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The project area of approximately 634,000 ha is located within the
newly expanded western region of the Noel Kempff Mercado National Park.
Prior to the initiation of the NKCAP, much of the forest in the expansion
area had been high-graded over a period of about 15 years. In addition
to logging, this area was also under pressure for conversion to agriculture
(for further details, see Brown et al., 2000). The forests in
the expansion area were divided into six strata for sampling: tall evergreen,
liana, tall inundated, short inundated, mixed liana, and burned forest.
The project design for inventorying and monitoring the carbon pools
in the with-project case is based on the methodology and protocols in
MacDicken (1997a). The carbon inventory of the area was based on data
collected from a network of 625 permanent plots; the number of plots
sampled in a given strata was based on the variance of an initial sample
of plots in each strata and the desired precision level (±10 percent)
with 95-percent confidence. A fixed-area, nested-plot design was used,
and carbon stocks were measured or calculated for each of the following
pools in each plot: all trees with diameter at breast height >5 cm,
understory, fine litter standing stock, standing dead wood, and soil
to 30-cm depth. Root biomass was estimated from root-to-shoot ratios
given in Cairns et al. (1997). The total amount of carbon in
the park expansion area was about 115 million t C, most of which was
in aboveground biomass of trees (60 percent), followed by soil to 30-cm
depth (18 percent), roots (12 percent), and dead wood (7 percent); the
understory and fine litter accounted for about 3 percent of the total.
The 95-percent confidence interval of the total carbon stock was ±4
percent, based on sampling error only; regression and measurement error
were not included.
Averted Logging
The carbon benefits from this activity result from halting the removal
of commercial timber and eliminating damage to the residual stand. Estimates
of changes in major carbon pools from logging and projections of timber
extraction if logging had been allowed to continue over the project
life were assessed to generate the without-project baseline. The main
carbon pools considered in this activity are aboveground tree biomass,
dead biomass, and wood products. Bolivia recently enacted a new forestry
law and developed new regulations for forest harvesting. This information
is used to predict how much forest area in the project area would have
been harvested in a given year for each year over the length of the
project. From data provided by logging concessionaires, and analysis
of concessionaire management plans in areas nearby, the likely quantity
of wood (in cubic meters per hectare) extracted per year is also estimated.
The change in carbon stocks from logging activities is measured in
a nearby proxy forest concession. Permanent plots are established to
measure the amount of dead biomass produced during the felling of a
tree and associated activities, as well as the rate of regrowth after
harvesting. Dead biomass results from the crown and stump of the felled
timber tree and damage to other trees. Total production of dead biomass
carbon per unit of harvested biomass carbon is determined from these
plots.
C benefits from averted logging = Dlive biomass C
+ Ddead biomass C + Dwood product C
where D is the difference in carbon stocks between the with- and the
without-project case. The annual benefits are calculated from a carbon
accounting model that tracks all of the changes in these pools from
a scenario that is based on the annual area logged, log extraction rates,
and logging damage.
Dlive biomass C = (biomass C from logging damage + C in timber extracted)
x growth factor
To estimate the change in live biomass, one could measure the live
biomass in the proxy concession before an area was logged and then again
after it was logged; the difference would give the change in the live
biomass C. One main problem with this approach, however, is that two
large carbon stocks are being subtracted; although the error on each
stock could be small, the error on the difference, expressed as a percentage,
will be much larger. To overcome this problem, the change in live biomass
was measured directly. The change in live biomass between the with-
and without-project cases is a result of the extraction of timber and
damage to residual trees from logging activities (the quantity in parentheses).
The quantity in parentheses, expressed on an area basis, multiplied
by the area logged per year gives the total change in live biomass without
adjustment for logging effects on the growth of the residual stand (the
growth factor). It is not clear if harvesting stimulates or reduces
regrowth in recently logged areas. The logging of large trees and damage
to residual trees may be enough to actually reduce net biomass growth
of the stand per unit area for several years after logging rather than
stimulate it. For projects that prevent or modify logging, this effect
of logging on the growth of the residual trees must be determined. Monitoring
of paired permanent plots in logged and unlogged areas of the proxy
concession is under way to establish the sign and magnitude of the growth
factor over the length of the project.
Ddead biomass C = (dead biomass from logging damage x decomposition
factor)
In projects that are related to preventing or reducing logging, dead
wood cannot be ignored because it is a long-lived pool, and logging
increases the size of this pool. Thus, stopping logging has the effect
of reducing the dead biomass carbon stock, and the dead biomass carbon
in the with-project case is less than in the without-project case. The
change in the dead biomass pool has to be corrected for decomposition,
however. Estimates of the decomposition correction factor are taken
from the literature (Delaney et al., 1998), but field measurements
are under way to improve this factor.
Dwood products C = (timber extracted x proportion converted to long-lived
products)
Stopping logging reduces the long-term wood product pool because the
input of new products is reduced; thus, the change in the wood products
pool is negative. The harvested timber in the Santa Cruz area is from
a small number of speciality tree species; a reduction in their supply
may not be supplied from elsewhere. In the NKCAP, the proportion of
harvested roundwood that goes into long-term wood products was obtained
from literature sources for Brazil (Winjum et al., 1998). The
project assumed that wood waste generated at each stage of the conversion
of timber to products (50 percent was converted to sawdust in the first
milling stage) was oxidized in the year of harvest.
The difference between the with- and the without-project case is that
the with-project case has more carbon in the live biomass pool and less
carbon in the dead biomass and wood product pools than the without-project
case.
Averted Conversion to Agriculture
The carbon benefits from this activity result from the elimination
of carbon loss in forest biomass and soil. The without-project baseline
for this component was established by using projected human demographics
in areas adjacent to the project area. The two factors affecting conversion
of forestlands to agriculture in the area surrounding the NKCAP are
increasing human populations and the resulting demand for farmland.
In constructing the deforestation scenario, it was assumed that migration
into the area will fuel continued demand for agricultural land, as in
other areas nearby the NKCAP.
C benefits from averted forest conversion = Dtotal
biomass C + Dsoil C
Carbon loss from a change in biomass is calculated as the product of
the projected area cleared and the difference between carbon in forest
biomass (the sum of trees, understory, litter, dead wood, and roots)
and agriculture crop biomass. Changes in soil carbon are estimated as
the product of area cleared, weighted average forest soil carbon, and
an average soil oxidation rate for converted tropical forest soils obtained
from Detwiler (1986).
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