5.3.3.2. Methods for Monitoring Leakage (continued)
Table 5-5 presents indicators of leakage for LULUCF
project activities on the basis of whether the project has addressed demands
that drive carbon emissions from the project area (Brown et al., 1997).
The underlying concept is that decreasing output or access to needed resources
will prevent a project from meeting its carbon benefit goals. The extent of
the unmet demand determines the potential magnitude of leakage caused by project
activities. Multi-component projects are missing from the table, but potential
management strategies point to adding activities, particularly to conservation
projects (Chomitz, 2000).
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Table 5-5: Factors contributing to leakage and
potential options.
|
|
| Project Components |
Activity Being Replaced |
Conditions Signaling Leakage |
Leakage Potential |
Management Strategies |
|
| Emission Avoidance |
| Forest preservation |
Conventional timber harvest practices |
Decrease or halt in timber output |
High |
Develop alternative timber sources such as plantations on marginal land;
introduce sustainable harvest in buffer areas; reestimate project's GHG
benefits |
| |
Conversion to agriculture |
Decrease in agricultural output |
High |
Create alternative income source such as sustainable forestry; add agricultural
productivity component |
| Sustainable forestry, reduced-impact logging, natural forest management |
Conventional timber harvest practices |
Decrease in short-term output, but increase over long term |
Moderate |
Reestimate GHG benefits over short term; develop alternative timber sources |
| |
|
Decrease in timber output |
High |
Reestimate GHG benefits |
|
| Carbon Sequestration |
| Agroforestry, improved soil conservation, woodlots, windbreaks |
Current agricultural practices |
Increase in output, but free resources for development on adjacent lands |
Moderate |
Protect adjacent forests; implement sustainable forestry |
| |
Fuelwood gathering |
Common property resource; off-site market demand |
Moderate |
Employ transferable technology |
| Increased agricultural productivity |
Current agricultural practices |
Free resources for development on adjacent lands |
Moderate |
Protect adjacent forests; implement sustainable forestry |
|
The components of the table are as follows:
- Project Components-Activities employed in LULUCF projects to date.
- Activity Being Replaced-These activities typically produce agricultural
goods, fuelwood, and timber. The underlying concept is that decreases in output
or access to needed resources resulting from these activities may result in
leakage.
- Conditions Signaling Leakage-Conditions under which components may become
vulnerable to leakage. A project that reduces access to resources, without
offering alternatives, is likely to result in leakage. If a project expands,
has a neutral impact on output of the resource, or provides a substitute,
it is likely to avoid leakage.
- Leakage Potential-Offers an assessment of a project's potential for leakage
(moderate or high) during the short or long term. Because the index is qualitative,
there is no strict interpretation for these designations. A moderate designation
means that the amount of leakage, as well as its presence or absence, depends
on individual site conditions. A high designation means that, unless
there are mitigation strategies, leakage will occur. Where timber is the primary
resource demanded, leakage may be of short- or long-term duration. For example,
although sustainable forestry projects may reduce timber output in the short
term, in the long term the project sites are more productive than their conventionally
logged ones because fewer young trees are damaged.
- Management Strategies-Suggests potential strategies for avoiding or mitigating
leakage (or in some cases reestimating project impacts) that have been implemented
in ongoing carbon sequestration projects or have been proposed for such projects.
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