Foreword
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was jointly established
by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment
Programme (UNEP) to assess the scientific, technical and socio-economic information
relevant for the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change.
Since its inception the IPCC has produced a series of comprehensive Assessment
Reports on the state of understanding of causes of climate change, its potential
impacts and options for response strategies. It prepared also Special Reports,
Technical Papers, methodologies and guidelines. These IPCC publications have
become standard works of reference, widely used by policymakers, scientists
and other experts.
In 1992 the IPCC released emission scenarios to be used for driving global
circulation models to develop climate change scenarios. The so-called IS92 scenarios
were pathbreaking. They were the first global scenarios to provide estimates
for the full suite of greenhouse gases. Much has changed since then in our understanding
of possible future greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. Therefore the
IPCC decided in 1996 to develop a new set of emissions scenarios which will
provide input to the IPCC third assessment report but can be of broader use
than the IS92 scenarios. The new scenarios provide also input for evaluating
climatic and environmental consequences of future greenhouse gas emissions and
for assessing alternative mitigation and adaptation strategies. They include
improved emission baselines and latest information on economic restructuring
throughout the world, examine different rates and trends in technological change
and expand the range of different economic-development pathways, including narrowing
of the income gap between developed and developing countries. To achieve this
a new approach was adopted to take into account a wide range of scientific perspectives,
and interactions between regions and sectors. Through the so-called "open process"
input and feedback from a community of experts much broader than the writing
team were solicited. The results of this work show that different social, economic
and technological developments have a strong impact on emission trends, without
assuming explicit climate policy interventions. The new scenarios provide also
important insights about the interlinkages between environmental quality and
development choices and will certainly be a useful tool for experts and decision
makers.
As usual in the IPCC, success in producing this report has depended first and
foremost on the co-operation of scientists and other experts worldwide. In the
case of this report the active contribution of a broad expert community to the
open process was an important element of the success. These individuals have
devoted enormous time and effort to producing this report and we are extremely
grateful for their commitment to the IPCC process. We would like to highlight
in particular the enthusiasm and tireless efforts of the co-ordinating lead
author for this report Nebojsa Nakicenovic and his team at the International
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Laxenburg/Austria who ensured
the high quality of this report.
Further we would like to express our sincere thanks to:
- Robert T. Watson, the Chairman of the IPCC,
- The Co-chairs of Working Group III Bert Metz and Ogunlade Davidson,
- The members of the writing team,
- The staff of the Working Group III Technical Support Unit, including Rob
Swart, Jiahua Pan, Tom Kram, and Anita Meier,
- N. Sundararaman, the Secretary of the IPCC, Renate Christ Deputy Secretary
of the IPCC and the staff of the IPCC Secretariat Rudie Bourgeois, Chantal
Ettori and Annie Courtin.
G.O.P. Obasi |
K. T�pfer |
Secretary-General
World Meteorological
Organization |
Executive Director United Nations Environment
Programme and Director-General United Nations Office in Nairobi |
|