11.2 Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Technologies
Sustainable agricultural development is an ongoing priority for all countries.
While the outlook for meeting the growth rates of production required to meet
projected food needs by 2010 to 2030 appears reasonable with wider and more
efficient use of existing technology and technology transfer for rice and maize
or animal production, it seems less hopeful for crops that have a high proportion
of their area in difficult eco-regions, that is, wheat, barley, sorghum, and
millet (Oram and Hojjati, 1995). The challenges to adaptation will be significantly
affected by the manner in which climate change effects are experienced. A slow
change in climate over decades, without a significant change in variation and
weather extremes, will facilitate adaptation by farmers themselves, and may
demand little new technology transfer in itself. If the future effects include
an increase in short-term weather extremes, the ability of farmers to adapt
will be severely challenged, and improved technology transfer, such as more
reliable long-term weather forecasting, will become critical to their ability
to adapt.
It is conceivable that a changed climate will increase agricultural production
in some regions. However, more effective technology transfer to developing countries
and improved prices of grains could encourage farmers to adopt known adaptation
and mitigation technology more widely than the present very low levels or, in
some countries, to expand the area cropped.
The Green Revolution technologies and associated policies have played a major
role in bringing about a rapid increase in crop yields. These technologies involve
the use of high-yielding varieties, fertilisers, irrigation, and plant protection
materials. In spite of yield improvements at a global level, crop yields vary
considerably among regions and countries. For example, wheat yield varied between
1.5 tonnes per hectare in Africa and 4.8 tonnes per hectare in Europe. Similarly,
rice yields also varied between 2.0 tonnes per hectare in Africa and 7.4 tonnes
per hectare in Oceania. These differences indicate that the available technologies
are not equally adapted to all economic, cultural, or environmental conditions.
The large variations in crop yields among different countries and gaps between
farmers' yields and experimental-station yields suggest that a considerable
untapped potential exists to increase crop yields in developing countries and
countries with economies in transition (CEITs). However, the realisation of
this untapped potential depends on the existence of a stable and conducive policy
environment. Technology transfer should be a high priority.
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