4.1.3 Trace Gas Budgets and Trends
The �budget� of a trace gas consists of three quantities: its global
source, global sink and atmospheric burden. The burden is defined as the total
mass of the gas integrated over the atmosphere and related reservoirs, which
usually include just the troposphere and stratosphere. The global burden (in
Tg) and its trend (i.e., the difference between sources and sinks, in Tg/yr)
can be determined from atmospheric measurements and, for the long-lived gases,
are usually the best-known quantities in the budgets. For short-lived, highly
variable gases such as tropospheric O3 and NOx, the atmospheric
burden cannot be measured with great accuracy. The global source strength is
the sum of all sources, including emissions and in situ chemical production.
Likewise, the sink strength (or global loss rate) can have several independent
components.
The source strength (Tg/yr) for most greenhouse gases is comprised of surface
emissions. For synthetic gases where industrial production and emissions are
well documented, the source strengths may be accurately known. For CH4
and N2O, however, there are large, not well-quantified, natural emissions.
Further, the anthropogenic emissions of these gases are primarily associated
with agricultural sources that are difficult to quantify accurately. Considerable
research has gone into identifying and quantifying the emissions from individual
sources for CH4 and N2O, as discussed below. Such uncertainty
in source strength also holds for synthetic gases with undocumented emissions.
The source strength for tropospheric O3 includes both a stratospheric
influx and in situ production and is thus derived primarily from global chemical
models.
The sink strength (Tg/yr) of long-lived greenhouse gases can be derived from
a combination of atmospheric observations, laboratory experiments, and models.
The atmospheric chemistry models are based on physical principles and laboratory
data, and include as constraints the observed chemistry of the atmosphere over
the past two decades. For example, stratospheric loss rates are derived from
models either by combining observed trace gas distributions with theoretically
calculated loss frequencies or from the measured correlation of the respective
gas with a trace gas of known vertical flux. In such analyses there are a wide
range of self-consistency checks. Mean global loss rates based on a priori modelling
(e.g., the CH4-lifetime studies from OxComp described later) can
be compared with empirically-based loss rates that are scaled from a gas with
similar loss processes that has well-known emissions and atmospheric burden
(e.g., the AGAGE (Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment) calibration
of mean tropospheric OH using methyl chloroform (CH3CCl3);
Prinn et al., 1995). Our knowledge of the current budget of a greenhouse gas
provides a key constraint in modelling its future abundance. For example, in
both the IS92a and SRES projected emissions of CH4 and N2O,
we apply a constant offset to each set of emissions so that our calculated burden
is consistent with the observed budget and trend during the 1990s.
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