IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - B1 ASF 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 5264 6117 6827 7537 8039 8526 8704 8527 8444 8022 7282 7056
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 20.6 27.6 38.0 53.5 73.8 114.9 134.3 167.2 186.9 252.2 314.9 339.3
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial
Solids 55 66 80 89 76 62 49 42 35 30 28 25
Liquids 121 170 228 304 308 311 314 280 247 221 203 186
Gas 50 58 82 124 149 174 198 185 171 157 143 129
Electricity 42 55 77 104 149 195 241 283 325 343 339 334
Others
Total 269 350 467 621 682 742 802 790 778 752 712 673
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 97 119 149 191 262 332 403 354 305 259 215 172
Oil 139 198 272 354 289 225 160 103 46 14 8 2
Gas 74 83 118 179 231 283 335 303 272 242 213 184
Nuclear 7 10 8 7 9 11 13 11 10 9 8 8
Biomass 0 0 0 14 43 73 102 125 148 167 183 198
Other Renewables 10 14 23 30 46 61 77 135 192 223 226 229
Total 326 424 570 774 879 984 1090 1031 973 914 853 791
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 1.2 2.5 4.2 6.5 9.5 13.2 16.9 20.2 23.0 25.3 27.2
Oil 0.0 1.8 4.2 7.3 10.5 13.0 14.9 16.1 16.8 17.0 17.1 17.2
Gas 0.0 0.9 1.9 3.3 5.4 8.0 11.1 14.3 17.1 19.7 21.9 23.9
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 75.3 169.0 295.1 451.7 624.0 803.6 971.7 1109.4 1219.9 1309.9 1382.6
Carbon Sequestraction GtC -1.8 -2.0 -2.1 -2.3 -2.5 -2.7 -2.9 -3.1 -3.2 -3.3 -3.4 -3.4
Land Use Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 5.99 6.90 9.65 13.22 15.72 16.61 17.50 14.71 11.93 9.68 7.98 6.27
Other CO2 GtC 1.11 1.07 1.12 1.24 1.13 0.98 0.84 0.58 0.32 0.18 0.16 0.14
Total CO2 GtC 7.10 7.97 10.76 14.46 16.85 17.59 18.33 15.29 12.24 9.86 8.13 6.41
CH4 total MtCH4 310 323 373 430 479 513 546 513 481 447 412 377
N2O total MtN2O-N 6.7 7.0 8.1 9.5 10.5 11.0 11.5 11.2 10.8 10.4 9.9 9.3
SOx total MtS 70.9 69.0 83.6 112.3 104.7 76.4 48.1 38.1 28.1 23.4 24.0 24.6
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 784 291 257 298 338 337 333 327 315 299
PFC MtC eq. 32 25 29 32 33 37 42 47 45 43 46 45
SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 36 37 47 58 68 71 62 46 43 43
CO MtCO 879 877 1039 1162 1338 1316 1293 1199 1105 1029 971 913
NMVOC Mt 139 141 162 193 218 228 237 255 272 295 322 349
NOx  MtN 31 32 44 59 70 71 72 62 52 45 40 35
OECD90 - B1 ASF 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 849 919 961 1003 1035 1069 1081 1085 1088 1096 1106 1110
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 15.5 19.2 23.4 27.7 32.4 40.4 43.5 49.7 53.0 64.7 78.7 84.1
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial
Solids 12 13 12 12 12 11 11 9 8 7 7 6
Liquids 68 86 91 88 77 66 55 48 41 37 37 36
Gas 27 29 31 35 36 37 38 35 33 31 31 31
Electricity 24 27 33 37 40 43 46 54 63 69 74 79
Others
Total 131 155 167 172 165 157 150 147 144 144 148 152
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 33 32 34 39 52 66 79 66 52 44 40 36
Oil 77 97 106 102 75 47 20 12 5 1 1 0
Gas 35 38 42 50 54 59 63 57 51 47 45 43
Nuclear 6 8 6 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 3
Biomass 0 0 0 4 10 15 21 24 27 30 34 38
Other Renewables 6 7 10 11 13 15 16 27 38 46 50 55
Total 156 181 198 211 208 205 202 189 176 171 173 175
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.5 2.1 2.8 3.6 4.1 4.6 5.0 5.4
Oil 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 3.9 4.5 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
Gas 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.3 3.0 3.6 4.1 4.6 5.1 5.5
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 30.1 63.7 99.8 137.5 174.8 210.1 241.4 266.9 287.5 305.9 323.2
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.51 3.72 3.82 3.63 3.43 2.84 2.24 1.89 1.78 1.68
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.51 3.72 3.82 3.63 3.43 2.84 2.24 1.89 1.78 1.68
CH4 total MtCH4 73 74 77 81 86 90 93 90 88 85 81 78
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3
SOx total MtS 22.7 17.0 7.6 7.5 7.0 6.3 5.6 5.1 4.6 4.8 5.5 6.3
HFC MtC eq. 19 58 108 103 109 112 116 117 117 119 120 120
PFC MtC eq. 18 13 12 10 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6
SF6 MtC eq. 24 23 16 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8
CO MtCO 179 161 165 154 135 100 66 54 42 35 34 32
NMVOC Mt 42 36 40 43 41 36 32 32 31 33 37 40
NOx  MtN 13 12 13 14 14 13 11 9 7 6 6 5
REF - B1 ASF 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 417 419 425 431 432 425 423 406 398 374 347 339
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.0 0.9 1.3 1.9 2.9 4.6 5.3 6.6 7.4 10.0 12.8 14.0
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial
Solids 18 11 11 9 8 6 5 3 2 1 1 1
Liquids 16 11 12 13 12 11 11 9 8 7 7 7
Gas 16 12 15 18 17 17 16 14 11 9 8 6
Electricity 8 7 9 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8
Others
Total 57 42 47 51 48 44 41 36 32 28 25 21
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 23 13 14 14 14 13 12 9 5 3 2 2
Oil 18 13 14 15 14 13 13 9 6 4 2 1
Gas 26 22 26 30 27 24 21 17 14 11 9 7
Nuclear 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 8 9
Other Renewables 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 5 6 7 6 6
Total 69 50 57 64 59 55 50 43 36 31 28 25
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1
Gas 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 11.0 20.6 31.2 41.5 50.5 57.7 62.9 66.1 67.6 68.0 67.6
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 1.01 1.09 0.98 0.81 0.63 0.42 0.22 0.07 0.00 -0.08
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 1.01 1.09 0.98 0.81 0.63 0.42 0.22 0.07 0.00 -0.08
CH4 total MtCH4 47 39 43 53 67 78 89 77 65 54 46 37
N2O total MtN2O-N 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5
SOx total MtS 17.0 11.0 10.4 9.6 8.0 5.7 3.4 2.5 1.6 1.0 0.7 0.4
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 9 15 20 24 26 27 27 27 27 26
PFC MtC eq. 7 4 6 6 7 8 9 10 9 8 8 8
SF6 MtC eq. 8 6 4 7 7 8 9 9 7 6 4 4
CO MtCO 69 41 41 38 41 38 35 31 28 25 24 23
NMVOC Mt 16 13 16 22 27 26 25 24 22 22 25 27
NOx  MtN 5 3 3 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 0
ASIA - B1 ASF 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 2780 3261 3572 3884 4073 4181 4220 4012 3913 3538 3033 2882
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.6 3.4 6.7 12.5 20.5 37.9 46.6 60.0 68.2 94.3 115.9 124.2
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial
Solids 24 41 55 64 50 36 22 18 15 12 10 8
Liquids 15 36 67 114 124 134 144 130 116 104 93 83
Gas 3 8 19 41 55 70 85 78 71 63 56 48
Electricity 6 13 23 36 68 100 133 149 165 167 155 143
Others
Total 47 97 163 255 298 340 383 375 366 346 314 282
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 36 65 88 116 154 193 232 201 170 141 112 83
Oil 19 45 85 134 110 86 62 38 13 1 0 0
Gas 4 10 27 56 89 121 154 137 120 103 86 69
Nuclear 0 1 1 2 4 6 8 7 6 5 4 4
Biomass 0 0 0 5 18 30 43 54 65 72 76 80
Other Renewables 1 3 6 9 19 29 39 67 95 107 102 98
Total 61 124 207 323 395 466 537 504 470 429 381 333
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.5 1.3 2.3 3.7 5.5 7.6 9.7 11.6 13.1 14.4 15.3
Oil 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.1 3.3 4.3 5.0 5.5 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.5 3.8 5.3 6.6 7.7 8.6 9.4
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 17.8 46.6 95.3 164.8 248.0 340.2 430.3 507.0 571.2 624.6 668.1
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.15 1.78 3.38 5.63 7.54 8.51 9.48 8.21 6.93 5.81 4.83 3.86
Other CO2 GtC 0.37 0.26 0.34 0.39 0.33 0.26 0.19 0.13 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00
Total CO2 GtC 1.53 2.03 3.72 6.02 7.87 8.77 9.67 8.34 7.00 5.84 4.85 3.86
CH4 total MtCH4 113 125 145 163 179 190 202 187 173 158 142 126
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.3 2.6 3.2 4.0 4.6 5.0 5.3 5.1 4.9 4.6 4.3 3.9
SOx total MtS 17.7 25.3 47.3 66.7 58.2 37.6 17.0 12.1 7.2 4.9 5.2 5.4
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 11 20 34 56 93 90 85 79 72 64
PFC MtC eq. 3 5 7 9 11 14 17 20 18 18 18 18
SF6 MtC eq. 4 7 11 17 23 27 30 32 26 19 16 16
CO MtCO 235 270 363 438 537 549 561 521 482 445 411 376
NMVOC Mt 33 37 43 51 58 63 67 72 76 80 84 88
NOx  MtN 7 9 16 25 31 33 35 30 25 20 17 14
ALM - B1 ASF 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 1218 1519 1869 2218 2500 2851 2980 3023 3044 3013 2795 2727
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 2.5 4.0 6.7 11.3 18.0 32.0 38.9 50.9 58.2 83.3 107.4 117.1
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial
Solids 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 11 11 10 10 10
Liquids 22 38 58 89 94 100 105 94 82 73 66 60
Gas 5 9 17 31 40 50 60 58 56 53 49 44
Electricity 4 7 12 20 31 42 54 71 88 98 101 103
Others
Total 33 56 89 144 172 201 229 233 237 234 226 217
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 5 9 14 21 41 61 81 79 77 71 61 51
Oil 25 43 67 102 90 77 65 43 21 8 5 1
Gas 8 13 23 42 60 79 97 92 87 80 72 64
Nuclear 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Biomass 0 0 0 4 15 26 38 45 53 59 65 71
Other Renewables 2 3 5 7 10 14 18 35 53 63 67 71
Total 40 68 108 177 218 259 300 295 291 283 271 259
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.9 2.7 3.5 4.2 4.9 5.4
Oil 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.8 2.7 3.5 4.2 4.8 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.8 2.7 3.7 4.6 5.4 6.2 6.8
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 16.4 38.1 68.9 108.0 150.7 195.6 237.0 269.4 293.6 311.4 323.7
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 0.72 1.01 1.74 2.79 3.37 3.66 3.95 3.24 2.53 1.91 1.36 0.81
Other CO2 GtC 0.73 0.82 0.78 0.85 0.80 0.72 0.65 0.45 0.25 0.15 0.14 0.14
Total CO2 GtC 1.45 1.83 2.52 3.64 4.17 4.38 4.59 3.69 2.78 2.06 1.50 0.95
CH4 total MtCH4 77 85 108 132 147 155 163 159 155 149 142 136
N2O total MtN2O-N 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6
SOx total MtS 10.5 12.8 15.2 25.4 28.5 23.8 19.1 15.4 11.7 9.8 9.6 9.4
HFC MtC eq. 0 2 16 28 42 64 98 102 102 101 96 89
PFC MtC eq. 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 11 11 12 12
SF6 MtC eq. 2 5 5 8 12 17 22 24 21 14 14 14
CO MtCO 396 404 470 532 626 629 631 592 553 523 503 482
NMVOC Mt 48 55 63 77 92 103 113 128 143 159 176 193
NOx  MtN 7 8 11 17 21 22 24 21 19 18 16 15