Figure 10.3: Simulated temperature
changes in °C (mean for 2071 to 2100 minus 1990) conditions of 1%/yr increasing
CO2 without and with sulphate forcing using experiments undertaken
with the AOGCMs of CSIRO Mk2, CCSR/NIES, ECHAM/OPYC, CGCM1 and Hadley Centre (further
experimental details are in Table 9.1). Under both
forcing scenarios a four-member ensemble is included of the Hadley Centre model,
and under the CO2 plus sulphate scenario a three-member ensemble is
included for the CGCM1 model. (a) increased CO2 only (GG), (b) increased
CO2 and sulphate aerosols (GS). Global model warming values in the
CO2 increase-only experiments are 3.07°C for HadCM2 (ensemble average),
3.06°C for CSIRO Mk2, 4.91°C for CGCM1, 3.00°C for CCSR/NIES and 3.02°C
for ECHAM/OPYC. Global model warming values for the experiments including sulphate
forcing are 2.52°C for HadCM2 (ensemble average), 2.72°C for CSIRO Mk2,
3.80°C for CGCM1 (ensemble average) and 2.64°C for CCSR/NIES (from Giorgi
and Francisco, 2000b).
