REPORTS - SPECIAL REPORTS

Emissions Scenarios


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What future work on emissions scenarios would be useful?
  • Establishment of a program for on-going evaluations and comparisons of long-term emission scenarios, including a regularly updated scenario database;
  • Capacity building, particularly in developing countries, in the area of modeling tools and emissions scenarios; Multiple storyline, multi-model approaches in future scenario analyses;
  • New research activities to assess future developments in key GHG driving forces in greater regional, subregional, and sectoral detail which allow for a clearer link between emissions scenarios and mitigation options;
  • Improved specification and data for, and integration of, the non-CO2 GHG and non-energy sectors, such as land use, land-use change and forestry, in models, as well as model inter-comparison to improve scenarios and analyses;
  • Integration into models emissions of particulate, hydrogen, or nitrate aerosol precursors, and processes, such as feedback of climate change on emissions, that may significantly influence scenario results and analyses;
  • Development of additional gridded emissions for scenarios which would facilitate improved regional assessment;
  • Assessment of strategies that would address multiple national, regional, or global priorities;
  • Development of methods for scientifically sound aggregation of emissions data;
  • More detailed information on assumptions, inputs, and the results of the 40 SRES scenarios should be made available at a web site and on a CD-ROM. Regular maintenance of the SRES web site is needed;
  • Extension of the SRES web site and production of a CD-ROM to provide, if appropriate, time-dependent geographic distributions of driving forces and emissions, and concentrations of GHGs and sulfate aerosols.
  • Development of a classification scheme for classifying scenarios as intervention or non-intervention scenarios.

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