5.1.4. Human Health
Changes in temperature and rainfall will have many negative impacts on human
health. Temperature increases will extend disease vector habitats. Where
sanitary infrastructure is inadequate, droughts and flooding will result in
increased frequency of water-borne diseases. Increased rainfall could lead to
more frequent outbreaks of Rift Valley fever. Poor sanitation in urban locations
and increased temperatures of coastal waters could aggravate cholera epidemics.
[10.2.4.1, 10.2.4.4]
5.1.5. Settlements and Infrastructure
Although the basic infrastructure for development -- transport, housing,
and services -- is inadequate in many instances, it nevertheless represents
substantial investment by governments. An increase in the frequency of damaging
floods, heat waves, dust storms, hurricanes, and other extreme events could
degrade the integrity of such critical infrastructures at rates the economies
may not be able to tolerate, leading to a serious deterioration of social, health,
and economic services delivery systems. This condition will greatly compromise
general human welfare. [10.2.5.3]
Sea-level rise, coastal erosion, saltwater intrusion, and flooding will
have significant impacts for African communities and economies. Most of
Africa's largest cities are along coasts and are highly vulnerable to extreme
events, sea-level rise, and coastal erosion because of inadequate physical planning
and escalating urban drift. Rapid unplanned expansion is likely to predispose
large populations to infectious diseases from climate-related factors such as
flooding. [10.2.5.2]
5.1.6. Desertification
Alteration of spatial and temporal patterns in temperature, rainfall, solar
radiation, and winds from a changing climate will exacerbate desertification.
Desertification is a critical threat to sustainable resource management
in arid, semi-arid, and dry subhumid regions of Africa, undermining food and
water security. [10.2.6]
5.1.7. Adaptive Capacity
Given the diversity of constraints facing many nations, the overall capacity
for Africa to adapt to climate change currently is very low. National action
plans that incorporate long-term changes and pursue "no regrets" strategies
could increase the adaptive capacity of the region. Seasonal forecasting -- for
example, linking SSTs to outbreaks of major diseases -- is a promising adaptive
strategy that will help save lives. Current technologies and approaches, especially
in agriculture and water, are unlikely to be adequate to meet projected demands,
and increased climate variability will be an additional stress. It is unlikely
that African countries on their own will have sufficient resources to respond
effectively.
Climate change also offers some opportunities. The processes of adapting to
global climate change, including technology transfer and carbon sequestration,
offer new development pathways that could take advantage of Africa's resources
and human potential. Regional cooperation in science, resource management, and
development already are increasing, and access to international markets will
diversify economies and increase food security.
This assessment of vulnerability to climate change is marked by uncertainty.
The diversity of African climates, high rainfall variability, and a very sparse
observational network make predictions of future climate change difficult at
the subregional and local level. Underlying exposure and vulnerability to climatic
changes are well established. Sensitivity to climatic variations is established
but incomplete. However, uncertainty over future conditions means that there
is low confidence in projected costs of climate change. This assessment can
create the framework for individual states to begin to construct methodologies
for estimating such costs, based on their individual circumstances.
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