Figure 11.11: Global average
sea level rise 1990 to 2100 for the IS92a scenario, including the direct effect
of sulphate aerosols. Thermal expansion and land ice changes were calculated from
AOGCM experiments, and contributions from changes in permafrost, the effect of
sediment deposition and the long-term adjustment of the ice sheets to past climate
change were added. For the models that project the largest (CGCM1) and the smallest
(MRI2) sea level change, the shaded region shows the bounds of uncertainty associated
with land ice changes, permafrost changes and sediment deposition. Uncertainties
are not shown for the other models, but can be found in Table
11.14. The outermost limits of the shaded regions indicate our range of uncertainty
in projecting sea level change for the IS92a scenario.
