|  |  | Working Group I: The Scientific Basis | 
|  | |
|  | |
| Other reports in this collection | |
| 5.6 Investigations Needed to Improve Confidence in Estimates of Aerosol Forcing 
  and the Role of Aerosols in Climate Processes  Atmospheric measurements have lagged behind awareness of the importance of 
  aerosols in climate. There is a great challenge in adequately characterising 
  the nature and occurrence of atmospheric aerosols and in including their effects 
  in models to reduce uncertainties in climate prediction. Because aerosols: (i) 
  originate from a variety of sources, (ii) are distributed across a wide spectrum 
  of particle sizes and (iii) have atmospheric lifetimes that are much shorter 
  than those of most greenhouse gases, their concentrations and composition have 
  great spatial and temporal variability. Satellite-based measurements of aerosols 
  are a necessary but not sufficient component of an approach needed to acquire 
  an adequate information base upon which progress in understanding the role of 
  aerosols in climate can be built. Below we outline measurements and process 
  level studies that are necessary to reduce uncertainties in both direct and 
  indirect forcing. These studies and observations are needed both to improve 
  the models on which climate forcing rely and to check our understanding of this 
  forcing as aerosol concentrations change in the future. I. Systematic Ground-Based Measurements  There is a need for countries of the world to develop and support a network 
  of systematic ground-based observations of aerosol properties in the atmosphere 
  that include a variety of physical and chemical measurements ranging from local 
  in situ to remotely sensed total column or vertical profile properties. The 
  Global Atmospheric Watch programme of the World Meterological Organization is 
  but one player in organising routine aerosols measurements on a stage that includes 
  other international organisations (e.g. International Atmoic Energy Agency, 
  IAEA) as well as national research programmes (e.g. national environmental agencies, 
  national atmospheric research agencies).   It is recommended that, at all levels, emphasis be placed in developing a 
  common strategy for aerosol and gas measurements at a selected set of regionally 
  representative sites. One possible model is to develop a set of primary, secondary 
  and tertiary aerosol networks around the world. At the primary stations, a comprehensive 
  suite of aerosol and gas measurements should be taken that are long-term in 
  scope (gaseous precursors are an essential part of the aerosol story since much 
  aerosol mass is formed in the atmosphere from gas-to-particle conversion). At 
  secondary stations, a less comprehensive set of observations would be taken 
  that would provide background information for intensive shorter term process-oriented 
  studies. It would be desirable to co-locate vertical profiling networks that 
  involve complex instrumentation such as lidars with these baseline stations. 
  Tertiary stations may include stations operated by national research programmes 
  that are related to urban aerosol issues and human health.  These measurements should be closely co-ordinated with satellite observations 
  of aerosols. The types of measurements should include in situ size-segregated 
  concentrations of aerosol physical properties such as number and mass but also 
  chemical properties such as composition and optical properties. Total column 
  properties such as aerosol optical depth, Angstrom coefficient, CO and O3 
  add value to these data sets in evaluating the simulation of aerosols as active 
  constitutents in climate models.  II. Systematic Vertical Profile Measurements  There is a paucity of systematic vertical profile measurements of size-segregated 
  or even total atmospheric aerosol physical, chemical and optical properties. 
  For these parameters, no climatological database exists that can be used to 
  evaluate the performance of climate models that include aerosols as active constituents. 
  The COSAM model comparison (Barrie et al., 2001) had to use vertical profile 
  observations from a few intensive aircraft campaigns of only a few months duration 
  to evaluate climate model aerosol predictions. Such measurments would be best 
  co-located with the ground-based network stations. Since they involve routine 
  aircraft surveillance missions and are costly, the development of robust, sensitive 
  lightweight instrument packages for deployment in small aircraft or on commercial 
  airliners is a high priority. Both continuous real time measurements and collection 
  of aerosols for post-flight analysis are needed.   The network design needs to be systematically developed and implemented. One 
  possible model is to conduct observations at pairs of stations around – 
  and downwind of – major aerosol sources types such as industrial (Europe, 
  North America, Asia), soil dust (Sahara or Asian), biomass burning (Amazon or 
  southern Africa) and sea salt (roaring forties of the southern Pacific Ocean 
  region).  III. Characterisation of Aerosol Processes in Selected Regions There is a need for integrated measurements to be undertaken in a number of 
  situations to enhance the capability to quantitatively simulate the processes 
  that influence the size-segregated concentration and composition of aerosols 
  and their gaseous precursors. The situations need to be carefully selected and 
  the observations sufficiently comprehensive that they constrain models of aerosol 
  dynamics and chemistry. The International Global Atmospheric Chemistry (IGAC) 
  programme in its series of Atmospheric Chemistry Experiments in the roaring 
  forties of the southern Pacific (ACE-1), the outflow from North Africa and Europe 
  to the eastern North Atlantic and the 2001 study in Southeast Asia and downwind 
  in the Pacific (ACE-Asia) are examples of attempts to do this that require support 
  and continued adjustment of experimental design to match outstanding questions. 
  Such studies need to be conducted in industrial continental and neighboring 
  marine, upper-tropospheric, Arctic, remote oceanic and dust-dominated air masses. 
  Closure of aerosol transport and transportation models as well as direct forcing 
  closure studies should be an integral part of these studies.  IV. Indirect Forcing Studies There is a need for several carefully designed multi-platform (surface-based 
  boat, aircraft and satellite) closure studies that elucidate the processes that 
  determine cloud microphysical (e.g., size-distributed droplet number concentration 
  and chemical composition, hydrometeor type) and macrophysical properties (e.g. 
  cloud thickness, cloud liquid-water content, precipitation rate, total column 
  cloud, albedo). A second goal would be to understand how aerosols influence 
  the interaction of clouds with solar radiation and precipitation formation. 
  These studies should take place in a variety of regions so that a range of aerosol 
  types as well as cloud types can be explored. Emphasis should be placed on reducing 
  uncertainties related to scaling-up of the processes of aerosol-cloud interactions 
  from individual clouds (about 1 to 10 km) to the typical resolution of a climate 
  model (about 100 to 500 km). Can sub-grid parametrizations of cloud processes 
  accurately represent cloud-radiation interactions and the role that aerosols 
  play in that interaction? Answering this question will require that process 
  studies be performed in conjunction with a range of model types such as models 
  that include a detailed microphysical representation of clouds to models that 
  include the parametrizations in climate models. V. Measurements of Aerosol Characteristics from Space An integrated strategy for reducing uncertainties should include high quality measurements of aerosols from space. At the time of this report, only measurements from AVHRR and POLDER were available. The latter instrument may yield measurements of aerosol optical depth over land, but it was operational for less than a year. High quality satellite measurements together with systematic comparisons with models and the process-level studies noted above should allow us to reduce the uncertainties in current aerosol models. Systematic comparison of models that include an analysis of the indirect effect with satellite measurements of clouds and with data gathered from process-level studies will also reduce uncertainties in indirect effects and in projected climate change. | 

| Other reports in this collection | 
