8.7.6 Pacific-North American (PNA) and Western Pacific (WP) Patterns
The Pacific-North American (PNA) and Western Pacific (WP) patterns are low-frequency
teleconnection patterns (Wallace and Gutzler, 1981). Observations show that
the PNA and WP are sensitive to the frequency distribution of the SST anomalies
associated with ENSO. The HadAM3 model correctly reproduces the changes in frequency
distribution of the PNA pattern between the El Niño years and the La
Niña years (Renshaw et al., 1998). However, this model fails to reproduce
the WP mode distribution. On the other hand, the JMA atmospheric model showed
an ability to simulate the WP with reasonable intensity, responding to SST anomalies
(Kobayashi et al., 2000). How extra-tropical air-sea interactions affect such
weather regimes is not yet clear and an evaluation of the ability of coupled
climate models to simulate these modes is yet to be undertaken.
8.7.7 Blocking
Blocking affects the large-scale flow and storm tracks and thus is important
for mid-latitude climate. D’Andrea et al. (1998) evaluated the statistical
behaviour of fifteen AMIP AGCMs in simulating Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude
blocking. The AMIP models simulate reasonably well the seasonality and geographical
location of blocking, but have a general tendency to underestimate both blocking
frequency and the average duration of blocks. Using the ECMWF model, Brankovic
and Molteni (1997) obtained a more realistic representation of Pacific blocking.
This was due to reduced systematic error of zonal flow over the north-eastern
Pacific. However, model deficiencies still remain in the Atlantic region. A
link between the mean flow error in a model and blocking was also shown by Stratton
(1999). In general, more recent atmospheric models show an improvement in ability
to reproduce atmospheric blocking, but a corresponding evaluation of coupled
climate models has not yet been undertaken.
8.7.8 Summary
Recent atmospheric models show improved performance in simulating many of the
important phenomena, compared with those at the time of the SAR, by using better
physical parametrizations and using higher resolutions both in the horizontal
and in the vertical domain. A systematic evaluation of the ability of coupled
climate models to simulate a full range of the phenomena referred in this section
is yet to be undertaken. However, an intercomparison of El Niño simulations,
one of the most important phenomena, has revealed the ability of coupled climate
models to simulate the El Niño-like SST variability in the tropical Pacific
and its associated changes in precipitation in the tropical monsoon regions,
although the region of maximum SST variability is displaced further westward
than in the observations.
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