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REPORTS - SPECIAL REPORTS

Emissions Scenarios


Other reports in this collection

Table VI-4a: Standardized GHG emissions for the preliminary A1 marker (AIM) as posted on the CIESIN web page (sres.ciesin.org) during the open process. These data are not necessarily identical with the final marker scenarios.
 
Preliminary A1 Marker Scenario ­ WORLD (Open process version, date of submission: 12/10/98)
1990 2020 2050 2100
Population in Million 5262 7493 8704 7056
GNP/GDP in Trillion US$90* 20.9 56.5 181.3 528.5
Final Energy by Fuel in EJ
Non-commercial 49.8 35.6 0 0
     Solids
36 62 74.5 24.6
     Liquids
110.7 196.9 301.8 386.5
     Gas
50.5 134 295.1 431.7
     Electricity
38.3 103.7 330.7 898.1
     Others
     Total
285.3 532.2 1002 1741
Primary Energy by Fuel
     Coal
85 144.5 140.3 41.1
     Oil
125.8 200.5 181 107
     Gas
67.6 186.5 400.3 490.4
     Nuclear
6.5 30.4 122.7 77.9
     Biomass
49.8 62.8 192.8 375.9
     Other Renewables
10.3 23 167.1 986.9
     Total
345 647.8 1204 2079
Cumulative Resource Use in ZJ
     Coal
0.1 3.4 7.9 12.2
     Oil
0.1 5 10.8 17.7
     Gas
0.1 3.5 12.2 36.1
Cumulative CO2 Emissions in GtC 7.1 309.5 768.7 1517
Land Use in Million ha
     Cropland
1437 1553 1325 858
     Grasslands
3290 3750 4065 3551
     Energy Biomass
0 200 793 1208
     Forest
4249 3811 3874 4326
     Others
3966 3628 2885 2999
     Total
12942 12942 12942 12942
Anthropogenic Emissions (not standardized)
     CO2 (as C) in GtC
6 12.1 16 13.1
     Other CO2 (as C) in GtC
1.2 1.9 0.2 -0.2
     Total CO2 (as C) in GtC
7.1 14 16.2 12.9
     CH4 total (as CH4) in Mt CH4
341.7 499.3 529.7 316.2
     N2O total (as N) in Mt N2O-N
6.6 7.7 6.8 4.8
     SOx total (as S) in MtS
69.1 101.8 63.8 24.4
     CO (as CO) in Mt CO
751.7 1328 1787 2268
     VOCs in Mt
     NOx (as N) in MtN
27.6 46.9 47.2 38.3
* at market exchange rate

Preliminary A1 Marker Scenario ­ OECD90 (Open process version, date of submission: 12/10/98)
1990 2020 2050 2100
Population in Million 858.5 1002 1081 1110
GNP/GDP in Trillion US$90* 16.4 31 54.1 121
Final Energy by Fuel in EJ
     Non-commercial
6.1 0 0 0
     Solids
10 8.5 6.1 1.4
     Liquids
64.1 81.8 74.5 66.5
     Gas
24.8 50.4 68.1 78.1
     Electricity
21.8 39.5 69.7 175
     Others
     Total
126.8 180 218 321
Primary Energy by Fuel
     Coal
37.7 32.5 26 6.2
     Oil
70 80.8 50.6 29.3
     Gas
31.4 65.2 88.4 89.4
     Nuclear
5.2 16.5 24.3 15
     Biomass
6.1 4.1 29.1 56.8
     Other Renewables
5.5 10.8 35.3 192
Total
155.9 210 254 389
Cumulative Resource Use in ZJ
     Coal
0 1.2 2 2.7
     Oil
0.1 2.5 4.5 6.3
     Gas
0 1.5 3.9 8.5
Cumulative CO2 Emissions in GtC 2.9 103 207 344
Land Use in Million ha
     Cropland
410 381 300 198
     Grasslands
787 788 815 730
     Energy Biomass
0 15 95 179
     Forest
1056 1105 1243 1370
     Others
886 851 686 663
     Total
3140 3140 3140 3140
Anthropogenic Emissions (not standardized)
     CO2 (as C) in GtC 2.9 3.6 3.5 2.3
     Other CO2 (as C) in GtC
0 0 -0.2 0
     Total CO2 (as C) in GtC
2.9 3.6 3.2 2.3
     CH4 total (as CH4) in Mt CH4
81.1 78.9 61.7 47.5
     N2O total (as N) in Mt N2O-N
2.7 2.8 2.3 1.5
     SOx total (as S) in MtS
22.0 6.1 5.8 4.6
     CO (as CO) in Mt CO
173.5 225 247 261
     VOCs in Mt
     NOx (as N) in MtN
12.9 12.8 7.3 5.9

Preliminary A1 Marker Scenario ­ REF (Open process version, date of submission: 12/10/98)
1990 2020 2050 2100
Population in Million 413 430 423 339
GNP/GDP in Trillion US$90* 1.1 2.9 12.4 34.2
Final Energy by Fuel in EJ
Non-commercial 2 0 0 0
     Solids
9.4 5.5 4 1.2
     Liquids
18.9 8.9 7 6.2
     Gas
19.3 22.9 45.5 49.9
     Electricity
8.1 12.7 27.7 55.4
     Others
     Total
57.7 50 84.2 113
Primary Energy by Fuel
     Coal
18.4 14.1 11 2.7
     Oil
22.2 11.6 6.7 2.2
     Gas
26.3 32.7 55.3 53.5
     Nuclear
1.1 3.9 8.4 4.8
     Biomass
2 1.1 7.6 14.8
     Other Renewables
1.3 1.7 15 60.7
     Total
71.3 65 104 139
Cumulative Resource Use in ZJ
     Coal
0 0.4 0.8 1.1
     Oil
0 0.4 0.7 0.9
     Gas
0 0.8 2.1 4.9
Cumulative CO2 Emissions in GtC 1.2 30.3 62.6 102
Land Use in Million ha
     Cropland
279 299 287 180
     Grasslands
346 454 566 478
     Energy Biomass
0 0 31 49
     Forest
960 970 973 1114
     Others
720 582 447 485
     Total
2305 2305 2305 2305
Anthropogenic Emissions (not standardized)
     CO2 (as C) in GtC
1.2 1 1.1 0.7
     Other CO2 (as C) in GtC
0 0 0 -0.1
     Total CO2 (as C) in GtC
1.2 1 1.1 0.6
     CH4 total (as CH4) in Mt CH4
58.7 79.1 64.5 51.9
     N2O total (as N) in Mt N2O-N
0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4
     SOx total (as S) in MtS
16.5 11.7 2.9 1.6
     CO (as CO) in Mt CO
69.8 51.1 54.5 47.4
     VOCs in Mt
     NOx (as N) in MtN
4 3.1 2.1 1
* at market exchange rate

Preliminary A1 Marker Scenario ­ ASIA (Open process version, date of submission: 12/10/98)
1990 2020 2050 2100
Population in Million 2798.2 3851 4220 2882
GNP/GDP in Trillion US$90* 1.5 12.3 62.7 207
Final Energy by Fuel in EJ
Non-commercial 27.8 14.1 0 0
     Solids
15.4 44 57.3 20.1
     Liquids
10.8 48.3 86.9 112
     Gas
2 17.3 70 160
     Electricity
4.6 27.1 117 363
     Others
     Total
60.6 151 331 655
Primary Energy by Fuel
     Coal
25.8 80.4 77.5 25.1
     Oil
13.1 48.3 40.4 20.9
     Gas
3 26.9 108 184
     Nuclear
0.1 5.7 45.3 31.8
     Biomass
27.8 20.5 45.7 89
     Other Renewables
1.3 4.2 57.6 400
     Total
71.3 186 374 750
Cumulative Resource Use in ZJ
     Coal
0 1.5 4.1 6.6
     Oil
0 0.9 2.3 3.8
     Gas
0 0.3 2.3 10.3
Cumulative CO2 Emissions in GtC 1.5 87.8 253 546
Land Use in Million ha
     Cropland
390 437 367 246
     Grasslands
521 586 621 584
     Energy Biomass
0 44 197 257
     Forest
527 411 405 472
     Others
576 536 424 456
     Total
2014 2014 2014 2014
Anthropogenic Emissions (not standardized)
     CO2 (as C) in GtC
1.1 4 5.6 5.2
     Other CO2 (as C) in GtC
0.3 0.6 0.2 0.1
     Total CO2 (as C) in GtC
1.5 4.6 5.9 5.2
     CH4 total (as CH4) in Mt CH4
126.6 211 249 127
     N2O total (as N) in Mt N2O-N
2.3 2.8 2.7 2
     SOx total (as S) in MtS
19.2 56.2 9.5 6.3
     CO (as CO) in Mt CO
265.5 583 847 979
     VOCs in Mt
     NOx (as N) in MtN
6 16.4 18.6 12.3
* at market exchange rate

Preliminary A1 Marker Scenario ­ ALM (Open process version, date of submission: 12/10/98)
1990 2020 2050 2100
Population in Million 1192.1 2211 2980 2727
GNP/GDP in Trillion US$90* 1.9 10.3 52 166
Final Energy by Fuel in EJ
Non-commercial 13.9 21.5 0 0
     Solids
1.2 4 7.1 1.9
     Liquids
16.9 57.9 133 202
     Gas
4.4 43.4 112 144
     Electricity
3.8 24.4 117 304
     Others
     Total
40.2 151 369 652
Primary Energy by Fuel
     Coal
3.1 17.5 25.8 7.1
     Oil
20.5 59.9 83.4 54.5
     Gas
6.9 61.7 149 164
     Nuclear
0 4.3 44.7 26.3
     Biomass
13.9 37.1 110 215
     Other Renewables
2.1 6.4 59.2 335
     Total
46.5 187 472 802
Cumulative Resource Use in ZJ
     Coal
0 0.3 0.9 1.7
     Oil
0 1.1 3.3 6.7
     Gas
0 0.9 4 12.5
Cumulative CO2 Emissions in GtC 1.6 88.7 246 525
Land Use in Million ha
     Cropland
357 436 371 234
     Grasslands
1636 1921 2062 1759
     Energy Biomass
0 141 470 724
     Forest
1706 1326 1253 1371
     Others
1784 1659 1328 1396
     Total
5483 5483 5483 5483
Anthropogenic Emissions (not standardized)
     CO2 (as C) in GtC
0.8 3.5 5.8 4.9
     Other CO2 (as C) in GtC
0.8 1.3 0.2 -0.2
     Total CO2 (as C) in GtC
1.6 4.8 6 4.8
     CH4 total (as CH4) in Mt CH4
75.3 130 154 90.1
     N2O total (as N) in Mt N2O-N
1 1.5 1.2 0.9
     SOx total (as S) in MtS
11.4 27.7 45.5 11.9
     CO (as CO) in Mt CO
242.9 469 639 981
     VOCs in Mt
     NOx (as N) in MtN
4.6 14.6 19.3 19
* at market exchange rate

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