IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - B2C MARIA 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 5262 6091 6891 7672 8372 8930 9367 9704 9960 10159 10306 10414
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 19.5 27.2 37.0 49.8 64.1 83.2 108.1 130.5 156.2 181.5 205.4 231.7
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial
Solids 48 48 67 107 161 221 277 322 356 381 394 395
Liquids 138 148 158 187 217 251 248 284 291 325 354 377
Gas 56 61 88 87 75 60 79 58 67 47 33 23
Electricity 35 49 60 71 84 97 114 124 134 143 147 153
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 278 305 373 451 537 629 718 788 847 895 928 949
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 90 79 90 124 175 232 287 331 363 387 399 400
Oil 123 134 141 158 191 197 162 178 163 172 185 206
Gas 71 105 151 170 183 193 198 197 223 223 223 228
Nuclear 22 19 16 13 11 10 8 7 12 10 9 8
Biomass 28 27 34 47 47 76 101 117 136 158 172 173
Other Renewables 9 8 7 7 6 5 58 63 66 66 64 62
Total 343 372 438 519 613 714 815 893 962 1015 1052 1077
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.9 1.7 2.6 3.8 5.6 7.9 10.8 14.1 17.7 21.6 25.6
Oil 0.0 1.2 2.6 4.0 5.6 7.5 9.4 11.1 12.8 14.5 16.2 18.0
Gas 0.0 0.7 1.8 3.3 5.0 6.8 8.7 10.7 12.7 14.9 17.2 19.4
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 75.3 160.8 259.8 377.4 515.4 666.7 828.4 1001.1 1182.7 1371.4 1565.7
Carbon Sequestraction GtC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 1451 1451 1458 1744 1940 2051 2079 2013 1906 1777 1691 1691
Grasslands 3395 3395 3392 3113 2925 2904 2904 2904 2904 2904 2904 2904
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 66 173 302 388 388
Forest 4138 4138 4138 4138 4138 4100 4099 4131 4138 4138 4138 4138
Others 4061 4061 4058 4051 4043 3990 3963 3931 3924 3924 3924 3924
Total 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 5.99 6.90 8.03 9.56 11.73 13.49 14.28 15.73 16.65 17.46 18.04 18.57
Other CO2 GtC 1.11 1.07 1.09 1.11 1.12 1.26 1.23 1.09 1.09 1.11 1.12 1.14
Total CO2 GtC 7.10 7.97 9.12 10.67 12.85 14.76 15.51 16.81 17.74 18.57 19.16 19.71
CH4 total MtCH4
N2O total MtN2O-N
SOx total MtS
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 786 299 272 315 346 413 483 548 603 649
PFC MtC eq. 32 25 42 55 70 88 107 120 128 130 127 121
SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 48 55 60 76 79 80 74 63 65 69
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
OECD90 - B2C MARIA 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 859 917 953 982 994 988 976 965 952 941 934 928
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 15.6 20.7 26.1 30.2 33.4 37.1 41.2 43.8 47.9 52.8 57.5 62.5
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial
Solids 12 8 6 21 44 62 73 81 88 92 96 96
Liquids 71 74 68 63 59 56 53 51 50 50 50 50
Gas 28 32 51 48 34 24 17 12 8 6 4 3
Electricity 21 28 32 35 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 132 142 157 167 175 180 183 185 189 191 194 194
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 38 28 21 33 53 70 81 88 94 98 101 100
Oil 71 74 68 63 59 55 50 47 42 36 27 34
Gas 34 55 85 91 84 78 63 61 58 59 61 63
Nuclear 18 15 12 11 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 5
Biomass 6 4 3 2 1 2 4 5 9 14 23 16
Other Renewables 5 5 4 4 3 3 14 14 17 16 15 15
Total 171 180 193 203 210 216 219 221 225 229 232 233
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.7 2.4 3.2 4.1 5.1 6.0 7.0
Oil 0.0 0.7 1.5 2.1 2.8 3.4 3.9 4.4 4.9 5.3 5.7 5.9
Gas 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.7 2.6 3.5 4.2 4.9 5.5 6.1 6.7 7.3
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 30.1 63.0 98.4 137.2 179.3 222.6 265.8 309.6 353.8 397.8 442.5
Carbon Sequestraction GtC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 378 378 378 378 378 378 378 354 312 251 202 202
Grasslands 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 23 65 127 176 176
Forest 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756
Others 794 794 794 794 794 794 794 794 794 794 794 794
Total 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.35 3.64 3.99 4.25 4.21 4.29 4.32 4.31 4.24 4.39
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.05 0.08 0.11 0.08 0.06 0.09 0.12 0.14 0.17
Total CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.38 3.69 4.07 4.36 4.29 4.36 4.40 4.42 4.39 4.56
CH4 total MtCH4
N2O total MtN2O-N
SOx total MtS
HFC MtC eq. 19 57 105 99 102 101 102 101 100 98 98 97
PFC MtC eq. 18 13 14 13 12 11 10 8 7 7 7 7
SF6 MtC eq. 24 23 25 23 17 13 13 11 10 11 10 10
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
REF - B2C MARIA 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 413 415 417 418 416 411 406 396 389 384 381 379
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.6 4.2 6.8 8.2 10.0 11.5 12.9 14.5
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial
Solids 13 9 7 15 26 43 61 68 75 78 80 81
Liquids 17 13 12 11 12 12 9 7 5 7 9 11
Gas 21 24 29 26 24 17 17 15 15 10 7 5
Electricity 7 8 8 9 10 12 15 16 16 16 16 17
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 58 54 56 60 72 85 101 106 111 113 113 113
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 19 13 10 17 27 44 61 69 75 79 81 81
Oil 19 14 12 11 12 12 9 6 4 7 9 11
Gas 27 33 39 38 40 38 40 40 40 36 33 32
Nuclear 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
Biomass 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0
Other Renewables 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 3
Total 69 64 65 68 81 96 114 119 124 126 126 126
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.9 2.6 3.3 4.1 4.9
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2
Gas 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.8 2.1 2.5 2.9 3.3 3.7 4.0
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 11.0 20.1 29.9 42.1 58.0 78.2 101.4 126.2 152.2 178.9 206.2
Carbon Sequestraction GtC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 217 217 217 217 217 217 217 174 139 111 103 103
Grasslands 114 114 114 114 114 114 114 114 114 114 114 114
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 43 78 106 114 114
Forest 815 815 815 815 815 815 815 815 815 815 815 815
Others 722 722 722 722 722 722 722 722 722 722 722 722
Total 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.89 1.02 1.33 1.74 2.16 2.30 2.44 2.52 2.56 2.58
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.16
Total CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.91 1.05 1.38 1.81 2.24 2.40 2.55 2.65 2.70 2.74
CH4 total MtCH4
N2O total MtN2O-N
SOx total MtS
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 9 15 21 25 25 26 26 26 27 27
PFC MtC eq. 7 4 8 10 14 19 25 28 30 30 28 27
SF6 MtC eq. 7 6 5 7 9 12 15 16 15 14 14 14
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
ASIA - B2C MARIA 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 2642 3062 3450 3796 4089 4316 4479 4613 4720 4813 4851 4888
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.2 2.9 6.3 12.9 19.9 28.1 37.8 46.8 56.9 67.0 76.7 87.3
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial
Solids 20 28 48 61 75 89 98 109 116 123 126 126
Liquids 26 34 54 82 100 119 135 148 158 167 176 183
Gas 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
Electricity 4 8 12 16 23 27 34 36 40 42 44 46
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 52 71 115 161 199 237 267 294 314 333 346 355
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 28 34 52 64 77 91 99 110 116 123 126 126
Oil 14 23 38 55 76 70 58 58 56 56 74 101
Gas 3 5 8 14 21 28 29 35 41 49 54 59
Nuclear 1 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 6 4 3 3
Biomass 13 17 26 42 43 70 91 100 110 116 105 85
Other Renewables 1 1 1 1 1 1 17 20 20 21 20 20
Total 61 82 127 176 219 260 295 324 349 369 383 393
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.8 2.6 3.5 4.4 5.5 6.7 7.9 9.2
Oil 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.1 2.8 3.3 3.9 4.5 5.0 5.8
Gas 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.8 2.3 2.9
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 17.8 42.2 74.3 114.3 160.2 207.5 256.6 308.4 362.9 421.4 485.3
Carbon Sequestraction GtC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 366 366 373 380 380 380 380 380 380 379 350 350
Grasslands 431 431 428 425 426 426 426 426 426 426 426 426
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 30 30
Forest 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 365
Others 458 458 455 451 449 449 449 449 449 449 449 449
Total 1621 1621 1621 1621 1621 1621 1621 1621 1621 1621 1621 1621
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.15 1.78 2.61 3.33 4.21 4.54 4.53 4.90 5.11 5.43 5.94 6.54
Other CO2 GtC 0.37 0.26 0.25 0.23 0.22 0.21 0.19 0.18 0.18 0.17 0.15 0.14
Total CO2 GtC 1.53 2.03 2.85 3.56 4.43 4.75 4.72 5.08 5.29 5.61 6.09 6.69
CH4 total MtCH4
N2O total MtN2O-N
SOx total MtS
HFC MtC eq. 0 5 21 40 66 95 130 164 199 233 267 302
PFC MtC eq. 3 5 14 22 30 38 46 51 54 54 53 51
SF6 MtC eq. 4 7 12 18 25 32 36 36 33 27 29 30
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
ALM - B2C MARIA 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 1348 1697 2071 2476 2873 3214 3506 3730 3900 4021 4141 4220
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.7 2.4 3.2 4.9 8.1 13.9 22.3 31.7 41.4 50.2 58.2 67.3
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial
Solids 3 2 5 10 17 28 46 64 77 87 92 94
Liquids 24 26 25 31 45 63 51 77 77 100 118 133
Gas 5 4 7 12 16 18 45 31 43 30 21 15
Electricity 3 6 8 10 14 18 25 31 36 41 43 46
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 35 38 45 63 91 127 167 203 234 258 275 287
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 6 4 7 11 17 28 46 64 77 87 92 94
Oil 18 23 22 30 44 60 45 68 61 73 74 61
Gas 7 12 19 28 39 50 67 62 84 78 75 74
Nuclear 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Biomass 8 6 4 3 2 4 6 10 17 27 44 72
Other Renewables 2 2 1 1 1 1 24 25 26 26 25 24
Total 41 46 53 73 103 142 188 228 264 291 310 325
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.6 3.5 4.4
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.4 2.0 2.4 3.1 3.7 4.4 5.2
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.6 2.2 2.8 3.7 4.5 5.2
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 16.4 35.4 57.2 83.8 117.8 158.4 204.6 256.9 313.8 373.2 431.7
Carbon Sequestraction GtC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 490 490 490 769 965 1076 1104 1104 1075 1036 1036 1036
Grasslands 2095 2095 2095 1818 1630 1609 1609 1609 1609 1609 1609 1609
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 68 68 68
Forest 2202 2202 2202 2202 2202 2164 2163 2195 2202 2202 2202 2202
Others 2086 2086 2086 2084 2076 2024 1997 1965 1958 1958 1958 1958
Total 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 0.72 1.01 1.18 1.57 2.19 2.96 3.39 4.23 4.78 5.20 5.30 5.07
Other CO2 GtC 0.73 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.77 0.88 0.87 0.75 0.71 0.69 0.68 0.66
Total CO2 GtC 1.45 1.83 1.98 2.36 2.96 3.84 4.26 4.98 5.49 5.90 5.98 5.73
CH4 total MtCH4
N2O total MtN2O-N
SOx total MtS
HFC MtC eq. 0 2 12 20 32 54 84 120 157 190 211 223
PFC MtC eq. 4 4 7 10 14 20 27 33 37 39 39 37
SF6 MtC eq. 3 5 5 7 9 20 16 17 15 11 13 14
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN