2.2. Anticipating the Effects of Future Climate Change
Since the SAR, improvements in methods and tools for studying impacts of
future changes in climate have included greater emphasis on the use of process-oriented
models, transient climate change scenarios, refined socioeconomic baselines,
and higher resolution spatial and temporal scales. Country studies and regional
assessments in every continent have tested models and tools in a variety of
contexts. First-order impact models have been linked to global systems models.
Adaptation has been included in many assessments, often for the first time.
Methodological gaps remain concerning scales, data, validation, and integration
of adaptation and the human dimensions of climate change. Procedures for
assessing regional and local vulnerability and long-term adaptation strategies
require high-resolution assessments, methodologies to link scales, and dynamic
modeling that uses corresponding and new data sets. Validation at different
scales often is lacking. Regional integration across sectors is required to
place vulnerability in the context of local and regional development. Methods
and tools to assess vulnerability to extreme events have improved but are constrained
by low confidence in climate change scenarios and the sensitivity of impact
models to major climatic anomalies. Understanding and integrating higher order
economic effects and other human dimensions of global change are required. Adaptation
models and vulnerability indices to prioritize adaptation options are at early
stages of development in many fields. Methods to enable stakeholder participation
in assessments need improvement. [2.3]
2.3. Integrated Assessment
Integrated assessment is an interdisciplinary process that combines, interprets,
and communicates knowledge from diverse scientific disciplines from the natural
and social sciences to investigate and understand causal relationships within
and between complicated systems. Methodological approaches employed in such
assessments include computer-aided modeling, scenario analyses, simulation gaming
and participatory integrated assessment, and qualitative assessments that are
based on existing experience and expertise. Since the SAR, significant progress
has been made in developing and applying such approaches to integrated assessment,
globally and regionally.
However, progress to date, particularly with regard to integrated modeling,
has focused largely on mitigation issues at the global or regional scale and
only secondarily on issues of impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation. Greater
emphasis on the development of methods for assessing vulnerability is required,
especially at national and subnational scales where impacts of climate change
are felt and responses are implemented. Methods designed to include adaptation
and adaptive capacity explicitly in specific applications must be developed.
[2.4]
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