Figure 12.1: Global mean
surface air temperature anomalies from 1,000-year control simulations with three
different climate models, HadCM2, GFDL R15 and ECHAM3/LSG (labelled HAM3L), compared
to the recent instrumental record (Stouffer et al., 2000). No model control simulation
shows a trend in surface air temperature as large as the observed trend. If internal
variability is correct in these models, the recent warming is likely not due to
variability produced within the climate system alone.
