The Regional Impacts of Climate Change


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Table B-1: Summary of transient coupled AOGCM experiments used in this assessment. The scenario gives the rate of increase of CO2 used; most experiments use 1%/yr, which gives a doubling of CO2 after 70 years (IS92a gives a doubling of equivalent CO2 after 95 years). The ratio of the transient response at the time of doubled CO2 to the equilibrium (long-term) response to doubling CO2 is given if known.
Center Expt Reference Flux Adjusted? Scenario Warming at Doubling � Equilibrium Warming Ratio (%) �
BMRC a Power et al. (1993), Colman et al. (1995) No 1%/yr 1.35 2.1 63
CCC b G. Boer (pers. comm.) Yes 1%/yr - 3.5
COLA c E. Schneider (pers. comm.) No 1%/yr 2.0 -
CSIRO d Gordon and O�Farrell (1997) Yes 1%/yr 2.0 4.3 47
GFDL e Stouffer (pers. comm.) Yes 0.25%/yr 2.6 3.7
  f Stouffer (pers. comm.) Yes 0.50%/yr 2.4 3.7
  g Manabe et al. (1991, 1992) Yes 1%/yr 2.2 3.7
  h Stouffer (pers. comm.) Yes 2%/yr 1.8 3.7
  i Stouffer (pers. comm.) Yes 4%/yr 1.5 3.7
  j Stouffer (pers. comm.) Yes 1%/yr - -
GISS k Russell et al. (1995), Miller and Russell (1995) No 1%/yr 1.4 -
IAP l1 Keming et al. (1994) Yes 1%/yr 2.5 -
MPI m2 Cubasch et al. (1992, 1994b), Hasselmann et al. (1993), Santer et al. (1994) Yes IPCC90A 1.3 2.6 50
  n Cubasch et al. (1992), Hasselmann et al. (1993), Santer et al. (1994) Yes IPCC90D na 2.6
  o Yes IPCC90A 1.5 -
  x3 Hasselmann et al. (1995) Yes IPCC90A na 2.6
  y4 Hasselmann et al. (1995) Yes Aerosols na 2.6
MRI p Tokioka et al. (1995) Yes 1%/yr 1.6 -
NCAR q Washington and Meehl (1989) No 1%/yr* 2.3 4.0 58
  r5 Washington and Meehl (1993, 1996), Meehl and Washington (1996) No 1%/yr 3.8 4.6 83
UKMO s Murphy (1995a,b), Murphy and Mitchell (1995) Yes 1%/yr 1.7 2.7 64
  t6 Johns et al. (1997), Keen (1995) Yes 1%/yr 1.7 2.5 68
  w7 Johns et al. (1997), Tett et al. (1997), Mitchell et al. (1995b), Mitchell and Johns (1997) Yes 1%/yr na 2.5
  z8 Johns et al. (1997), Tett et al. (1997), Mitchell et al. (1995b), Mitchell and Johns (1997) Yes Aerosols na 2.5
na = not available
� Numbers in italics indicate simulations with other than a 1%/yr increase in CO2.
* 1%/yr of current CO2 concentrations.
1 Polar deep ocean quantities constrained.
2 Three additional 50-year runs, each from different initial conditions.
3 CO2 from IPCC scenario 90A after greenhouse gas forcing from 1880 to 1990.
4 As (1) with a representation of aerosol forcing, with increases after 1990 based on IS92a.
5 Equilibrium model excluded sea ice dynamics. Coupled model has warmer than observed tropical sea surface temperatures and a vigorous ice albedo feedback (Washington and Meehl, 1996) contributing to the high sensitivity.
6 Average of three experiments from different initial conditions.
7 CO2 increased by 1%/yr from 1990. Observed greenhouse gas forcing used from 1860 to 1990.
8 As (7) with a representation of aerosol forcing, with increases of aerosol and greenhouse gases after 1990 based on IS92a.

 

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