The Regional Impacts of Climate Change


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10.2.3. Food and Fiber Production

10.2.3.1. Agriculture

Table 10-6 shows major rice, wheat, maize, and soybean production in the countries of Temperate Asia (except Siberia) for 1990, 1993, and 1996. The increasing production of wheat, maize, and soybeans in China reflects better management practices, particularly in the northeast provinces. Rice production in the whole region seems to have leveled off. The drop in rice production in 1993 reflects the anomalously cool and dry summer of that year (Yoshino, 1997; see also Annex A).


Table 10-6: Major production of rice, wheat, and maize (million tons) in Temperate Asia for 1990, 1993, and 1996.
 
  China Japan Korea, Dem People's Rep Korea, Rep Mongolia
 
Rice          
1990
191.59
13.12
3.08
7.72
1993
179.79
9.79
2.30
6.51
1996
190.10
13.00
2.80
6.28
 
Wheat
1990
98.23
0.95
0.12
0.60
1993
106.39
0.64
0.12
0.45
1996
109.01
0.55
0.10
0.26
 
Maize
1990
97.21
2.38
0.12
1993
103.11
1.96
0.08
1996
117.35
2.00
0.07
 
Soybean
1990
11.08
0.22
0.46
0.23
1993
15.32
0.10
0.38
0.17
1996
13.31
0.12
0.40
0.16

Source: FAO, 1997.


Agricultural yields estimated using different GCMs are shown in Table 10-7; the impacts clearly vary widely. Nevertheless, possible large negative impacts on rice production as a result of climate change would be of concern in the face of expected population increases. In China, across different scenarios and different sites, yield changes for several crops by 2050 are projected to be -78% to +15% for rice, -21% to +55% for wheat, and -19% to +5% for maize. An increase in productivity may occur if the positive effects of CO2 on crop growth are considered, but the magnitude of the fertilization effect remains uncertain.


Table 10-7: Agricultural yield impact of selected climate change studies.

Country/Region Yield Impact (%) Direct CO2 Effect Author(s) Reference (4)

Rice        
China
-6 Yes Tao 1
China
-11 to -7 Yes Zhang 1
China
-78 (1) to -6 No Jin et al. 1
China (2)
-37 to +15 No Jin et al. 1
China
-18 to -4 Yes Matthews et al. 1
China
-21 to 0 No Lin 2
Japan
+10 No Sugihara 1
Japan
-11 to +12 No Seino 1
Japan
-45 to +30 Yes Horie 1
Japan
-28 to +10 Yes Matthews et al. 1
Korea, Rep
-37 to +16 Yes Yun 3
Korea, Rep
-40 Yes Oh 4
Taiwan
+2 to +28 Yes Matthews et al. 1
 
Wheat
China
-8 Yes Tao 1
China
-21 to +55 No Lin 2
Japan
-41 to +8 Yes Seino 1
Mongolia
-67 to -19 No Lin 2
Russia (3)
-19 to +41 Yes Menzhulin and Koval 5
 
Maize
China
-4 to +1 Yes Tao 1
China
-19 to +5 No Lin 2
Japan
-31 to +51 Yes Seino 1
 
Pasture
Mongolia
-40 to +25 No Bolortsetseg et al. 5

(1) This large negative percentage is a result of the modeled result at a single site in southWest China.
(2) For irrigated rice.
(3) Including European Russia.
(4) Sources: (1) IPCC 1996, WG II, Table 13-6; (2) Lin, 1996; (3) Yun, 1990; (4) Oh, 1995; (5) IPCC 1996, WG II, Table 13-8; and (6) Bolortsetseg and Tuvaansuren, 1996.



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