10.2.3. Food and Fiber Production
10.2.3.1. Agriculture
Table 10-6 shows major rice, wheat, maize, and soybean
production in the countries of Temperate Asia (except Siberia) for 1990, 1993,
and 1996. The increasing production of wheat, maize, and soybeans in China reflects
better management practices, particularly in the northeast provinces. Rice production
in the whole region seems to have leveled off. The drop in rice production in
1993 reflects the anomalously cool and dry summer of that year (Yoshino, 1997;
see also Annex
A).
| Table 10-6: Major production
of rice, wheat, and maize (million tons) in Temperate Asia for 1990, 1993,
and 1996. |
| |
| |
China
|
Japan
|
Korea, Dem People's Rep
|
Korea, Rep
|
Mongolia
|
| |
| Rice |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1990
|
191.59
|
13.12
|
3.08
|
7.72
|
|
|
1993
|
179.79
|
9.79
|
2.30
|
6.51
|
|
|
1996
|
190.10
|
13.00
|
2.80
|
6.28
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| Wheat |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1990
|
98.23
|
0.95
|
0.12
|
|
0.60
|
|
1993
|
106.39
|
0.64
|
0.12
|
|
0.45
|
|
1996
|
109.01
|
0.55
|
0.10
|
|
0.26
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| Maize |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1990
|
97.21
|
|
2.38
|
0.12
|
|
|
1993
|
103.11
|
|
1.96
|
0.08
|
|
|
1996
|
117.35
|
|
2.00
|
0.07
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| Soybean |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1990
|
11.08
|
0.22
|
0.46
|
0.23
|
|
|
1993
|
15.32
|
0.10
|
0.38
|
0.17
|
|
|
1996
|
13.31
|
0.12
|
0.40
|
0.16
|
|
|
| Source: FAO, 1997. |
Agricultural yields estimated using different GCMs are shown in Table
10-7; the impacts clearly vary widely. Nevertheless, possible large negative
impacts on rice production as a result of climate change would be of concern
in the face of expected population increases. In China, across different scenarios
and different sites, yield changes for several crops by 2050 are projected to
be -78% to +15% for rice, -21% to +55% for wheat, and -19% to +5% for maize.
An increase in productivity may occur if the positive effects of CO2 on crop
growth are considered, but the magnitude of the fertilization effect remains
uncertain.
| Table 10-7: Agricultural yield
impact of selected climate change studies. |
|
| Country/Region |
Yield Impact (%)
|
Direct CO2 Effect
|
Author(s)
|
Reference (4)
|
|
| Rice |
|
|
|
|
|
China
|
-6
|
Yes
|
Tao
|
1
|
|
China
|
-11 to -7
|
Yes
|
Zhang
|
1
|
|
China
|
-78 (1) to -6
|
No
|
Jin et al.
|
1
|
|
China (2)
|
-37 to +15
|
No
|
Jin et al.
|
1
|
|
China
|
-18 to -4
|
Yes
|
Matthews et al.
|
1
|
|
China
|
-21 to 0
|
No
|
Lin
|
2
|
|
Japan
|
+10
|
No
|
Sugihara
|
1
|
|
Japan
|
-11 to +12
|
No
|
Seino
|
1
|
|
Japan
|
-45 to +30
|
Yes
|
Horie
|
1
|
|
Japan
|
-28 to +10
|
Yes
|
Matthews et al.
|
1
|
|
Korea, Rep
|
-37 to +16
|
Yes
|
Yun
|
3
|
|
Korea, Rep
|
-40
|
Yes
|
Oh
|
4
|
|
Taiwan
|
+2 to +28
|
Yes
|
Matthews et al.
|
1
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| Wheat |
|
|
|
|
|
China
|
-8
|
Yes
|
Tao
|
1
|
|
China
|
-21 to +55
|
No
|
Lin
|
2
|
|
Japan
|
-41 to +8
|
Yes
|
Seino
|
1
|
|
Mongolia
|
-67 to -19
|
No
|
Lin
|
2
|
|
Russia (3)
|
-19 to +41
|
Yes
|
Menzhulin and Koval
|
5
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| Maize |
|
|
|
|
|
China
|
-4 to +1
|
Yes
|
Tao
|
1
|
|
China
|
-19 to +5
|
No
|
Lin
|
2
|
|
Japan
|
-31 to +51
|
Yes
|
Seino
|
1
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| Pasture |
|
|
|
|
|
Mongolia
|
-40 to +25
|
No
|
Bolortsetseg et al.
|
5
|
|
|
(1) This large negative percentage is a result of the modeled result
at a single site in southWest China.
(2) For irrigated rice.
(3) Including European Russia.
(4) Sources: (1) IPCC 1996, WG II, Table 13-6; (2) Lin, 1996; (3) Yun,
1990; (4) Oh, 1995; (5) IPCC 1996, WG II, Table 13-8; and (6) Bolortsetseg
and Tuvaansuren, 1996.
|
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