1.3.3. Socioeconomic and Resource-Use Baseline Data
The vulnerability of ecosystems and socioeconomic sectors will be affected
by their baseline or initial conditions and by the other stresses to which they
may be subjected. For this reason, it is important to examine the vulnerability
of these systems and sectors in the context of existing and projected developments.
To provide a consistent set of socioeconomic and resource-use data, the Technical
Support Unit collated data requested by the authors from, among other sources,
World Resources 1996-97 (WRI/UNEP/UNDP/World Bank, 1996) (see Annex D for a
complete list of sources). These data include information on:
- Population and related indicators (1995 population, current population density,
projected population density for 2025, and urban and coastal populations)
- Economic indicators [gross domestic product (GDP) per capita; annual growth
rate for GDP; and percentage of GDP from agriculture, industry, and services]
- Land cover and use (total land area and amount of land in several categories,
including permanent cropland, permanent pasture, forest and woodland, and
other land)
- Agricultural activities (amount of irrigated land, size of agricultural
labor force, and livestock holdings)
- Water use (water resources per capita and annual water withdrawals for domestic
uses, industry, and agriculture)
- Energy use (total commercial energy consumption and consumption of energy
sources that are sensitive to changes in climate, including traditional fuels
and hydroelectric production)
- Biodiversity (known and endemic mammal, bird, and plant species).
It is important to note that these data are intended simply to provide a consistent
set of assumptions on important social and economic factors that will influence
demands on environmental goods and services (and hence the stresses to which
environmental systems may be subjected), as well as the human and financial
capacity of societies to adapt to potential climate change. They are not intended
to be a definitive source of data on social and economic trends in any particular
country. Projections of socioeconomic conditions such as population, incomes,
land uses, technological change, economic activity by sector, demands for water
and other resources, and other variables are at least as uncertain as regional
projections of climate change; as with regional climate information, they should
be used as scenarios of future conditions, not treated as predictions.
1.3.4. Development of Integrated Socioeconomic and Climate Change Scenarios
It is important for policymakers to be able to put climate change impacts in
the context of other social, economic, and technological conditions, such as:
- Demographic change
- Land-use change
- Land degradation
- Air and water pollution
- Economic and social change, "development" (including technological change),
and poverty.
Thus, each chapter in this report has a section on "integrated assessment,"
which attempts to draw together the interactions among sectors, countries, and
forces of change. Integrated assessment has been tackled at various levels:
- Integrating the chain of effects from changes in atmospheric composition
and climate to changes in biophysical systems to socioeconomic consequences
(the "vertical" dimension)
- Including the interactions among systems, sectors, and activities (the "horizontal"
dimension)
- Considering climate change in the context of other trends and changes in
society (the "time" or "global change" dimension).
Some case study examples have been highlighted in the following chapters, but
integrated assessment is in its infancy, and the development of new integrated
scenarios of socioeconomic changes, emissions of greenhouse gases, and potential
changes in climate was not possible in the time available for preparation of
this report. This type of analysis is a priority for the IPCC, however; it currently
is the focus of two related activities: a special report on emissions scenarios
and a task group on climate scenarios for impact analysis. We expect that the
Third Assessment Report (TAR) will be based on such an integrated set of scenarios.
The gaps and deficiencies revealed in this special report suggest some priority
areas for further work to help policymakers in their difficult task. These needs
include:
- Better baseline data, climate and socioeconomic
- Better scenarios, especially of precipitation, extreme events, sulfate aerosol
effects, and regional-scale changes
- Better understanding of the ecological and physiological effects of increasing
CO2 concentrations, taking account of species competition and migrations,
soil and nutrients, acclimation, partitioning between crop yields, roots,
stems, and leaves
- Dynamic models of climate, biospheric processes, and socioeconomic factors
to take account of the developing, time-varying nature of global change
- Impact assessments across a range of scenarios and assumptions to enable
the assessment of risk-particularly in regions composed primarily of developing
countries, where resources for research and assessment have been inadequate
to date
- More and better integrated assessments across sectors, from climate change
to economic or other costs, across countries and regions, including adaptations
and other socioeconomic changes.
Clearly, impact assessments have not been made across all potentially affected
sectors and regions, so many potential costs and benefits remain to be examined
and, where possible, quantified. Nevertheless, we believe the present report
summarizes a substantial body of work that, if carefully interpreted, may provide
useful guidance to policymakers.
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