12.7 Adaptation
Article 12 of the Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC provides for the CDM to channel
part of funding to assist with the cost of adapting to the adverse effects of
climate change. For tropical countries, deforestation and land use change driven
by socio-economic factors are going to be the dominating factors affecting the
forest area and vegetation status (Solomon et al., 1996). However, the projected
climate change under the 2xCO2 scenario could be at a rate higher than the capacity
of the ecosystems and plant species to adapt. The projected climate change will
be an additional stress on the forests affecting the vegetation status (Ravindranath
et al., 1997). In the event of the projected climate change, increasing forest
resilience and adaptation to climate change will be as much or more important
than implementation of mitigation programmes for some of the tropical countries.
Studies have shown that, in the event of an adverse impact on vegetation due
to climate change, the forest dependent communities will be adversely affected
through loss or change in forest area and diversity, and through forest dieback.
The countries where forest vegetation is likely to be adversely affected by
climate change may have to set up institutions to assess the impacts of projected
climate change in their region and to develop adaptation strategies. A number
of technological and silvicultural adaptation practices have been suggested
in the literature (Solomon et al., 1996; Ravindranath et al, 1997). Practices
that promote biodiversity conservation or reduce current pressures on forests
are also likely to enhance forest resilience under climate stressed situations
(Secrett, 1996). There is likely to be a need for intact natural vegetation
corridors to assist species migration to enhance habitat resilience on a regional/continental
scale. Planning on this scale could be supported by the spread of remote sensing
and geographical information system technologies. There are large uncertainties
in projecting climate change as well as in the responses of vegetation at the
regional level.
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