REPORTS - SPECIAL REPORTS

Emissions Scenarios


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Table VI-2: SRES web site access summary by countries and territories, from July 1998 to March 1999.
Accesses Internet domain Country/Territory Accesses Internet domain Country/Territory


36
676
373
26
333
81
715
301
14
10
16
11
1085
203
3
9
204
297
3
262
13
12
7
23
36
20
11
34
35
6
320
1991
20
ar
at
au
ba
be
br
ca
ch
cn
cl
cr
cz
de
dk
ec
ee
es
fi
fj
fr
gb
gr
hr
hk
hu
id
ie
il
in
is
it
jp
kr

Argentina
Austria
Australia
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Belgium
Brazil
Canada
Switzerland
China
Chile
Costa Rica
Czech Republic
Germany
Denmark
Ecuador
Estonia
Spain
Finland
Fiji
France
Great Britain (UK)
Greece
Croatia
Hong Kong
Hungary
Indonesia
Ireland
Israel
India
Iceland
Italy
Japan
Republic of Korea (South)

6
8
3
17
22
3424
803
154
206
94
47
3
155
13
10
49
23
15
4
12
3
1921
74
3
2894
2948
1736
9
78
1723
806
8613
lb
lu
my
mx
lk
nl
no
nz
pl
pt
ru
sa
se
sg
si
za
th
tw
tt
tz
ua
uk
us
uy
com
edu
gov
int
mil
net
org
unresolved
Lebanon
Luxembourg
Malaysia
Mexico
Sri Lanka
Netherlands
Norway
New Zealand
Poland
Portugal
Russian Federation
Saudi Arabia
Sweden
Singapore
Slovenia
South Africa
Thailand
Taiwan, province of China
Trinidad and Tobago
Tanzania
Ukraine
United Kingdom
United States
Uruguay
US Commercial
US Educational
US Government
International
US Military
Network
Non-Profit Organization
IP addresses only



Table VI-3: Standardized GHG emissions for the four preliminary markers of the SRES open process, as posted on the CIESIN web page (sres.ciesin.org). These are not necessarily identical with the final marker scenarios.

Preliminary A1 Marker Scenario - Standardized Global GHG Emissions (Open Process Version, date of submission: 12/ 10/ 98)

Greenhouse Gas Units
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100

CO2 Fossil & Industry

GtC

6.2

6.8

9.7

12.2

14.2

15.2

16.2

15.9

15.6

15.0

14.1

13.2

CO2 Deforestation

GtC

1.1

1.6

1.5

1.6

0.7

0.3

-0.2

-0.3

-0.3

-0.4

-0.5

-0.6

CH4

Mt CH4

322.2

346.8

416.8

483.8

547.2

530.6

514.1

463.6

413.0

370.3

335.5

300.6

N2O

Mt N2O-N

6.3

6.9

7.3

7.7

7.5

7.1

6.8

6.3

5.9

5.5

5.2

4.9

SOx

MtS

72.6

69.0

87.4

100.8

91.4

77.9

64.3

51.2

44.9

30.7

29.1

27.4

NOx

MtN

29.9

32.5

41.0

48.9

52.5

50.9

49.3

47.2

45.1

43.3

41.8

40.3

NMVOC

Mt

137.6

150.8

177.8

207.3

229.2

255.0

285.0

324.4

301.1

263.3

223.2

174.0

CO

Mt CO

892.5

1035.9

1272.6

1530.5

1641.2

1815.4

1989.7

2174.4

2359.2

2455.4

2463.0

2470.7

CFCs

GtC equiv.

1.563

0.614

0.413

0.050

0.014

0.006

0.002

0.001

0.001

0.000

0.000

0.000

HCFCs

GtC equiv.

0.087

0.201

0.226

0.075

0.038

0.035

0.002

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

HFCs

GtC equiv.

0.034

0.120

0.164

0.245

0.380

0.540

0.651

0.684

0.694

0.687

0.671

0.645

PFCs

GtC equiv.

0.057

0.068

0.075

0.109

0.157

0.196

0.217

0.221

0.200

0.155

0.170

0.184

SF6

GtC equiv.

0.038

0.037

0.043

0.048

0.066

0.099

0.119

0.127

0.113

0.075

0.084

0.095


Preliminary A2 Marker Scenario ­ Standardized Global GHG Emissions (Open Process Version, date of submission: 12/14//98)


Greenhouse Gas

Units

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100


CO2 Fossil & Industry

GtC

6.2

6.8

8.4

10.9

13.3

14.7

16.4

18.2

20.2

22.7

25.6

28.8

CO2 Deforestation

GtC

1.1

1.6

1.6

1.7

1.5

1.3

1.2

0.7

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.2

CH4

Mt CH4

322.2

346.8

394.1

448.3

506.2

560.4

621.4

674.0

732.3

790.4

848.2

912.7

N2O

Mt N2O-N

6.3

6.9

7.9

9.4

10.5

11.1

11.8

12.7

13.7

14.6

15.5

16.4

SOx

MtS

72.6

69.0

74.7

99.5

111.9

108.1

105.4

86.3

71.7

64.2

61.9

60.3

NOx

MtN

29.9

32.5

39.6

50.7

60.8

65.8

71.5

75.6

80.1

87.3

97.9

109.7

NMVOC

Mt

137.6

150.8

164.1

188.0

210.3

221.3

234.6

245.8

259.5

282.2

314.7

351.9

CO

Mt CO

892.5

1035.9

1135.5

1233.6

1413.0

1494.3

1586.3

1696.1

1815.8

1985.4

2218.3

2484.3

CFCs

GtC equiv.

1.563

0.614

0.413

0.050

0.014

0.006

0.002

0.001

0.001

0.000

0.000

0.000

HCFCs

GtC equiv.

0.087

0.201

0.226

0.075

0.038

0.035

0.002

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

HFCs

GtC equiv.

0.035

0.116

0.152

0.182

0.228

0.278

0.341

0.427

0.512

0.621

0.753

0.883

PFCs

GtC equiv.

0.057

0.070

0.078

0.094

0.114

0.134

0.158

0.191

0.223

0.259

0.297

0.323

SF6

GtC equiv.

0.038

0.041

0.053

0.067

0.079

0.092

0.110

0.122

0.129

0.135

0.153

0.165


Preliminary B1 Marker Scenario ­ Standardized Global GHG Emissions (Open Process Version, date of submission: 10/7/98)


Greenhouse Gas Units
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100

CO2 Fossil & Industry GtC 6.2 6.8 7.7 8.3 8.4 9.1 9.8 10.4 10.1 8.7 7.5 6.5
CO2 Deforestation GtC 1.1 1.6 0.8 1.3 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4
CH4 Mt CH4 322.2 346.8 366.8 395.8 402.8 423.3 443.8 444.8 445.8 446.8 412.8 378.8
N2O Mt N2O -N 6.3 6.9 7.4 8.1 8.3 8.6 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.6 8.3 8.0
SOx MtS 72.6 69.0 59.8 56.2 53.5 53.3 51.4 51.2 49.2 42.2 33.9 28.6
NOx MtN 29.9 32.5 34.8 39.3 40.7 44.8 48.9 48.9 48.9 48.9 41.2 33.6
NMVOC Mt 137.6 150.8 142.8 150.8 143.8 146.8 149.8 154.8 159.8 164.8 159.3 153.8
CO Mt CO 892.5 1035.9 848.9 984.9 863.9 902.9 941.9 983.9 1025.9 1067.9 1008.9 949.9
CFCs GtC equiv. 1.563 0.614 0.413 0.050 0.014 0.006 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000
HCFCs GtC equiv. 0.087 0.201 0.226 0.075 0.038 0.035 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
HFCs GtC equiv. 0.033 0.113 0.151 0.182 0.232 0.296 0.391 0.390 0.383 0.373 0.357 0.337
PFCs GtC equiv. 0.056 0.066 0.069 0.078 0.086 0.094 0.107 0.108 0.095 0.074 0.075 0.073
SF6 GtC equiv. 0.038 0.036 0.037 0.038 0.048 0.059 0.069 0.071 0.062 0.040 0.043 0.043

Preliminary B2 Marker Scenario ­ Standardized Global GHG Emissions (Open Process Version, date of submission: 11/2/98)


Greenhouse Gas Units
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100

CO2 Fossil & Industry GtC 6.2 6.8 7.9 8.9 10.0 10.8 11.1 11.6 11.8 12.4 13.1 13.7
CO2 Deforestation GtC 1.1 1.6 1.8 1.6 0.3 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2
CH4 Mt CH4 322.2 346.8 388.7 447.5 500.9 528.3 537.9 544.4 541.5 529.4 508.5 508.4
N2O Mt N2O -N 6.3 6.9 7.1 7.1 6.7 6.4 6.0 5.8 5.5 5.4 5.2 5.1
SOx MtS 72.6 69.0 68.2 65.0 59.9 58.8 57.2 53.7 51.9 49.1 48.0 47.3
NOx MtN 29.9 32.5 37.6 43.4 48.4 52.8 53.7 55.4 55.6 58.5 60.1 60.4
NMVOC Mt 137.6 150.8 171.8 191.7 201.5 215.0 216.9 214.2 202.4 191.6 178.1 170.3
CO Mt CO 892.5 1035.9 1138.3 1211.2 1175.1 1268.3 1350.5 1466.3 1624.7 1802.7 1948.3 2066.6
CFCs GtC equiv. 1.563 0.614 0.413 0.050 0.014 0.006 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000
HCFCs GtC equiv. 0.087 0.201 0.226 0.075 0.038 0.035 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
HFCs GtC equiv. 0.033 0.122 0.165 0.212 0.279 0.353 0.441 0.533 0.607 0.645 0.677 0.707
PFCs GtC equiv. 0.057 0.070 0.080 0.101 0.126 0.155 0.186 0.210 0.228 0.235 0.234 0.229
SF6 GtC equiv. 0.038 0.047 0.057 0.071 0.088 0.110 0.128 0.140 0.150 0.156 0.163 0.166


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