Working Group I: The Scientific Basis


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II.1.4: PFCs, SF6 and HFCs emissions (Gg/yr)
CF4 emissions (Gg/yr)
Year A1B A1T A1FI A2 B1 B2 A1p A2p B1p B2p
2000 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7
2010 15.3 15.3 15.3 20.3 14.5 21.0 28.4 28.9 27.0 29.9
2020 21.1 21.1 21.1 25.2 15.7 27.1 41.0 35.2 29.6 37.7
2030 30.1 30.1 30.1 31.4 16.6 34.6 59.4 43.0 31.4 47.4
2040 38.2 38.2 38.2 37.9 18.5 43.6 71.7 50.9 33.1 58.9
2050 43.8 43.8 43.8 45.6 20.9 52.7 77.3 60.0 35.5 70.5
2060 48.1 48.1 48.1 56.0 23.1 59.2 76.7 72.6 36.1 78.5
2070 52.1 52.1 52.1 63.6 22.5 63.1 64.2 84.7 29.6 85.1
2080 56.1 56.1 56.1 73.2 21.3 64.2 40.6 97.9 19.7 86.6
2090 58.9 58.9 58.9 82.8 22.5 62.9 46.8 110.9 20.8 84.7
2100 57.0 57.0 57.0 88.2 22.2 59.9 53.0 117.9 20.5 80.6

C2F6 emissions (Gg/yr)
Year A1B A1T A1FI A2 B1 B2 A1p A2p B1p B2p
2000 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
2010 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.0 1.5 2.1 2.8 2.9 2.7 3.0
2020 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.5 1.6 2.7 4.1 3.5 3.0 3.8
2030 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 1.7 3.5 5.9 4.3 3.1 4.7
2040 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 1.8 4.4 7.2 5.1 3.3 5.9
2050 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.6 2.1 5.3 7.7 6.0 3.6 7.1
2060 4.8 4.8 4.8 5.6 2.3 5.9 7.7 7.3 3.6 7.9
2070 5.2 5.2 5.2 6.4 2.2 6.3 6.4 8.5 3.0 8.5
2080 5.6 5.6 5.6 7.3 2.1 6.4 4.1 9.8 2.0 8.7
2090 5.9 5.9 5.9 8.3 2.2 6.3 4.7 11.1 2.1 8.5
2100 5.7 5.7 5.7 8.8 2.2 6.0 5.3 11.8 2.1 2.1

SF6 emissions (Gg/yr)
Year A1B A1T A1FI A2 B1 B2 A1p A2p B1p B2p
2000 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2
2010 6.7 6.7 6.7 7.6 5.6 7.4 7.2 8.0 6.4 7.7
2020 7.3 7.3 7.3 9.7 5.7 8.4 7.9 10.2 6.5 9.9
2030 10.2 10.2 10.2 11.6 7.2 9.2 10.7 12.0 8.0 12.5
2040 15.2 15.2 15.2 13.7 8.9 11.7 15.8 14.0 9.7 15.8
2050 18.3 18.3 18.3 16.0 10.4 12.1 18.8 16.8 11.2 18.6
2060 19.5 19.5 19.5 18.8 10.9 12.2 20.0 18.7 11.6 20.4
2070 17.3 17.3 17.3 19.8 9.5 11.4 17.8 19.7 10.2 22.0
2080 13.5 13.5 13.5 20.7 7.1 9.6 12.0 20.6 6.8 22.8
2090 13.0 13.0 13.0 23.4 6.5 10.0 13.5 23.3 7.2 23.9
2100 14.5 14.5 14.5 25.2 6.5 10.6 15.0 25.1 7.2 24.4

HFC-23 emissions (Gg/yr)
Year A1B A1T A1FI A2 B1 B2 A1p A2p B1p B2p
2000 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
2010 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
2020 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
2030 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
2040 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
2050 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0
2060 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0
2070 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0
2080 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0
2090 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0
2100 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0

HFC-32 emissions (Gg/yr)
Year A1B A1T A1FI A2 B1 B2 A1p A2p B1p B2p
2000 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2
2010 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3
2020 8 8 8 6 6 6 8 6 6 7
2030 14 14 14 9 8 9 14 9 8 10
2040 19 19 19 11 10 11 19 10 10 12
2050 24 24 24 14 14 14 24 13 14 16
2060 28 28 28 17 17 17 26 16 14 19
2070 29 29 29 20 14 20 27 19 14 21
2080 30 30 30 24 14 22 28 23 14 23
2090 30 30 30 29 14 24 28 28 13 24
2100 30 30 30 33 13 26 28 33 13 25

HFC-125 emissions (Gg/yr)
Year A1B A1T A1FI A2 B1 B2 A1p A2p B1p B2p IS92a
2000 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 7 7 7 0
2010 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 1
2020 27 27 27 21 21 22 26 19 20 22 9
2030 45 45 45 29 29 30 44 27 28 32 46
2040 62 62 62 35 36 38 62 33 35 40 111
2050 80 80 80 46 48 49 78 43 47 52 175
2060 94 94 94 56 48 58 84 53 48 62 185
2070 98 98 98 66 48 67 88 62 47 70 194
2080 100 100 100 79 48 76 91 74 46 75 199
2090 101 101 101 94 46 83 92 89 45 79 199
2100 101 101 101 106 44 89 93 104 43 83 199

HFC-134a emissions (Gg/yr)
Year A1B A1T A1FI A2 B1 B2 A1p A2p B1p B2p IS92a
2000 80 80 80 80 80 80 147 147 147 147 148
2010 176 176 176 166 163 166 220 204 206 216 290
2020 326 326 326 252 249 262 427 315 319 359 396
2030 515 515 515 330 326 352 693 412 422 496 557
2040 725 725 725 405 414 443 997 508 545 638 738
2050 931 931 931 506 547 561 1215 635 734 816 918
2060 1076 1076 1076 633 550 679 1264 800 732 991 969
2070 1078 1078 1078 758 544 799 1272 962 718 1133 1020
2080 1061 1061 1061 915 533 910 1247 1169 698 1202 1047
2090 1029 1029 1029 1107 513 1002 1204 1422 667 1261 1051
2100 980 980 980 1260 486 1079 1142 1671 627 1317 1055

HFC-143a emissions (Gg/yr)
Year A1B A1T A1FI A2 B1 B2 A1p A2p B1p B2p
2000 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 6 6 6
2010 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8
2020 21 21 21 16 15 16 20 15 15 17
2030 34 34 34 22 21 22 34 21 21 24
2040 47 47 47 27 26 27 48 26 26 30
2050 61 61 61 35 35 35 60 33 35 39
2060 70 70 70 43 35 42 64 41 35 47
2070 74 74 74 51 35 49 67 48 35 53
2080 75 75 75 61 35 55 69 58 35 57
2090 76 76 76 73 34 60 70 70 33 60
2100 76 76 76 82 32 65 70 81 32 63

HFC-152a emissions (Gg/yr)
Year A1B A1T A1FI A2 B1 B2 A1p A2p B1p B2p IS92a
2000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2010 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18
2030 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 114
2040 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 281
2050 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 448
2060 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 495
2070 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 542
2080 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 567
2090 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 568
2100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 570

HFC-227ea emissions (Gg/yr)
Year A1B A1T A1FI A2 B1 B2 A1p A2p B1p B2p
2000 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 8 8 8
2010 13 13 13 12 13 14 12 11 11 12
2020 22 22 22 17 18 20 21 16 17 18
2030 34 34 34 21 24 26 33 19 22 25
2040 48 48 48 26 30 33 48 24 28 32
2050 62 62 62 32 39 41 57 29 38 41
2060 72 72 72 40 40 50 60 37 37 49
2070 71 71 71 48 39 59 60 44 37 57
2080 68 68 68 58 38 67 59 53 36 60
2090 65 65 65 70 36 74 56 64 34 63
2100 61 61 61 80 34 80 53 76 32 66

HFC-245ca emissions (Gg/yr)
Year A1B A1T A1FI A2 B1 B2 A1p A2p B1p B2p
2000 0 0 0 0 0 0 38 38 38 38
2010 62 62 62 59 60 61 56 52 53 55
2020 100 100 100 79 80 85 98 73 75 84
2030 158 158 158 98 102 112 159 92 97 114
2040 222 222 222 121 131 144 229 113 128 149
2050 292 292 292 149 173 178 281 140 173 188
2060 350 350 350 190 173 216 298 179 172 229
2070 343 343 343 228 170 255 299 216 168 266
2080 330 330 330 276 166 290 287 262 163 280
2090 312 312 312 334 159 323 271 319 155 291
2100 288 288 288 388 150 353 251 376 145 302

HFC43-10mee emissions (Gg/yr)
Year A1B A1T A1FI A2 B1 B2 A1p A2p B1p B2p
2000 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 5 5 5
2010 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6
2020 9 9 9 8 7 7 8 7 7 7
2030 12 12 12 8 8 8 10 7 7 8
2040 15 15 15 9 9 10 13 8 9 9
2050 18 18 18 11 11 11 15 9 10 11
2060 22 22 22 12 11 12 17 11 10 12
2070 24 24 24 14 11 14 20 12 10 13
2080 27 27 27 16 11 15 22 14 10 14
2090 29 29 29 19 11 17 24 17 10 15
2100 30 30 30 22 10 18 26 19 10 15

Note: Table II.1.4 contains supplementary data to the SRES Report (Naki´cenovi´c et. al., 2000): The data contained in the SRES Report was insufficient to break down the individual contributions to HFCs, PFCs and SF6, these emissions were supplied by Lead Authors of the SRES Report and are also available at the CIESIN (Center for International Earth Science Information Network) Website (http://sres.ciesin.org).
The sample scenario IS92a is only included for HFC-125, HFC-134a, and HFC-152a.
All PFCs, SF6 and HFCs emissions are the same for family A1 (A1B, A1T and A1FI).


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