2.7.4. Relevance and Use of DAFs in Regional Adaptation DecisionsSelected
Examples
Sectoral adaptation decisions must be considered in the broader regional context
in which evolution in related sectors and their responses to changing climatic
conditions represent additional factors to consider in planning a given sector's
own adaptation strategy. This process is likely to involve a broad mix of private
and public stakeholders and their interactions. From the perspectives of regional
planners and policymakers who are responsible for the overall socioeconomic
development of a specific region, the challenge is to create conditions under
which relevant sectoral actors can formulate their own adaptive strategies efficiently
and install public policies that will help adaptation in sectors that provide
public services and manage public resources.
Designing and implementing regional climate change studies that incorporate
full-fledged DAFs to support the development of regional climate adaptation
policies has proven to be an insurmountable challenge to date. This is understandable,
in view of the difficulties involved, and indicates a crucial research area
for the future.
Most statements on regional adaptation policies in the literature stem from
limited but logical extensions of sectoral climate impact assessment studies.
Once possible biophysical changes and their direct or indirect socioeconomic
consequences are established, impact assessors mention a few options that could
mitigate those impacts or moderate their consequences. Seldom are these lists
comprehensive, and they scarcely entail even direct cost estimates, let alone
assessments of indirect costs and ancillary benefits involved in the specified
adaptation options.
The study by Ringius et al. (1996) on climate change vulnerability and
adaptation in Africa is a good example. Focusing on impacts on agriculture and
water, the authors develop a typology of adaptive responses and discuss their
effectiveness from the perspectives of different stakeholders. Although the
study is extremely useful in pointing out that a convenient and crucial starting
point for decisions on adapting to expected climate change in Africa is to reduce
present vulnerability and enhance the capacity to respond to any environmental
and economic perturbations (not just climate and weather), no attempt has been
made to evaluate the costs and benefits of different options or to rank them
in terms of their effectiveness.
An early policy-oriented impact assessment study adopted the PE approach to
synthesize results of sectoral studies in a DAF in selected countries in southeast
Asia (Toth, 1992a,b). The project included data collection, modeling, completion
of first-order impact assessments, analysis of socioeconomic impacts on the
impact assessment side, development of background scenarios, and pre-interviews
with "policy" participants as preparations for PE workshops. The results
of these workshops indicate that the PE approach might be a useful tool in structuring
the numerous uncertain facets that are related to developing robust regional
adaptation policies.
A partially integrated regional cost-benefit assessment has been prepared for
the entire coastal area of Poland (Zeidler, 1997). Scenarios of sea-level rise
have been combined with different assumptions about socioeconomic development
in the potentially affected coastal region to explore mainly direct and relatively
easy-to-estimate costs and benefits of three specifically defined adaptation
strategies: retreat (no adaptation), limited protection, and full protection.
Because of its numerous merits and despite its limitations, this study has demonstrated
the feasibility of using CBA to formulate climate change adaptation problems
in a simple DAF and the potential usefulness of its results to policymakers.
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