IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - B2 MARIA 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 5262 6091 6891 7672 8372 8930 9367 9704 9960 10159 10306 10414
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 19.5 27.2 37.0 49.7 64.0 83.1 108.0 130.5 156.3 182.0 206.2 232.9
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial
Solids 48 40 45 55 80 124 174 234 287 328 333 264
Liquids 138 159 180 204 229 261 292 308 301 317 348 375
Gas 56 56 87 119 141 144 132 118 115 96 86 148
Electricity 35 49 60 71 84 95 116 125 141 152 158 159
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 278 305 371 449 535 625 714 784 844 893 925 946
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 90 71 68 72 93 135 182 239 291 331 335 265
Oil 123 140 150 167 172 181 197 189 152 131 141 185
Gas 71 99 147 190 222 248 217 196 188 164 147 202
Nuclear 22 21 28 26 27 44 69 112 180 228 264 233
Biomass 28 32 40 62 97 107 114 132 159 192 212 225
Other Renewables 9 8 7 7 6 6 58 62 61 60 59 58
Total 343 372 441 523 617 721 837 931 1031 1107 1159 1169
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.9 1.6 2.3 3.0 3.9 5.3 7.1 9.5 12.4 15.7 19.1
Oil 0.0 1.2 2.6 4.1 5.8 7.5 9.3 11.3 13.2 14.7 16.0 17.4
Gas 0.0 0.7 1.7 3.2 5.1 7.3 9.8 11.9 13.9 15.8 17.4 18.9
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 75.3 159.4 253.3 358.2 476.9 608.9 750.2 897.7 1048.3 1200.1 1351.8
Carbon Sequestraction GtC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 1451 1451 1457 1743 1937 2049 2079 1999 1868 1701 1578 1500
Grasslands 3395 3395 3392 3114 2944 2904 2904 2904 2904 2904 2904 2904
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 81 219 396 519 597
Forest 4138 4138 4138 4138 4138 4122 4124 4138 4138 4138 4138 4138
Others 4061 4061 4058 4051 4027 3970 3937 3924 3916 3907 3907 3907
Total 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 5.99 6.90 7.75 8.85 10.00 11.66 12.74 13.72 14.19 14.46 14.49 14.42
Other CO2 GtC 1.11 1.07 1.09 1.08 1.05 1.04 0.96 0.83 0.77 0.70 0.71 0.73
Total CO2 GtC 7.10 7.97 8.84 9.93 11.05 12.70 13.70 14.55 14.96 15.16 15.20 15.15
CH4 total MtCH4
N2O total MtN2O-N
SOx total MtS
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 786 299 272 315 346 413 483 548 603 649
PFC MtC eq. 32 25 42 55 70 88 107 120 128 130 127 121
SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 48 55 60 76 79 80 74 63 65 69
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
OECD90 - B2 MARIA 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 859 917 953 982 994 988 976 965 952 941 934 928
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 15.6 20.7 26.1 30.2 33.4 37.1 41.1 43.8 47.9 52.9 57.7 62.7
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial
Solids 12 8 6 4 13 29 50 65 76 83 89 75
Liquids 71 80 74 67 62 58 55 52 51 50 50 50
Gas 28 26 45 61 62 53 37 26 18 13 9 20
Electricity 21 28 32 35 37 38 40 41 43 44 45 46
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 132 142 157 167 174 178 182 184 188 190 194 192
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 38 28 20 15 22 36 56 69 79 85 90 76
Oil 71 80 74 67 62 58 55 52 51 50 50 50
Gas 34 49 79 102 107 100 75 63 55 49 43 51
Nuclear 18 15 12 13 16 20 24 30 38 45 54 65
Biomass 6 4 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1
Other Renewables 5 5 4 4 3 3 15 14 14 14 14 13
Total 171 180 193 202 212 218 225 230 237 244 252 255
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.6 2.2 2.8 3.6 4.5 5.4
Oil 0.0 0.7 1.5 2.3 2.9 3.5 4.1 4.7 5.2 5.7 6.2 6.7
Gas 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.6 3.7 4.7 5.5 6.1 6.6 7.1 7.6
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 30.1 63.0 97.3 132.9 170.2 208.4 247.3 287.4 328.6 370.5 411.5
Carbon Sequestraction GtC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 378 378 378 378 378 378 378 378 378 378 303 243
Grasslands 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 75 134
Forest 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756
Others 794 794 794 794 794 794 794 794 794 794 794 794
Total 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.36 3.42 3.59 3.76 3.81 3.93 4.04 4.09 4.13 3.86
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.05 0.07 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.04 0.06 0.09 0.12
Total CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.38 3.47 3.66 3.80 3.83 3.95 4.07 4.16 4.22 3.98
CH4 total MtCH4
N2O total MtN2O-N
SOx total MtS
HFC MtC eq. 19 57 105 99 102 101 102 101 100 98 98 97
PFC MtC eq. 18 13 14 13 12 11 10 8 7 7 7 7
SF6 MtC eq. 24 23 25 23 17 13 13 11 10 11 10 10
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
REF - B2 MARIA 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 413 415 417 418 416 411 406 396 389 384 381 379
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.6 4.1 6.7 8.1 10.0 11.5 12.9 14.5
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial
Solids 13 9 6 4 9 16 27 45 58 66 72 68
Liquids 17 13 12 11 12 13 14 14 14 14 14 14
Gas 21 24 30 36 40 43 44 31 22 15 11 12
Electricity 7 8 8 9 10 12 15 16 17 17 17 17
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 58 54 56 60 71 84 100 105 110 112 113 111
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 19 13 9 6 10 17 28 45 58 67 72 68
Oil 19 14 12 11 12 13 14 14 14 14 14 14
Gas 27 33 40 47 55 62 65 53 44 37 31 32
Nuclear 3 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 7 8 10 13
Biomass 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other Renewables 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 3
Total 69 64 64 68 81 96 114 120 126 129 130 130
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.5 2.1 2.7 3.4
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5
Gas 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.6 3.3 3.8 4.2 4.6 4.9
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 11.0 20.1 29.1 39.3 52.0 67.7 86.1 106.4 127.9 149.8 171.7
Carbon Sequestraction GtC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 217 217 217 217 217 217 217 174 139 111 89 89
Grasslands 114 114 114 114 114 114 114 114 114 114 114 114
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 43 78 106 128 128
Forest 815 815 815 815 815 815 815 815 815 815 815 815
Others 722 722 722 722 722 722 722 722 722 722 722 722
Total 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.88 0.90 1.14 1.44 1.78 2.04 2.25 2.36 2.40 2.32
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.01 -0.01 -0.03 -0.05 -0.09 -0.13 -0.19 -0.18 -0.16
Total CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.90 0.91 1.13 1.41 1.73 1.95 2.12 2.16 2.22 2.16
CH4 total MtCH4
N2O total MtN2O-N
SOx total MtS
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 9 15 21 25 25 26 26 26 27 27
PFC MtC eq. 7 4 8 10 14 19 25 28 30 30 28 27
SF6 MtC eq. 7 6 5 7 9 12 15 16 15 14 14 14
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
ASIA - B2 MARIA 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 2642 3062 3450 3796 4089 4316 4479 4613 4720 4813 4851 4888
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.2 2.9 6.3 13.0 19.9 28.1 37.8 46.9 57.0 67.2 77.1 87.9
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial
Solids 20 20 31 43 51 68 79 93 102 111 96 67
Liquids 26 39 66 93 109 125 139 148 146 148 162 176
Gas 2 2 4 7 15 15 14 15 23 27 38 64
Electricity 4 8 12 18 24 27 35 37 43 47 49 48
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 52 70 113 160 198 236 266 293 314 333 345 355
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 28 26 36 46 54 70 80 94 102 111 96 67
Oil 14 23 38 57 54 58 69 72 52 43 42 65
Gas 3 5 8 14 21 29 23 22 27 30 40 65
Nuclear 1 5 14 11 9 21 35 49 76 94 105 81
Biomass 13 22 33 53 85 89 85 86 101 110 124 128
Other Renewables 1 1 1 1 1 1 17 20 20 20 20 19
Total 61 82 130 181 222 266 309 343 379 408 426 427
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.9 2.6 3.4 4.3 5.3 6.5 7.4
Oil 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.9 2.4 3.1 3.9 4.4 4.8 5.2
Gas 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.2
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 17.8 41.0 70.6 104.8 143.3 186.8 234.3 283.1 331.7 379.2 426.0
Carbon Sequestraction GtC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 366 366 373 380 380 380 380 380 380 380 361 343
Grasslands 431 431 428 425 426 426 426 426 426 426 426 426
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19 37
Forest 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 365
Others 458 458 455 451 449 449 449 449 449 449 449 449
Total 1621 1621 1621 1621 1621 1621 1621 1621 1621 1621 1621 1621
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.15 1.78 2.36 3.07 3.33 3.94 4.34 4.75 4.66 4.76 4.50 4.61
Other CO2 GtC 0.37 0.26 0.25 0.23 0.22 0.21 0.21 0.19 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.11
Total CO2 GtC 1.53 2.03 2.61 3.31 3.55 4.15 4.55 4.94 4.82 4.90 4.62 4.72
CH4 total MtCH4
N2O total MtN2O-N
SOx total MtS
HFC MtC eq. 0 5 21 40 66 95 130 164 199 233 267 302
PFC MtC eq. 3 5 14 22 30 38 46 51 54 54 53 51
SF6 MtC eq. 4 7 12 18 25 32 36 36 33 27 29 30
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
ALM - B2 MARIA 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 1348 1697 2071 2476 2873 3214 3506 3730 3900 4021 4141 4220
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.7 2.4 3.2 4.9 8.1 13.8 22.4 31.6 41.4 50.4 58.5 67.8
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial
Solids 3 2 2 4 7 11 19 31 51 68 76 54
Liquids 24 27 28 34 47 65 85 94 91 105 122 135
Gas 5 4 7 15 24 32 37 46 52 41 29 51
Electricity 3 6 8 10 14 18 26 31 39 44 47 48
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 35 38 45 63 91 127 167 202 233 258 274 288
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 6 4 3 4 7 12 19 31 51 68 76 54
Oil 18 23 26 32 44 53 60 50 35 25 35 57
Gas 7 12 19 28 40 58 55 58 61 47 33 54
Nuclear 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 27 59 81 95 74
Biomass 8 6 4 7 11 17 28 46 57 82 88 96
Other Renewables 2 2 1 1 1 2 23 25 24 24 23 23
Total 41 46 53 72 103 141 190 238 288 326 350 357
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.4 2.1 2.8
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.9 2.5 3.0 3.4 3.6 4.0
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.6 2.2 2.8 3.4 3.9 4.2
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 16.4 35.3 56.3 81.1 111.3 146.0 182.5 220.8 260.2 300.5 342.7
Carbon Sequestraction GtC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 490 490 490 768 963 1075 1105 1067 972 832 825 825
Grasslands 2095 2095 2095 1820 1648 1609 1609 1609 1609 1609 1609 1609
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 37 141 290 297 297
Forest 2202 2202 2202 2202 2202 2186 2188 2202 2202 2202 2202 2202
Others 2086 2086 2086 2083 2060 2004 1971 1958 1950 1941 1941 1941
Total 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 0.72 1.01 1.16 1.46 1.95 2.52 2.81 2.99 3.24 3.25 3.46 3.63
Other CO2 GtC 0.73 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.77 0.81 0.78 0.72 0.70 0.69 0.67 0.66
Total CO2 GtC 1.45 1.83 1.96 2.24 2.72 3.33 3.60 3.71 3.94 3.94 4.14 4.29
CH4 total MtCH4
N2O total MtN2O-N
SOx total MtS
HFC MtC eq. 0 2 12 20 32 54 84 120 157 190 211 223
PFC MtC eq. 4 4 7 10 14 20 27 33 37 39 39 37
SF6 MtC eq. 3 5 5 7 9 20 16 17 15 11 13 14
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN