WG I The Scientific Basis - Technical Summary

Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

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D. The Simulation of the Climate System and its Changes The preceding two Sections reported on the climate from the distant past to the present day through the observations of climate variables and the forcing agents that cause climate to change. This Section bridges to the climate of the future by describing the only tool that provides quantitative estimates of future climate changes, namely, numerical models. The basic understanding of the energy balance of the Earth system means that quite simple models can provide a broad quantitative estimate of some globally averaged variables, but more accurate estimates of feedbacks and of regional detail can only come from more elaborate climate models. The complexity of the processes in the climate system prevents the use of extrapolation of past trends or statistical and other purely empirical techniques for projections. Climate models can be used to simulate the climate responses to different input scenarios of future forcing agents (Section F). Similarly, projection of the fate of emitted CO2 (i.e., the relative sequestration into the various reservoirs) and other greenhouse gases requires an understanding of the biogeochemical processes involved and incorporating these into a numerical carbon cycle model.

A climate model is a simplified mathematical representation of the Earth's climate system (see Box 3). The degree to which the model can simulate the responses of the climate system hinges to a very large degree on the level of understanding of the physical, geophysical, chemical and biological processes that govern the climate system. Since the SAR, researchers have made substantial improvements in the simulation of the Earth's climate system with models. First, the current understanding of some of the most important processes that govern the climate system and how well they are represented in present climate models are summarised here. Then, this Section presents an assessment of the overall ability of present models to make useful projections of future climate.

Box 3: Climate Models: How are they built and how are they applied?

Comprehensive climate models are based on physical laws represented by mathematical equations that are solved using a three-dimensional grid over the globe. For climate simulation, the major components of the climate system must be represented in sub-models (atmosphere, ocean, land surface, cryosphere and biosphere), along with the processes that go on within and between them. Most results in this report are derived from the results of models, which include some representation of all these components. Global climate models in which the atmosphere and ocean components have been coupled together are also known as Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). In the atmospheric module, for example, equations are solved that describe the large-scale evolution of momentum, heat and moisture. Similar equations are solved for the ocean. Currently, the resolution of the atmospheric part of a typical model is about 250 km in the horizontal and about 1 km in the vertical above the boundary layer. The resolution of a typical ocean model is about 200 to 400 m in the vertical, with a horizontal resolution of about 125 to 250 km. Equations are typically solved for every half hour of a model integration. Many physical processes, such as those related to clouds or ocean convection, take place on much smaller spatial scales than the model grid and therefore cannot be modelled and resolved explicitly. Their average effects are approximately included in a simple way by taking advantage of physically based relationships with the larger-scale variables. This technique is known as parametrization.

Box 3, Figure 1: The development of climate models over the last 25 years showing how the different components are first developed separately and later coupled into comprehensive climate models.

In order to make quantitative projections of future climate change, it is necessary to use climate models that simulate all the important processes governing the future evolution of the climate. Climate models have developed over the past few decades as computing power has increased. During that time, models of the main components, atmosphere, land, ocean and sea ice have been developed separately and then gradually integrated. This coupling of the various components is a difficult process. Most recently, sulphur cycle components have been incorporated to represent the emissions of sulphur and how they are oxidised to form aerosol particles. Currently in progress, in a few models, is the coupling of the land carbon cycle and the ocean carbon cycle. The atmospheric chemistry component currently is modelled outside the main climate model. The ultimate aim is, of course, to model as much as possible of the whole of the Earth's climate system so that all the components can interact and, thus, the predictions of climate change will continuously take into account the effect of feedbacks among components. The Figure above shows the past, present and possible future evolution of climate models.

Some models offset errors and surface flux imbalances through "flux adjustments", which are empirically determined systematic adjustments at the atmosphere-ocean interface held fixed in time in order to bring the simulated climate closer to the observed state. A strategy has been designed for carrying out climate experiments that removes much of the effects of some model errors on results. What is often done is that first a "control" climate simulation is run with the model. Then, the climate change experiment simulation is run, for example, with increased CO2 in the model atmosphere. Finally, the difference is taken to provide an estimate of the change in climate due to the perturbation. The differencing technique removes most of the effects of any artificial adjustments in the model, as well as systematic errors that are common to both runs. However, a comparison of different model results makes it apparent that the nature of some errors still influences the outcome.

Many aspects of the Earth's climate system are chaotic � its evolution is sensitive to small perturbations in initial conditions. This sensitivity limits predictability of the detailed evolution of weather to about two weeks. However, predictability of climate is not so limited because of the systematic influences on the atmosphere of the more slowly varying components of the climate system. Nevertheless, to be able to make reliable forecasts in the presence of both initial condition and model uncertainty, it is desirable to repeat the prediction many times from different perturbed initial states and using different global models. These ensembles are the basis of probability forecasts of the climate state.

Comprehensive AOGCMs are very complex and take large computer resources to run. To explore different scenarios of emissions of greenhouse gases and the effects of assumptions or approximations in parameters in the model more thoroughly, simpler models are also widely used. The simplifications may include coarser resolution and simplified dynamics and physical processes. Together, simple, intermediate, and comprehensive models form a "hierarchy of climate models", all of which are necessary to explore choices made in parametrizations and assess the robustness of climate changes.

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