15 17
SF6 MtC eq. 23 23 25 28 29 29 28 26 20 12 14 16
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
REF - A2-A1 MINICAM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 428 446 462 475 480 480 475 470 466 464 470 475
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 2.2 3.0 3.9 5.1 6.4
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 13 11 10 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 6 6
Liquids 18 12 9 8 6 6 6 8 9 11 13 15
Gas 19 16 13 11 10 10 11 12 15 18 19 20
Electricity 6 9 11 13 13 13 14 20 26 32 39 47
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 56 48 43 40 36 35 37 45 55 66 77 88
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 18 19 19 17 18 19 20 18 18 20 22 24
Oil 20 15 11 9 6 5 6 8 11 13 15 17
Gas 26 21 20 21 19 18 18 23 28 33 35 37
Nuclear 3 4 6 6 6 6 6 8 10 11 15 19
Biomass 0 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 4
Other Renewables 3 3 3 4 5 5 6 8 9 11 13 16
Total 70 64 60 58 55 54 57 67 79 92 105 118
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2
Gas 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.7
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 11.0 19.8 28.0 35.5 42.3 49.2 56.2 63.9 73.7 85.2 97.5
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 284 293 301 310 298 281 260 247 244 251 242 232
Grasslands 395 410 430 458 450 441 428 436 473 539 571 604
Energy Biomass 0 0 1 2 2 2 2 6 9 9 7 5
Forest 1007 1016 999 956 978 1018 1075 1093 1054 958 925 891
Others 691 659 646 652 649 636 612 595 598 621 633 644
Total 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.81 0.74 0.67 0.65 0.66 0.75 0.88 1.04 1.16 1.29
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.07 0.03 0.02 0.04 -0.04 -0.03 0.07 0.03 -0.02
Total CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.83 0.81 0.70 0.66 0.70 0.71 0.84 1.11 1.19 1.27
CH4 total MtCH4 47 39 43 49 51 55 61 67 78 94 107 120
N2O total MtN2O-N 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.2
SOx total MtS 17.0 11.0 10.3 8.9 8.8 8.8 8.8 9.3 9.8 10.1 10.3 10.5
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 8 13 20 27 31 37 41 44 48 52
PFC MtC eq. 7 4 8 10 14 17 20 25 30 35 40 42
SF6 MtC eq. 8 6 7 10 12 15 19 24 28 32 36 38
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
ASIA - A2-A1 MINICAM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 2790 3193 3603 4022 4396 4723 5004 5179 5343 5496 5663 5833
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.4 3.1 4.5 5.6 6.9 9.6 13.6 22.0 31.9 43.4 58.1 75.1
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 20 34 43 48 54 63 76 77 80 88 94 99
Liquids 14 21 24 24 24 30 41 62 84 107 132 156
Gas 2 6 7 8 8 10 15 21 29 39 43 47
Electricity 4 12 19 24 28 40 59 100 145 193 250 306
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 40 72 93 104 114 143 191 260 338 426 517 608
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 26 49 63 68 75 87 105 112 124 141 154 168
Oil 16 22 26 26 24 28 39 64 90 115 140 165
Gas 3 10 16 21 24 34 51 79 109 140 154 168
Nuclear 1 4 7 8 11 17 27 45 60 75 105 135
Biomass 0 2 4 6 7 9 11 18 24 29 31 34
Other Renewables 3 4 5 6 8 11 15 25 37 51 67 83
Total 49 92 121 136 148 186 249 344 444 550 652 753
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.4 3.2 4.2 5.3 6.5 7.8 9.3 10.8
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.6 2.1 2.9 3.9 5.3 6.6
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.3 2.1 3.0 4.2 5.7 7.2
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 17.8 40.2 65.7 92.8 122.9 160.1 206.6 263.7 333.5 415.0 506.3
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 389 399 406 411 403 390 373 351 339 336 327 319
Grasslands 508 523 535 545 548 554 562 570 583 601 621 641
Energy Biomass 0 0 1 4 5 6 7 21 32 39 39 38
Forest 1168 1145 1124 1104 1108 1114 1122 1125 1114 1090 1075 1061
Others 664 634 622 628 625 613 592 575 576 597 609 621
Total 2729 2701 2689 2693 2689 2677 2657 2642 2644 2663 2672 2680
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.15 1.78 2.27 2.48 2.66 3.19 4.08 5.10 6.27 7.59 8.59 9.65
Other CO2 GtC 0.37 0.26 0.17 0.18 0.10 0.07 0.09 0.03 0.02 0.08 0.04 0.00
Total CO2 GtC 1.53 2.03 2.44 2.66 2.76 3.27 4.17 5.13 6.29 7.67 8.63 9.64
CH4 total MtCH4 113 125 129 128 131 133 136 139 146 159 168 176
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.3 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.7 3.9 4.3 4.9 5.5 6.1
SOx total MtS 17.7 25.3 31.5 30.8 32.3 36.0 41.9 43.4 43.8 43.1 40.1 37.1
HFC MtC eq. 0 5 11 18 27 38 54 77 100 130 167 204
PFC MtC eq. 3 5 11 15 20 25 32 42 49 56 64 67
SF6 MtC eq. 4 7 11 16 20 27 34 43 49 55 62 67
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
ALM - A2-A1 MINICAM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 1236 1494 1795 2136 2528 2926 3331 3673 4004 4323 4605 4896
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.9 2.8 3.9 5.2 7.0 9.9 13.9 20.8 29.6 40.2 54.8 71.7
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 2 3 4 6 8 9 10 11 12 15 17 20
Liquids 17 22 26 30 30 37 50 72 99 132 168 203
Gas 5 7 9 12 16 23 32 42 56 74 84 94
Electricity 3 6 9 13 19 27 38 60 86 117 162 207
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 27 38 49 60 73 96 130 184 253 337 431 525
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 4 6 8 10 14 18 22 27 34 42 52 61
Oil 20 23 27 30 31 38 51 75 104 138 175 212
Gas 7 10 14 20 27 38 53 75 102 135 157 178
Nuclear 0 2 4 5 7 11 16 25 35 45 69 93
Biomass 0 1 1 2 3 3 4 7 9 11 13 15
Other Renewables 5 6 8 11 14 16 19 25 32 40 51 63
Total 35 48 63 78 95 125 166 233 315 411 517 622
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.6
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.9 2.6 3.5 4.6 6.3 8.0
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.4 2.1 3.0 4.1 5.7 7.2
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 16.4 34.1 51.5 69.6 90.0 115.8 148.2 188.5 240.9 305.8 382.9
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 391 362 348 350 339 323 303 287 275 267 253 239
Grasslands 1510 1592 1660 1716 1703 1690 1676 1702 1775 1892 1969 2045
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 6 9 10 10
Forest 3641 3595 3539 3474 3495 3525 3565 3560 3498 3379 3306 3232
Others 1957 1887 1859 1872 1864 1830 1771 1725 1727 1775 1799 1822
Total 7499 7436 7407 7413 7401 7368 7315 7277 7279 7323 7336 7349
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 0.72 1.01 1.17 1.35 1.57 1.95 2.50 3.33 4.41 5.71 6.96 8.33
Other CO2 GtC 0.73 0.82 0.54 0.42 0.28 0.29 0.43 0.21 0.13 0.21 0.11 0.02
Total CO2 GtC 1.45 1.83 1.71 1.77 1.85 2.24 2.92 3.54 4.54 5.92 7.07 8.35
CH4 total MtCH4 77 85 87 91 96 104 113 123 140 164 176 187
N2O total MtN2O-N 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.7 3.1 3.7 4.5 5.3 6.1
SOx total MtS 10.5 12.8 14.1 13.7 14.7 16.4 18.9 20.6 22.4 24.4 25.7 27.0
HFC MtC eq. 0 2 19 32 49 69 98 139 181 233 295 336
PFC MtC eq. 4 4 8 12 16 21 26 34 39 45 50 52
SF6 MtC eq. 3 5 7 10 13 18 23 29 32 37 41 43
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN