References
Adger, W.N., 1999: Social vulnerability to climate change and extremes
in coastal Vietnam. World Development, 27(2), 249-269.
Albritton, D. and L. Kuijpers (eds.), 1999: Synthesis of the Reports
of the Scientific, Environmental Effects, and Technology and Economic Assessment
Panels of the Montreal Protocol. A Decade of Assessments for Decision Makers
Regarding the Protection of the Ozone Layer: 1988-1999. United Nations
Environment Programme, Ozone Secretariat, Nairobi, Kenya, 161 pp.
Alcamo, J. and E. Kreileman, 1996: Emission scenarios and global climate
protection. Global Environmental Change, 6, 305-334.
Alcamo, J., R.W. Shaw, and L. Hordijk, (eds.), 1990: The RAINS Model
of Acidification. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands,
402 pp.
Alcamo, J., G.J. van den Born, A.F. Bouwman, B.J. de Haan, K. Klein Goldewijk,
O. Klepper, J. Krabec, R. Leemans, J.G.J. Olivier, A.M.C. Toet, H.J.M. de Vries,
and H.J. van der Woerd, 1994: Modeling the global society-biosphere-climate
system: part 2: computed scenarios. Water, Air, and Soil Pollution, 76,
37-78.
Alcamo, J., A. Bouwman, J. Edmonds, A. Grübler, T. Morita, and A.
Sugandhy, 1995: An evaluation of the IPCC IS92 emission scenarios. In: Climate
Change 1994: Radiative Forcing of Climate Change and an Evaluation of the IPCC
IS92 Emissions Scenarios [Houghton, J.T., L.G. Meira Filho, J. Bruce, H.
Lee, B.A. Callander, E. Haites, N. Harris, and K. Maskell (eds.)]. Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 247-304.
Alcamo, J., G.J.J. Kreileman, J.C. Bollen, G.J. van den Born, R. Gerlagh,
M.S. Krol, A.M.C. Toet, and H.J.M. de Vries, 1996: Baseline scenarios of global
environmental change. Global Environmental Change, 6, 261-303.
Alcamo, J., E. Kreileman, M. Krol, R. Leemans, J.C. Bollen, M. Schaeffer,
J. van Minnen, A.M.C. Toet, and H.J.M. de Vries, 1998a: Global modelling of
environmental change: an overview of IMAGE 2.1. In: Global Change Scenarios
of the 21st Century. Results from the IMAGE 2.1 Model [Alcamo, J., R. Leemans,
and E. Kreileman (eds.)]. Pergamon, London, UK, pp. 3-94.
Alcamo, J., R. Leemans, and E. Kreileman (eds.), 1998b: Global Change
Scenarios of the 21st Century. Results from the IMAGE 2.1 Model. Pergamon,
London, United Kingdom, 296 pp.
Alcamo, J., T. Henrichs, and T. Rösch, 2000: World Water in 2025--Global
Modeling and Scenario Analysis for the World Commission on Water for the 21st
Century. Report A0002, Center for Environmental Systems Research, University
of Kassel, Germany, 48 pp.
Alexandratos, N. (ed.), 1995: Agriculture: Towards 2010: An FAO Study.
John Wiley and Sons, Chichester, United Kingdom, 488 pp.
Alexandrov, E.L., Yu.A. Izrael, I.L. Karol, and A.H. Khrgian, 1992: The
Ozone Shield of the Earth and Its Changes. St. Petersburg, Gidrometeoizdat,
Russia, 288 pp. (in Russian).
Ali, A., 1996: Vulnerability of Bangladesh to climate change and sea
level rise through tropical cyclones and storm surges. Water, Air, and Soil
Pollution, 92, 171-179.
Allen, M.R., P.A. Stott, J.F.B. Mitchell, R. Schnur, and T.L. Delworth,
2000: Quantifying the uncertainty in forecasts of anthropogenic climate change.
Nature, 407, 617-620.
Andrady, A.L., S.H. Hamid, X. Hu, and A. Torikai, 1998: Effects of increased
solar ultraviolet radiation on materials. Journal of Photochemistry and Photobiology
B: Biology, 46, 96-103.
Anisimov, O.A. and F.E. Nelson, 1996: Permafrost and global warming:
strategies of adaptation. In: Adapting to Climate Change: An International
Perspective [Smith, J.B., N. Bhatti, G. Menzhulin, R. Benioff, M. Campos,
B. Jallow, F. Rijsberman M.I. Budyko, and R.K. Dixon (eds.)]. Springer-Verlag,
New York, NY, USA, pp. 440-449.
ApSimon, H.M., R.F. Warren, and J.J.N. Wilson, 1994: The abatement strategies
assessment model--ASAM: applications to reductions of sulphur dioxide emissions
across Europe. Atmospheric Environment, 28(4), 649-663.
Arndt, R.L., G.R. Carmichael, D.G. Streets, and D.G. Bhatti, 1997: Sulfur
dioxide emissions and sectorial contributions to sulfur deposition in Asia.
Atmospheric Environment, 31(10), 1553-1572.
Arnell, N.W., 1995: Grid mapping of river discharge. Journal of Hydrology,
167, 39-56.
Arnell, N.W., 1999: Climate change and global water resources. Global
Environmental Change, 9, S31-S49.
Arnell, N., B. Bates, H. Lang, J.J. Magnuson, and P. Mulholland, 1996:
Hydrology and freshwater ecology. In: Climate Change 1995: Impacts, Adaptations,
and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analyses. Contribution
of Working Group II to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change [Watson, R.T., M.C. Zinyowera, and R.H. Moss (eds.)].
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA,
pp. 325-363.
Austin, J., N. Butchart, and K.P. Shine, 1992: Possibility of an Arctic
ozone hole in a doubled-CO2 climate. Nature,
360, 221-225.
Barnes, J.D., J.H. Ollerenshaw, and C.P. Whitfield, 1995: Effects of
elevated CO2 and/or O3
on growth, development and physiology of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.).
Global Change Biology, 1, 101-114.
Barrow, C.J., 1991: Land Degradation. Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 295 pp.
Barrow, E.M., M. Hulme, M.A. Semenov, and R.J. Brooks, 2000: Climate
change scenarios. In: Climate Change, Climate Variability and Agriculture
in Europe: An Integrated Assessment [Downing, T.E., P.E. Harrison, R.E.
Butterfield, and K.G. Lonsdale (eds.)]. Research Report No. 21, Environmental
Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom, pp. 11-27.
Bates, B.C., S.P. Charles, N.R. Sumner, and P.M. Fleming, 1994: Climate
change and its hydrological implications for South Australia. Transactions
of the Royal Society of South Australia, 118, 35-43.
Bates, B.C., A.J. Jakeman, S.P. Charles, N.R. Summer, and P.M. Fleming,
1996: Impacts of climate change on Australia's surface water resources. In:
Greenhouse: Coping with Climate Change [Bouma, W.J., G.I. Pearman, and
M.R. Manning (eds.)]. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
Publishing, Collingwood, Victoria, Australia, pp. 248-262.
Bell, R.G., D.G. Goring, and W.P. de Lange, 1999: Rising and extreme
sea levels around New Zealand. Proceedings of the IPENZ Congress 1999.
The Institution of Professional Engineers New Zealand, Wellington, New Zealand,
pp. 121-131.
Bergthórsson, P., H. Björnsson, O. Dyrmundsson, B. Gudmundsson,
A. Helgadóttir, and J.V. Jónmundsson, 1988: The effects of climatic
variations on agriculture in Iceland. In: The Impact of Climatic Variations
on Agriculture. Volume 1. Assessments in Cool Temperate and Cold Regions
[Parry, M.L., T.R. Carter, and N.T. Konijn (eds.)]. Kluwer Academic Publishers,
Dordrecht, The Netherlands, pp. 381-509.
Berkhout, F., J. Hertin, I. Lorenzoni, A. Jordan, K. Turner, T. O'Riordan,
D. Cobb, L. Ledoux, R. Tinch, M. Hulme, J. Palutikof, and J. Skea, 1999: Non-Climate
Futures Study: Socio-Economic Futures Scenarios for Climate Impact Assessment.
Report produced for the United Kingdom Department of Environment, Transport
and the Regions, Science and Technology Policy Research (SPRU), University of
Sussex, Brighton, United Kingdom, 81 pp.
Betts, R.A., P.M. Cox, S.E. Lee, and F.I. Woodward, 1997: Contrasting
physiological and structural vegetation feedbacks in climate change simulations.
Nature, 387, 796-799.
Bijlsma, L., 1996: Coastal zones and small islands. In: Climate Change
1995: Impacts, Adaptations, and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical
Analyses. Contribution of Working Group II to the Second Assessment Report of
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Watson, R.T., M.C. Zinyowera,
and R.H. Moss (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom
and New York, NY, USA, pp. 289-324.
Boer, G.J., G. Flato, and D. Ramsden, 2000: A transient climate change
simulation with greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing: projected climate to the
twenty-first century. Climate Dynamics, 16, 427-450.
Bonan, G.B., 1997: Effects of land use on the climate of the United States.
Climatic Change, 37, 449-486.
Bonan, G.B., D. Pollard, and S.L. Thompson, 1992: Effects of boreal forest
vegetation on global climate. Nature, 359, 716-718.
Borzenkova, I.I., 1998: The accuracy of paleoclimatic information. Meteorology
and Hydrology, 9, 51-61 (in Russian).
Bouwman, A.F. and D.P. van Vuuren, 1999: Global Assessment of Acidification
and Eutrophication of Natural Ecosystems. United Nations Environment Programme,
Division of Environmental Information, Assessment, and Early Warning (UNEP/DEIA&EW),
Nairobi, Kenya, and National Institute of Public Health and the Environment
(RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands, 52 pp.
Brasseur, G.P., D.A. Hauglustaine, S. Walters, P.J. Rasch, J.-F. Müller,
C. Granier, and X.X. Tie, 1998: MOZART, a global chemical transport model for
ozone and related chemical tracers, 1, model description. Journal of Geophysical
Research, 103, 28265-28289.
Braswell, B.H., D.S. Schimel, E. Linder, and B. Moore II, 1997: The response
of global terrestrial ecosystems to interannual temperature variability. Science,
278, 870-872.
Bray, M.J. and J.M. Hooke, 1997: Prediction of soft-cliff retreat with
accelerating sea-level rise. Journal of Coastal Research, 13,
453-467.
Broström, A., M. Coe, S.P. Harrison, R. Gallimore, J.E. Kutzbach,
J. Foley, I.C. Prentice, and P. Behling, 1998: Land surface feedbacks and palaeomonsoons
in northern Africa. Geophysical Research Letters, 25, 3615-3618.
Brown, R.A. and N.J. Rosenberg, 1999: Climate change impacts on the potential
productivity of corn and winter wheat in their primary United States growing
regions. Climatic Change, 41, 73-107.
Brown, R.A., N.J. Rosenberg, W.E. Easterling, C. Hays, and L.O. Mearns,
2000: Potential production and environmental effects of switchgrass and traditional
crops under current and greenhouse-altered climate in the MINK region of the
central United States. Ecology and Agriculture Environment, 78,
31-47.
Bryan, K., 1996: The steric component of sea level rise associated with
enhanced greenhouse warming: a model study. Climate Dynamics, 12,
545-555.
Budyko, M.I. and G.V. Menzhulin, 1996: Climate change impacts on agriculture
and global food production: options for adaptive strategies. In: Adapting
to Climate Change: An International Perspective [Smith, J.B., N. Bhatti,
G. Menzhulin, R. Benioff, M. Campos, B. Jallow, F. Rijsberman M.I. Budyko, and
R.K. Dixon (eds.)]. Springer-Verlag, New York, NY, USA, pp. 188-203.
Caldwell, M.M., L.O. Bjorn, J.F. Bornman, S.D. Flint, G. Kulandaivelu,
A.H. Teramura, and M. Tevini, 1998: Effects of increased solar ultraviolet radiation
on terrestrial ecosystems. Journal of Photochemistry and Photobiology B:
Biology, 46, 40-52.
Carter, T.R., M. Hulme, J.F. Crossley, S. Malyshev, M.G. New, M.E. Schlesinger,
and H. Tuomenvirta, 2000: Climate Change in the 21st Century - Interim Characterizations
based on the New IPCC Emissions Scenarios. The Finnish Environment 433,
Finnish Environment Institute, Helsinki, 148 pp.
Charney, J.G., W.J. Quirk, S.H. Chow, and J. Kornfield, 1977: A comparative
study of the effects of albedo change on drought in semi-arid regions. Journal
of the Atmospheric Sciences, 34, 1366-1385.
Chu, P.-S., Z.-P. Yu, and S. Hastenrath, 1994: Detecting climate change
concurrent with deforestation in the Amazon Basin: which way has it gone? Bulletin
of the American Meteorological Society, 75, 579-583.
Claussen, M., 1997: Modeling bio-geophysical feedback in the African
and Indian monsoon region. Climate Dynamics, 13, 247-257.
Collins, W.J, D.S. Stevenson, C.E. Johnson, and R.G. Derwent, 1997: Tropospheric
ozone in a global-scale three-dimensional Lagrangian model and its response
to NOx emission controls. Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry,
26, 223-274. Covey, C., 1995: Using paleoclimates to predict
future climate: how far can analogy go? Climatic Change, 29, 403-407.
Cramer, W., D.W. Kicklighter, A. Bondeau, B. Moore, G. Churkina, A. Ruimy,
and A. Schloss, 1997: Comparing Global Models of Terrestrial Net Primary
Productivity (NPP): Overview and Key Results. PIK Report No. 30, Potsdam
Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, The Netherlands, 38 pp.
Crowley, T.J., 1990: Are there any satisfactory geologic analogs for
a future greenhouse warming? Journal of Climate, 3, 1282-1292.
Crutzen, P.J. and J.G. Goldammer (eds.), 1993: Fire in the Environment:
The Ecological, Atmospheric, and Climatic Importance of Vegetation Fires.
John Wiley and Sons, Chichester, United Kingdom, 400 pp.
CSIRO, 1997: OzClim--A Climate Scenario Generator and Impacts Package
for Australia. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation,
Division of Atmospheric Research, Climate Impact Group, Aspendale, Australia,
4 pp. Available online at http://www.dar.csiro.au/ publications/ozclim.htm.
Cubasch, U., K. Hasselmann, H. Höck, E. Maier-Reimer, U. Mikolajewicz,
B.D. Santer, and R. Sausen, 1992: Time-dependent greenhouse warming computations
with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Climate Dynamics, 7, 55-69.
Cubasch, U., G.C. Hegerl, and J. Waszkewitz, 1996: Prediction, detection
and regional assessment of anthropogenic climate change. Geophysica,
32, 77-96.
Cure, J.D. and B. Acock, 1986: Crop responses to carbon dioxide doubling:
a literature survey. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 38,
127-145.
de Gruijl, F.R., 1997: Health effects from solar UV radiation. Radiation
Protection Dosimetry, 72, 177-196.
Delcroix, T., 1998: Observed surface oceanic and atmospheric variability
in the tropical Pacific at seasonal and ENSO timescales: a tentative overview.
Journal of Geophysical Research, 103, 18611-18633.
Derwent, R.G., P. Grennfelt, and Ø. Hov, 1991: Photochemical oxidants
in the atmosphere. Status Report Prepared for the Nordic Council of Ministers.
Nord, 7, Nordic Council of Ministers, Copenhagen, 72 pp.
de Wolde, J.R., 1999: Uncertainties in sea-level scenarios. In: Representing
Uncertainty in Climate Change Scenarios and Impact Studies. Proceedings
of the ECLAT-2 Helsinki Workshop, 14-16 April, 1999 [Carter, T.R., M. Hulme,
and D. Viner (eds.)]. Climatic Research Unit, Norwich, United Kingdom, pp. 71-73.
de Wolde, J.R., P. Huybrechts, J. Oerlemans, and R.S.W. VandeWal, 1997:
Projections of global mean sea level rise calculated with a 2D energy-balance
model and dynamic ice sheet models. Tellus Series A, 49, 486-502.
Diffey, B.L., 1992: Stratospheric ozone depletion and the risk of non-melanoma
skin cancer in a British population. Physics in Medicine and Biology,
37, 2267-2279.
Döös, B.R., 1997: Can large-scale environmental migrations
be predicted? Global Environmental Change, 7, 41-61.
Douglas, B.C., 1997: Global sea rise: a redetermination. Surveys in
Geophysics, 18, 279-292.
Downing, T.E., R.E. Butterfield., S. Cohen, S. Huq, R. Moss, A. Rahman,
Y. Sokona, and L. Stephen, 2000: Climate Change Vulnerability: Toward a Framework
for Understanding Adaptability to Climate Change Impacts. UN Environment
Programme, Nairobi, Kenya, and Environmental Change Institute, Oxford, United
Kingdom.
El Raey, M., Y. Fouda, and S. Nasr, 1997: GIS assessment of the vulnerability
of the Rosetta area, Egypt to impacts of sea rise. Environmental Monitoring
and Assessment, 47, 59-77.
Eltahir, E.A.B. and C.L. Gong, 1996: Dynamics of wet and dry years in
West Africa. Journal of Climate, 9, 1030-1042.
EMEP, 1998: Transboundary acidifying air pollution in Europe. In:
Research Report 66, EMEP/MSC-W Status Report 1998, Parts 1 and 2. Cooperative
Programme for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long-Range Transmission of Air
Pollutants in Europe (EMEP), Meteorological Synthesizing Centre-West (MSC-W),
Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Blindern, Norway. Emori, S., T. Nozawa,
A. Abe-Ouchi, A. Numaguti, M. Kimoto, and T. Nakajima, 1999: Coupled ocean-atmosphere
model experiments of future climate change with an explicit representation of
sulfate aerosol scattering. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan,
77, 1299-1307.
FAO, 1999: FAOSTAT Statistics Online Database. Food and Agriculture
Organization, Rome, Italy. Available online at http://apps.fao.org.
Feenstra, J., I. Burton, J.B. Smith, and R.S.J. Tol (eds.), 1998: Handbook
on Methods of Climate Change Impacts Assessment and Adaptation Strategies.
United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi, Kenya, and Institute for Environmental
Studies, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 448 pp.
Feichter, J., E. Kjellstrom, H. Rodhe, F. Dentener, J. Lelieveld, and
G.-J. Roelofs, 1996: Simulation of the tropospheric sulfur cycle in a global
climate model. Atmospheric Environment, 30(11), 1693-1707.
Finlayson-Pitts, B.J. and J.N. Pitts, 1986: Atmospheric Chemistry
Fundamentals and Experimental Techniques. John Wiley and Sons, New York,
NY, USA, 1098 pp.
Fischer, G. and C. Rosenzweig, 1996: The impacts of climate change, carbon
dioxide, and sulfur deposition on agricultural supply and trade: an integrated
impact assessment. In: Climate Change: Integrating Science, Economics and
Policy [Nakicenovic, N., W.D. Nordhaus, R. Richels, and F.L. Toth (eds.)].
IIASA Collaborative Paper CP-96-01, International Institute of Applied
Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, pp. 83-110.
Foell, W.K., C. Green, M. Amann, S. Bhattacharya, G. Carmichael, M. Chadwick,
S. Cinderby, T. Haugland, J.-P. Hettelingh, L. Hordijk, J. Kuylenstierna, J.
Shah, R. Shrestha, D. Streets, and D. Zhao, 1995: Energy use, emissions, and
air pollution reduction strategies in Asia. Water, Air, and Soil Pollution,
85(4), 2277-2282.
Foley, J.A., S. Levis, I.C. Prentice, D. Pollard, and S.L. Thompson,
1998: Coupling dynamic models of climate and vegetation. Global Change Biology,
4, 561-579.
Folland, C.K., T.R. Karl, and K.Ya. Vinnikov, 1990: Observed climate
variations and change. In: Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment
[Houghton, J.T., G.J. Jenkins, and J.J. Ephraums (eds.)]. Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 195-238.
Foster, D.R., G. Motzkin, and B. Slater, 1998: Land-use history as long-term
broad-scale disturbance: regional forest dynamics in Central New England. Ecosystems,
1, 96-119.
Fox-Rabinovitz, M.S., G. Stenchikov, and L.L.Takacs, 1997: A finite-difference
GCM dynamical core with a variable resolution stretched grid. Monthly Weather
Review, 125, 2943-2961.
Fuhrer, J., 1996: The critical levels for effects of ozone on crops,
and the transfer to mapping. In: Critical Levels for Ozone in Europe: Testing
and Finalizing the Concepts. UN-ECE Workshop Report [Kärenlampi,
L. and L. Skärby (eds.)]. University of Kuopio, Finland, pp. 27-43.
Gambolati, G., P. Teatini, L. Tomasi, and M. Gonella, 1999: Coastline
regression of the Romagna region, Italy, due to natural and anthropogenic land
subsidence and sea level rise. Water Resources Research, 35, 163-184.
Ganopolski, A., C. Kubatzki, M. Claussen, V. Brovkin, and V. Petoukhov,
1998: The influence of vegetation-atmosphere-ocean interaction on climate during
the mid-Holocene. Science, 280, 1916-1919.
Gash, J.H.C., C.A. Nobre, J.M. Roberts, and R.L. Victoria (eds.), 1996:
Amazonian Deforestation and Climate. John Wiley and Sons, New York, NY,
USA, 611 pp.
GESAMP, 1990: The State of the Marine Environment. GESAMP Report
No. 39, IMO/FAO/Unesco/WMO/IAEA/UNU/UNEP, Joint Group of Experts on the Scientific
Aspects of Marine Pollution (GESAMP), United Nations Environment Programme,
Nairobi, Kenya, 111 pp. Giorgi, F. and L.O. Mearns, 1991: Approaches
to the simulation of regional climate change: a review. Reviews of Geophysics,
29, 191-216.
Giorgi, F. and L.O. Mearns, 1999: Regional climate modeling revisited:
an introduction to the special issue. Journal of Geophysical Research (Special
Issue on New Developments and Applications with the NCAR Regional Climate Model
[RegCM]), 104(D6), 6335-6352.
Glantz, M. (ed.), 1988: Societal Responses to Regional Climatic Change:
Forecasting by Analogy. Westview Press, Boulder, Colorado, USA, 428 pp.
Gleick, P.H., 1998: The World's Water 1998-1999: The Biennial
Report on Freshwater Resources. Island Press, Washington, DC, USA, 319 pp.
Goldberg, E.D., 1995: Emerging problems in the coastal zone for the twenty-first
century. Marine Pollution Bulletin, 31, 152-158.
Gordon, C., C. Cooper, C.A. Senior, H.T. Banks, J.M. Gregory, T.C. Johns,
J.F.B. Mitchell, and R.A. Wood, 2000: The simulation of SST, sea ice extents
and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without
flux adjustments. Climate Dynamics, 16, 147-168.
Gordon, H.B. and S.P. O'Farrell, 1997: Transient climate change in the
CSIRO coupled model with dynamic sea ice. Monthly Weather Review, 125,
875-907.
Government of Pakistan, 1998: Study on Climate Impact and Adaptation
Strategies for Pakistan. Ministry of Environment, Local Government and Rural
Development, Islamabad, Pakistan.
Goudriaan, J., H.H. Shugart, H. Bugmann, W. Cramer, A. Bondeau, R.H.
Gardner, L.A. Hunt, W.K. Lauwenroth, J.J. Landsberg, S. Linder, I.R. Noble,
W.J. Parton, L.F. Pitelka, M. Stafford Smith, R.W. Sutherst, C. Valentin, and
F.I. Woodward, 1999: Use of models in global change studies. In: The Terrestrial
Biosphere and Global Change: Implications for Natural and Managed Ecosystems
[Walker, B., W. Steffen, J. Canadell, and J. Ingram (eds)]. Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 106-140.
Gregory, J.M. and J. Oerlemans, 1998: Simulated future sea-level rise
due to glacier melt based on regionally and seasonally resolved temperature
changes. Nature, 391, 474-476.
Grennfelt, P., 1996: The second NOx
protocol: how to link science to policy? In: Critical Levels for Ozone in
Europe: Testing and Finalizing the Concepts. UN-ECE Workshop Report [Kärenlampi,
L. and L. Skärby (eds.)]. University of Kuopio, Finland, pp. 108-109.
Grennfelt, P., H. Rodhe, E. Thörnelöf, and J. Wisniewski (eds.),
1996: Acid reign '95? Proceedings of the 5th international conference on acidic
deposition, Göteborg, Sweden, 26-30 June 1995. Water, Air, and
Soil Pollution, 85(1-4), 2730 pp.
Grübler, A., 1998: A review of global and regional sulfur emission
scenarios. Journal of Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,
3, 383-418.
Gwynne-Jones, D., J.A. Lee, and T.V. Callaghan, 1997: Effects of enhanced
UV-B radiation and elevated carbon dioxide concentrations on a sub-arctic forest
heath ecosystem. Plant Ecology, 128, 242-249.
Haarsma, R.J., J.F.B. Mitchell, and C.A. Senior, 1993: Tropical disturbances
in a GCM. Climate Dynamics, 8, 247-257.
Hader, D.-P., H.D. Kumar, R.C. Smith, and R.C. Worrest, 1998: Effects
on aquatic ecosystems. Journal of Photochemistry and Photobiology B: Biology,
46, 53-68.
Hahmann, A.N. and R.E. Dickinson, 1997: RCCM2-BATS model over tropical
South America: applications to tropical deforestation. Journal of Climate,
10, 1944-1964.
Hansen, J., G. Russell, D. Rind, P. Stone, A. Lacis, S. Lebedeff, R.
Ruedy, and L. Travis, 1983: Efficient three-dimensional global models for climate
studies: models I and II. Monthly Weather Review, 111, 609-662.
Hansen, J., I. Fung, A. Lacis, D. Rind, S. Lebedeff, R. Ruedy, and G.
Russell, 1988: Global climate changes as forecast by Goddard Institute for Space
Studies three-dimensional model. Journal of Geophysical Research, 93(D8),
9341-9364.
Harrison, P.A. and R.E. Butterfield, 1996: Effects of climate change
on Europe-wide winter wheat and sunflower productivity. Climate Research,
7, 225-241.
Harvey, L.D.D., J. Gregory, M. Hoffert, A. Jain, M. Lal, R. Leemans,
S.C.B. Raper, T.M.L. Wigley, and J.R. de Wolde, 1997: An introduction to simple
climate models used in the IPCC Second Assessment Report. IPCC Technical
Paper II [Houghton, J.T., L.G. Meira Filho, D.J. Griggs, and K. Maskell
(eds.)]. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, Switzerland, 50
pp.
Hay, E.L., R.B. Wilby, and G.H. Leavesy, 1999: A comparison of delta
change and downscaled GCM scenarios: implications for climate change scenarios
in three mountainous basins in the United States. In: Proceedings of the
AWRA Specialty Conference on Potential Consequences of Climatic Variability
and Change to Water Resources of the United States, May, 1999, Atlanta, GA
[Adams, D.B. (ed.)]. American Water Resources Association, Middleburg, VA, USA,
424 pp.
Hayden, B.P., 1998: Ecosystem feedbacks on climate at the landscape scale.
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, Series B,
353, 5-18.
Haywood, J.M., R.J. Stouffer, R.T. Wetherald, S. Manabe, and V. Ramaswamy,
1997: Transient response of a coupled model to estimated changes in greenhouse
gas and sulfate concentrations. Geophysical Research Letters, 24,
1335-1338.
Henderson-Sellers, A., K. McGuffie, and C. Gross, 1995: Sensitivity of
global climate model simulations to increased stomatal resistance and CO2
increases. Journal of Climate, 8, 1738-1756.
Herman, J.R., P.K. Bhartia, J. Ziemke, Z. Ahmad, and D. Larko, 1996:
UV-B radiation increases (1979-1992) from decreases in total ozone. Geophysical
Research Letters, 23, 2117-2120.
Hewitt, C.D. and J.F.B. Mitchell, 1998: A fully coupled GCM simulation
of the climate of the mid-Holocene. Geophysical Research Letters, 25,
361-364.
Hoekstra, A.Y., 1997: The water submodel: AQUA. In: Perspectives on
Global Change: The TARGETS Approach [Rotmans, J. and B. de Vries (eds.)].
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA,
pp. 109-134.
Houghton, R.A., 1995: Land use change and the carbon cycle. Global
Change Biology, 1, 275-287.
Hulme, M. and O. Brown, 1998: Portraying climate scenario uncertainties
in relation to tolerable regional climate change. Climate Research, 10,
1-14.
Hulme, M. and T.R. Carter, 1999: Representing uncertainty in climate
change scenarios and impact studies. In: Representing Uncertainty in Climate
Change Scenarios and Impact Studies. Proceedings of the ECLAT-2 Helsinki Workshop,
14-16 April, 1999 [Carter, T.R., M. Hulme, and D. Viner (eds.)]. Climatic
Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom, pp. 11-37.
Hulme, M., T. Jiang, and T. Wigley, 1995: SCENGEN: A Climate Change
SCENario GENerator. Software User Manual, Version 1.0. Climatic Research
Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom, 38 pp.
Hulme, M., E.M. Barrow, N. Arnell, P.A. Harrison, T.E. Downing, and T.C.
Johns, 1999a: Relative impacts of human-induced climate change and natural climate
variability. Nature, 397, 688-691.
Hulme, M., J. Mitchell, W. Ingram, J. Lowe, T. Johns, M. New, and D.
Viner, 1999b: Climate change scenarios for global impacts studies. Global
Environmental Change, 9, S3-S19.
Hulme, M., T.M.L. Wigley, E.M. Barrow, S.C.B. Raper, A. Centella, S.
Smith, and A.C. Chipanshi, 2000: Using a Climate Scenario Generator for Vulnerability
and Adaptation Assessments: MAGICC and SCENGEN, Version 2.4 Workbook. Climatic
Research Unit, East Anglia University, Norwich, United Kingdom, 52 pp.
Huntley, B., W.P. Cramer, A.V. Morgan, I.C. Prentice, and J.R.M. Allen
(eds.), 1997: Past and Future Rapid Environmental Changes: The Spatial and
Evolutionary Responses of Terrestrial Biota. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Germany,
523 pp. IASC, 1995: Effects of Increased Ultraviolet Radiation in
the Arctic. IASC Report 2, International Arctic Science Committee, Oslo,
Norway, 56 pp.
IPCC, 1990: Climate Change: The IPCC Impacts Assessment [Tegart,
W.J.McG., G.W. Sheldon, and D.C. Griffiths (eds.)]. Australian Government Publishing
Service, Canberra, Australia, 210 pp.
IPCC, 1994: IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change
Impacts and Adaptations. Part of the IPCC Special Report to the First
Session of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate
Change, Working Group II, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Carter,
T.R., M.L. Parry, H. Harasawa, and S. Nishioka (eds.)]. University College London,
United Kingdom and Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute
for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan, 59 pp.
IPCC, 1996a: Climate Change 1995. The Science of Climate Change. Contribution
of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change [Houghton, J.T., L.G. Meira Filho, B.A. Callander,
N. Harris, A. Kattenberg, and K. Maskell (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 572 pp.
IPCC, 1996b: Climate Change 1995: Impacts, Adaptations, and Mitigation
of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analyses. Contribution of Working Group
II to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change [Watson, R.T., M.C. Zinyowera, and R.H. Moss (eds.)]. Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 880 pp.
IPCC, 1998: The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment
of Vulnerability. Special Report of IPCC Working Group II [Watson, R.T.,
M.C. Zinyowera, and R.H. Moss (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,
United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 517 pp.
IPCC, 2000: Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry. Special Report
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Watson, R.T., I.R.
Noble, B. Bolin, N.H. Ravindranath, D.J. Verardo, and D.J. Dokken (eds.)]. Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 377 pp.
IPCC-DDC, 1999: The IPCC Data Distribution Centre: Providing Climate
Change and Related Scenarios for Impacts Assessments, CD-ROM Version 1.0,
Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom.
Available online at http://ipcc-ddc.cru.uea.ac.uk.
IPCC-TGCIA, 1999: Guidelines on the Use of Scenario Data for Climate
Impact and Adaptation Assessment. Version 1 [Carter, T.R., M. Hulme, and
M. Lal (eds.)]. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Task Group on Scenarios
for Climate Impact Assessment, 69 pp. Available online at http://ipcc-ddc.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru_data/support/guidelines.html.
Izrael, Yu.A. and A.V. Tsyban, 1989: Anthropogenic Ecology of the
Ocean. Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, Russia, 528 pp. (in Russian).
Jackett, D.R., T.J. McDougall, M.H. England, and A.C. Hirst, 2000: Thermal
expansion in ocean and coupled general circulation models. Journal of Climate,
13, 1384-1405.
Jackman, C.H., E.L. Flemming, S. Chandra, D.B. Considine, and J.E. Rosenfeld,
1996: Past, present and future modeled ozone trends with comparisons to observed
trends. Journal of Geophysical Research, 101, 28753-28767.
Jones, R.N., 2000: Managing uncertainty in climate change projections--issues
for impact assessment. Climatic Change, 45, 403-419.
Jones, R.N., K.J. Hennessy, and D.J. Abbs, 1999: Climate Change Analysis
Relevant to Jabiluka, Attachment C--Assessment of the Jabiluka Project. Report
of the Supervising Scientist to the World Heritage Committee, Environment Australia,
Canberra, Australia, 24 pp.
Jordan, A., T. O'Riordan, K. Turner, and I. Lorenzoni, 2000: Europe in
the new millennium. In: Assessment of Potential Effects and Adaptation for
Climate Change in Europe: The Europe ACACIA Project [Parry, M.L.
(ed.)]. Jackson Environment Institute, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United
Kingdom, pp. 35-45.
Kasischke, E.S. and B.J. Stocks (eds.), 2000: Fire, Climate Change
and Carbon Cycling in the Boreal Forest. Springer-Verlag, New York, NY,
USA, 461 pp.
Kattenberg, A., F. Giorgi, H. Grassl, G.A. Meehl, J.F.B. Mitchell, R.J.
Stouffer, T. Tokioka, A.J. Weaver, and T.M.L. Wigley, 1996: Climate models--projections
of future climate. In: Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change.
Contribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change [Houghton, J.T., L.G. Meira Filho, B.A. Callander,
N. Harris, A. Kattenberg, and K. Maskell (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 285-357.
Katz, R.W. and M.B. Parlange, 1996: Mixtures of stochastic processes:
application to statistical downscaling. Climate Research, 7, 185-193.
Kirschbaum, M.U.F., P. Bullock, J.R. Evans, K. Goulding, P.G. Jarvis,
I.R. Noble, M. Rounsevell, and T.D. Sharkey, 1996: Ecophysiological, ecological,
and soil processes in terrestrial ecosystems: a primer on general concepts and
relationships. In: Climate Change 1995: Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation
of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analyses. Contribution of Working Group
II to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change [Watson, R.T., M.C. Zinyowera, and R.H. Moss (eds.)]. Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 57-74.
Klein, R.J.T. and R.J. Nicholls, 1998: Coastal zones. In: UNEP Handbook
on Methods for Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Studies [Burton,
I., J.F. Feenstra, J.B. Smith, and R.S.J. Tol (eds.)]. Version 2.0, United Nations
Environment Programme and Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit,
Amsterdam, The Netherlands, chapter 7, pp. 1-36. Available online at http://www.vu.nl/english/o_o/instituten/
IVM/research/climatechange/Handbook.htm.
Klein Goldewijk, C.G.M., 2001: Estimating global land use change over
the past 300 years: the HYDE 2.0 database. Global Biogeochemical Cycles,
14, (in press).
Klein Tank, A.M.G. and G.P. Können, 1997: Simple temperature scenario
for a Gulf Stream-induced climate change. Climatic Change, 37,
505-512.
Kneshgi, H.S. and A.G. Lapenis, 1996: Estimating the accuracy of Russian
paleotemperature reconstruction. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology,
121, 221-237.
Koruba, V., M.A. Jabbar, and J.A. Akinwumi, 1996: Crop-livestock competition
in the West African derived savannah: application of a multi-objective programming
model. Agricultural Systems, 52, 439-453.
Kropff, M., 1989: Quantification of SO2
Effects on Physiological Processes, Plant Growth and Crop Production. Diss.
Wageningen Agricultural University, CIP-Gegevens Koninklijke Bibliotheek, The
Hague, The Netherlands, 201 pp.
Krupa, S.V. and H.-J. Jäger, 1996: Adverse effects of elevated levels
of ultraviolet (UV)-B radiation and ozone (O3)
on crop growth and productivity. In: Global Climate Change and Agricultural
Production: Direct and Indirect Effects of Changing Hydrological, Pedological
and Plant Physiological Processes [Bazzaz, F. and W. Sombroek (eds.)]. John
Wiley, Chichester, 141-169.
Krupa, S.V., R.N. Kickert, and H.-J. Jäger, 1998: Elevated Ultraviolet
(UV)-B Radiation and Agriculture. Springer-Verlag, Berlin and Heidelberg,
Germany, 296 pp.
Kutzbach, J., G. Bonan, J. Foley, and S.P. Harrison, 1996: Vegetation
and soil feedbacks on the response of the African monsoon to orbital forcing
in the early to middle Holocene. Nature, 384, 623-626.
Langner, J. and H. Rodhe, 1991: A global three-dimensional model of the
tropospheric sulfur cycle. Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry, 13,
225-263. Lean, J. and P.R. Rowntree, 1997: Understanding the sensitivity
of a GCM simulation of Amazonian deforestation to the specification of vegetation
and soil characteristics. Journal of Climate, 10, 1216-1235.
Leemans, R., 1999: Modelling for species and habitats: new opportunities
for problem solving. The Science of the Total Environment, 240,
51-73.
Leemans, R. and G.J. van den Born, 1994: Determining the potential global
distribution of natural vegetation, crops and agricultural productivity. Water,
Air, and Soil Pollution, 76, 133-161.
Leemans, R., S. Agrawala, J.A. Edmonds, M.C. MacCracken, R.M. Moss, and
P.S. Ramakrishnan, 1996a: Mitigation: cross-sectoral and other issues. In: Climate
Change 1995: Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical
Analyses. Contribution of Working Group II to the Second Assessment Report of
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Watson, R.T., M.C. Zinyowera,
and R.H. Moss (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom
and New York, NY, USA, pp. 799-797.
Leemans, R., W. Cramer, and J.G. van Minnen, 1996b: Prediction of global
biome distribution using bioclimatic equilibrium models. In: Effects of Global
Change on Coniferous Forests and Grasslands [Melillo, J.M. and A. Breymeyer
(eds.)]. John Wiley and Sons, New York, NY, USA, pp. 413-450.
Leemans, R., E. Kreileman, G. Zuidema, J. Alcamo, M. Berk, G.J. van den
Born, M. den Elzen, R. Hootsmans, M. Janssen, M. Schaeffer, A.M.C. Toet, and
H.J.M. de Vries, 1998: The IMAGE User Support System: Global Change Scenarios
from IMAGE 2.1. RIVM Publication 4815006, CD-ROM, National Institute of
Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
Leggett, J., W.J. Pepper, and R.J. Swart, 1992: Emissions Scenarios for
IPCC: an update. In: Climate Change 1992. The Supplementary Report to the
IPCC Scientific Assessment [Houghton, J.T., B.A. Callander, and S.K. Varney
(eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York,
NY, USA, pp. 69-95.
Lelieveld, J. and A.M. Thompson, 1998: Tropospheric ozone and related
processes. Scientific assessment of ozone depletion. In: Global Ozone Research
and Monitoring Project [Albritton, D.L., P.J. Aucamp, G. Megie, and R.T.
Watson (eds.)]. Report No. 44, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
Longstreth, J., F.R. de Gruijl, M.L. Kripke, S. Abseck, F. Arnold, H.I.
Slaper, G. Velders, Y. Takizawa, and J.C. van der Leun, 1998: Health risks.
Journal of Photochemistry and Photobiology B: Biology, 46, 20-39.
Lorenzo, E. and L. Teixiera, 1997: Sensitivity of storm waves in Montevideo
(Uruguay) to a hypothetical climate change. Climate Research, 9,
81-85.
Lorenzoni, I., A. Jordan., M. Hulme., R.K. Turner, and T. O'Riordan,
2000: A co-evolutionary approach to climate change impact assessment: part I:
integrating socio-economic and climate change scenarios. Global Environmental
Change, 10, 57-68.
Lough, J.M., T.M.L. Wigley, and J.P. Palutikof, 1983: Climate and climate
impact scenarios for Europe in a warmer world. Journal of Climatology and
Applied Meteorology, 22, 1673-1684.
Loveland, T.R. and A.S. Belward, 1997: The IGBP-DIS global 1 km land
cover data set, DISCover: first results. International Journal of Remote
Sensing, 18, 3291-3295.
Madronich, S., R.L. McKenzie, L.O. Bjorn, and M.M. Caldwell, 1998: Changes
in biologically active ultraviolet radiation reaching the Earth's surface. Journal
of Photochemistry and Photobiology B: Biology, 46, 5-19.
Manabe, S., R.J. Stouffer, M.J. Spelman, and K. Bryan, 1991: Transient
responses of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model to gradual changes of atmospheric
CO2: part I: annual mean response. Journal
of Climate, 4, 785-818.
Manzi, A.O. and S. Planton, 1996: A simulation of Amazonian deforestation
using a GCM calibrated with ABRACOS and ARME data. In: Amazonian Deforestation
and Climate [Gash, J.H.C., C.A. Nobre, J.M. Roberts, and R.L. Victoria (eds.)].
John Wiley and Sons, New York, NY, USA, pp. 505-529. Martens, P.,
1998: Health and Climate Change: Modelling the Impacts of Global Warming
and Ozone Depletion. Earthscan Publications, London, United Kingdom, 176
pp.
Martens, P., R.S. Kovats, S. Nijhof, P. de Vries, M.T.J. Livermore, D.J.
Bradley, J. Cox, and A.J. McMichael, 1999: Climate change and future populations
at risk of malaria. Global Environmental Change, 9, S89-S107.
Martin, M.J., 1997: Models of the Interactive Effects of Rising Ozone,
Carbon Dioxide and Temperature on Canopy Carbon Dioxide Exchange and Isoprene
Emission. Diss. University of Essex, Colchester, United Kingdom, 165 pp.
Materna, J., 1981: Concentration of sulfur dioxide in the air and sulfur
content in Norway spruce needles (Picea abies Karst.). Communicationes
Instituti Forestalis Cechosloveniae, 12, 137-146.
Matsuoka, Y., M. Kainuma, and T. Morita, 1995: Scenario analysis of global
warming using the Asian Pacific Integrated Model (AIM). Energy Policy,
23, 357-371.
Matthijsen, J., K. Suhre, R. Rosset, F. Eisele, R. Mauldin, and D. Tanner,
1998: Photodissociation and UV radiative transfer in a cloudy atmosphere: modeling
and measurements. Journal of Geophysical Research, 103, 16665-16676.
Mayerhofer, P., J. Alcamo, J.G. van Minnen, M. Posch, R. Guardans, B.S.
Gimeno, T. van Harmelen, and J. Bakker, 2000: Regional Air Pollution and
Climate Change in Europe: an Integrated Analysis (AIR-CLIM). Progress Report
2, Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany,
59 pp. Available online at http://www.usf.uni-kassel.de/service/bibliothek.htm.
McDonald, N.J. and B.A. O'Connor, 1996: Changes in wave impact on the
Flemish coast due to increased mean sea level. Journal of Marine Systems,
7, 133-144.
McFarlane, N.A., G.J. Boer, J.-P. Blanchet, and M. Lazare, 1992: The
Canadian Climate Centre second-generation general circulation model and its
equilibrium climate. Journal of Climate, 5, 1013-1044.
McGregor, J.J., 1997: Regional climate modeling. Meteorological Atmospheric
Physics, 63, 105-117.
McInnes, K.L. and G.D. Hubbert, 1996: Extreme Events and the Impact
of Climate Change on Victoria's Coastline. Report No. 488, Victorian Environment
Protection Authority, Melbourne, Australia, 69 pp.
McInnes, K.L., K.J.E. Walsh, and A.B. Pittock, 2000: Impact of Sea
Level Rise and Storm Surges on Coastal Resorts. CSIRO Tourism Research: Final
Report. Division of Atmospheric Research, Commonwealth Scientific, Industrial
and Research Organisation, Aspendale, Australia, 13 pp.
McKenzie, R.L., B. Connor, and G. Bodeker, 1999: Increased summertime
UV radiation in New Zealand in response to ozone loss. Science, 285,
1709-1711.
McPeters, R.D., S.M. Hollandsworth, L.E.Flynn, J.R.Herman, and C.J.Seftor,
1996: Long-term ozone trends derived from the 16-year combined Nimbus 7/Meteor
3 TOMS Version 7 record. Geophysical Research Letters, 23, 3699-3702.
Meadows, D.H., D.L. Meadows, and J. Randers, 1992: Beyond the Limits:
Global Collapse of a Sustainable Future. Earthscan Publications Ltd, London,
United Kingdom, 300 pp.
Mearns, L.O., C. Rosenzweig, and R. Goldberg, 1992: Effect of changes
in interannual climatic variability on CERES-Wheat yields: sensitivity and 2xCO2
general circulation model studies. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,
62, 159-189.
Mearns, L.O., C. Rosenzweig, and R. Goldberg, 1996: The effect of changes
in daily and interannual climatic variability on CERES-Wheat: a sensitivity
study. Climatic Change, 32, 257-292.
Mearns, L.O., C. Rosenzweig, and R. Goldberg, 1997: Mean and variance
change in climate scenarios: methods, agricultural applications, and measures
of uncertainty. Climatic Change, 35, 367-396. Mearns,
L.O., W. Easterling, and C. Hays, 1998: The effect of spatial scale of climate
change scenarios on the determination of impacts: an example of agricultural
impacts on the Great Plains. In: Proceedings of the International Workshop
on Regional Modeling of the General Monsoon System in Asia, Beijing,
October 20-23, 1998. START Regional Committee for Temperate East Asia
Report No. 4, Global Change System for Analysis, Research, and Training (START)
Regional Center for Temperate East Asia, Beijing, China, pp. 70-73.
Mearns, L.O., T. Mavromatis, E. Tsvetsinskaya, C. Hays, and W. Easterling,
1999: Comparative responses of EPIC and CERES crop models to high and low resolution
climate change scenario. Journal of Geophysical Research, 104(D6),
6623-6646.
Mearns, L.O., W. Easterling, and C. Hays, 2001: Comparison of agricultural
impacts of climate change calculated from high and low resolution climate model
scenarios: part I: the uncertainty of spatial scale. Climatic Change,
(in press).
Mela, T. and T. Suvanto, 1987: Peltokasvien Satoennuste Vuoteen 2000
(Field Crop Yield Forecast to the Year 2000). Publication No. 14, Department
of Crop Husbandry, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland, 201 pp. (in Finnish).
Mendelsohn, R. and J. Neumann, 1999: The Impact of Climate Change
on the United States Economy. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United
Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 344 pp.
Mitchell, J.F.B., 1990: Greenhouse warming: is the mid-Holocene a good
analogue? Journal of Climate, 3, 1177-1192.
Mitchell, J.F.B. and T.C. Johns, 1997: On the modification of global
warming by sulphate aerosols. Journal of Climate, 10, 245-267.
Mitchell, J.F.B., S. Manabe, V. Meleshko, and T. Tokioka, 1990: Equilibrium
climate change--and its implications for the future. In: Climate Change:
The IPCC Scientific Assessment [Houghton, J.T., G.J. Jenkins, and J.J. Ephraums
(eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York,
NY, USA, pp. 131-164.
Mitchell, J.F.B., T.C. Johns, M. Eagles, W.J. Ingram, and R.A. Davis,
1999: Towards the construction of climate change scenarios. Climatic Change,
41, 547-581.
Montzka, S.A., J.H. Butler, R.C. Myers, T.M.Thompson, T.H. Swanson, A.D.
Clarke, L.T Lock, and J.W. Elkins, 1996: Decline in the tropospheric abundance
of halogens from halocarbons: implications for stratospheric ozone depletion.
Science, 272, 1318-1322.
Morgan, M.G. and D. Keith, 1995: Subjective judgements by climate experts.
Environmental Science and Technology, 29, 468-476.
Moss, R.H. and S.H. Schneider, 2000: Uncertainties in the IPCC TAR: recommendations
to lead authors for more consistent assessment and reporting. In: Guidance
Papers on the Cross Cutting Issues of the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC
[Pachauri, R., T. Taniguchi, and K. Tanaka (eds.)]. Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 33-51.
Moxey, A.P., B. White, and J.R. O'Callaghan, 1995: CAP reform: an application
of the NELUP Economic model. Journal of Environmental Planning and Management,
38, 117-123.
Munasinghe, M., 2000: Development, equity and sustainability (DES) in
the context of climate change. In: Guidance Papers on the Cross Cutting Issues
of the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC [Pachauri, R., T. Taniguchi,
and K. Tanaka (eds.)]. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, Switzerland,
pp. 69-90.
Murphy, J.M., 1995: Transient response of the Hadley Centre coupled ocean-atmosphere
model to increasing carbon dioxide: part I: control climate and flux correction.
Journal of Climate, 8, 36-56.
Nakicenovic, N., J. Alcamo, G. Davis, B. de Vries, J. Fenhann, S. Gaffin,
K. Gregory, A. Grübler, T.Y. Jung, T. Kram, E.L. La Rovere, L. Michaelis,
S. Mori, T. Morita, W. Pepper, H. Pitcher, L. Price, K. Raihi, A. Roehrl, H.-H.
Rogner, A. Sankovski, M. Schlesinger, P. Shukla, S. Smith, R. Swart, S. van
Rooijen, N. Victor, and Z. Dadi, 2000: Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report
of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 599 pp. National
Assessment Synthesis Team, 1998: US National Assessment: Socio-Economic
Scenarios Guidance Document. United States Global Change Research Program,
National Assessment Coordination Office, Washington, D.C., USA. Available online
at http://www.nacc.usgcrp.gov/ meetings/socio-econ.html.
NDU, 1978: Climate Change to the Year 2000. National Defense University,
Washington, DC, USA.
Nerem, R.S., 1999: Measuring very low frequency sea level variations
using satellite altimeter data. Global and Planetary Change, 20,
157-171.
Nerem, R.S., B.J. Haines, H. Hendricks, J.F. Minster, G.T. Mitchum, and
W.B. White, 1997: Improved determination of global mean sea level variations
using TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data. Geophysical Research Letters, 24,
1331-1334.
New, M., 1999: Uncertainty in representing the observed climate. In:
Representing Uncertainty in Climate Change Scenarios and Impact Studies.
Proceedings of the ECLAT-2 Helsinki Workshop, 14-16 April, 1999 [Carter,
T.R., M. Hulme, and D. Viner (eds.)]. Climatic Research Unit, University of
East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom, pp. 59-66.
NIVA, 1998: Critical Loads and their Exceedances for ICP-Waters Sites.
Programme Centre of the Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA), Oslo,
Norway, 35 pp.
Nicholls, R.J., 1995: Synthesis of vulnerability analysis studies. In:
Preparing to Meet the Coastal Challenges of the 21st Century, Vol. 1.
Proceedings of the World Coast Conference, November 1-5, 1993, Noordwijk,
The Netherlands. CZM-Centre Publication No. 4, Ministry of Transport, Public
Works and Water Management, The Hague, The Netherlands, pp. 181-216.
Nicholls, R.J., F.M.J. Hoozemans, and M. Marchand, 1999: Increasing flood
risk and wetland losses due to global sea-level rise: regional and global analyses.
Global Environmental Change, 9, S69-S87.
Nicholson, S.E., C.J. Tucker, and M.B. Ba, 1998: Desertification, drought,
and surface vegetation: an example from the West African Sahel. Bulletin
of the American Meteorological Society, 79, 815-829.
NPA Data Services, 1999: Analytic documentation of three alternate
socio-economic projections, 1997-2050. NPA Data Services, Inc., Washington,
DC, USA.
Ogilvy, J., 1992: Future studies and the human sciences: the case for
normative scenarios. Futures Research Quarterly, 8(2), 5-65.
Ohmura, A., M. Wild, and L. Bengtsson, 1996: A possible change in the
mass balance of Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets in the coming century. Journal
of Climate, 9, 2124-2135.
Ojanperä, K., E. Pätsikkä, and T. Yläranta, 1998:
Effects of low ozone exposure of spring wheat in open-top chambers on net CO2--uptake,
rubisco, leaf senescence and grain filling. New Phytologist, 138,
451-460.
Olesen, J.E., 1999: Uncertainty in impact studies: agroecosystems. In:
Representing Uncertainty in Climate Change Scenarios and Impact Studies.
Proceedings of the ECLAT-2 Helsinki Workshop, 14-16 April, 1999 [Carter,
T.R., M. Hulme, and D. Viner (eds.)]. Climatic Research Unit, University of
East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom, pp. 78-82.
Olivo, M.D., 1997: Assessment of the vulnerability of Venezuela to sea-level
rise. Climate Research, 9, 57-65.
Pan, Y.A., A.D. McGuire, D.W. Kicklighter, and J.D. Melillo, 1996: The
importance of climate and soils for estimates of net primary production: a sensitivity
analysis with the terrestrial ecosystem model. Global Change Biology,
2, 5-23. Parry, M.L. (ed.), 2000: Assessment of Potential
Effects and Adaptation for Climate Change in Europe: The Europe ACACIA
Project. Jackson Environment Institute, University of East Anglia, Norwich,
United Kingdom, 320 pp.
Parry, M. and M. Livermore (eds.), 1999: A new assessment of the global
effects of climate change. Global Environmental Change, 9, S1-S107.
Parry, M., C. Rosenzweig, A. Iglesias, G. Fischer, and M. Livermore,
1999: Climate change and world food security: a new assessment. Global Environmental
Change, 9, S51-S67.
Parson, E.A., 1999: Assessment methods II: socio-economic scenarios.
Acclimations, 4, 7. Newsletter of the U.S. National Assessment of
Climate Variability and Change available online at http://www.nacc.usgcrp.gov/
newsletter/1999.02/SocEc.htm.
Parson, E.A. and K. Fisher-Vanden, 1997: Integrated assessment models
of global climate change. Annual Review of Energy and the Environment,
22, 589-628.
Peltier, W.R., 1998: Postglacial variations in the level of the sea:
implications for climate dynamics and solid-earth geophysics. Reviews of
Geophysics, 36, 603-689.
Penner, J.E., C.A. Atherton, and T.E. Graedel, 1994: Global emissions
and models of photochemically active compounds. In: Global Atmospheric-Biospheric
Chemistry [Prinn, R.G., (ed.)]. Plenum Press, New York, NY, USA, pp. 223-248.
Penning de Vries, F.W.T., R. Rabbinge, and J.J.R. Groot, 1997: Potential
and attainable food production and food security in different regions. Philosophical
Transactions of the Royal Society of London, Series B, 352, 917-928.
Pepper, W., W. Barbour, A. Sankovski, and B. Braatz, 1998: No-policy
greenhouse gas emission scenarios: revisiting IPCC 1992. Environmental Science
and Policy, 1, 289-312.
Peters, R.L. and T.E. Lovejoy (eds.), 1992: Global Warming and Biological
Diversity. Yale University Press, New Haven, CT, USA, 386 pp.
Peters, L.K., C.M. Berkowitz, G.R. Carmichael, R.C. Easter, G. Fairweather,
S.J. Ghan, G.M. Hales, L.R. Laung, W.R. Pennell, F.A. Potra, and R.D. Saylor,
1995: The current state and future direction of eulerian modelings in simulation
the tropospheric chemistry and transport of trace species: a review. Atmospheric
Environment, 29, 189-222.
Petterson, R., A.J.S. McDonald, and I. Stadenberg, 1993: Response of
small birch plants (Betula pendula Roth.) to elevated CO2
and nitrogen supply. Plant, Cell and Environment, 16, 1115-1121.
Pittock, A.B., 1989: Book review: societal responses to regional climatic
change [Glantz, M. (ed.)]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,
70, 1150-1152.
Pittock, A.B., 1993: Climate scenario development. In: Modelling Change
in Environmental Systems [Jakeman, A.J., M.B. Beck, and M.J. McAleer (eds.)].
John Wiley and Sons, New York, NY, USA, pp. 481-503.
Pittock, A.B., 1999: Climate change: question of significance. Nature,
397, 657.
Pittock, A.B. and R.N. Jones, 2000: Adaptation to what and why? Environmental
Monitoring and Assessment, 61, 9-35.
Poorter, H., 1993: Interspecific variation in the growth response of
plants to an elevated ambient CO2 concentration.
Vegetatio, 104/105, 77-97.
Posch, M., J.-P. Hettelingh, J. Alcamo, and M. Krol, 1996: Integrated
scenarios of acidification and climate change in Asia and Europe. Global
Environmental Change, 6, 375-394.
Rabbinge, R. and M. Van Oijen, 1997: Scenario studies for future agriculture
and crop protection. European Journal of Plant Pathology, 103,
197-201.
Ramankutty, N. and J.A. Foley, 1999: Estimating historical changes in
global land cover: croplands from 1700 to 1992. Global Biogeochemical Cycles,
13, 997-1027. Raskin, P., P., Gleick, P., Kirshen, G., Pontius,
and K. Strzepek, 1997: Water Futures: Assessment of Long-Range Patterns and
Problems. Background Report for the Comprehensive Assessment of the Freshwater
Resources of the World. Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm, Sweden,
78 pp.
Raskin, P., G. Gallopin, P. Gutman, A. Hammond, and R. Swart, 1998: Bending
the Curve: Toward Global Sustainability. Global Scenario Group, Stockholm
Environment Institute, Stockholm, Sweden, 90 pp. (plus appendices).
Reich, P.B., D.S. Ellsworth, B.D. Kleoppel, J.H. Fowner, and G.T. Grower,
1990: Vertical variation in canopy structure and CO2 exchange
of oak-maple forests: influence of ozone, nitrogen, and other factors on simulated
canopy carbon gain. Tree Physiology, 7, 329-345.
Reilly, J., W. Baethgen, F.E. Chege, S. van de Geijn, L. Erda, A. Iglesias,
G. Kenny, D. Patterson, J. Rogasik, R. Rötter, W. Sombroek, J. Westbrook,
D. Bachelet, M. Brklacich, U. Dämmgen, M. Howden, R.J.V. Joyce, P.D. Lingren,
D. Schimmelpfennig, U. Singh, O. Sirotenko, and E. Wheaton, 1996: Agriculture
in a changing climate: impacts and adaptation. In: Climate Change 1995: Impacts,
Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analyses.
Contribution of Working Group II to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change [Watson, R.T., M.C. Zinyowera, and R.H. Moss (eds.)].
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA,
pp. 427-467.
Risbey, J.S. and P.H. Stone, 1996: A case study of the adequacy of GCM
simulations for input to regional climate change assessments. Journal of
Climate, 9, 1441-1467.
Risbey, J., M. Kandlikar, and H. Dowlatabadi, 1999: Scale, context, and
decision making in agricultural adaptation to climate variability and change.
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 4, 137-165.
Robock, A., R.P. Turco, M.A. Harwell, T.P. Ackerman, R. Andressen, H-S.
Chang, and M.V.K. Sivakumar, 1993: Use of general circulation model output in
the creation of climate change scenarios for impact analysis. Climatic Change,
23, 293-335.
Roeckner, E., K. Arpe, L. Bengtsson, M. Christoph, M. Claussen, L. Dümenil,
M. Esch, M. Giorgetta, U. Schlese, and U. Schulzweida, 1996: The Atmospheric
General Circulation Model ECHAM-4: Model Description and Simulation of Present-Day
Climate. Report No. 218, Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg,
Germany, 90 pp.
Rosegrant, M.W., M. Agcaoili-Saombilla, and N.D. Perez, 1995: Global
Food Projections to 2020: Implications for Investment, Food, Agriculture and
the Environment. 2020 Vision Discussion Paper 5, International Food Policy
Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington DC, USA, 54 pp.
Rosenberg, N.J. (ed.), 1993: Towards an integrated assessment of climate
change: the MINK Study. Climatic Change (Special Issue), 24, 1-173.
Rosenberg, N.J., P.R. Crosson, K.D. Frederick, W.E. Easterling, M.S.
McKenney, M.D. Bowes, R.A. Sedjo, J. Darmstadter, L.A. Katz, and K.M. Lemon,
1993: The MINK methodology: background and baseline: paper 1. Climatic Change,
24, 7-22.
Rosenthal, D.H., H.K. Gruenspecht, and E.A. Moran, 1995: Effects of global
warming on energy use for space heating and cooling in the United States. Energy
Journal, 16, 41-54.
Rosenzweig, C. and M.L. Parry, 1994: Potential impact of climate change
on world food supply. Nature, 367, 133-138.
Rosenzweig, C., J. Phillips, R. Goldberg, J. Carroll, and T. Hodges,
1996: Potential impacts of climate change on citrus and potato production in
the U.S. Agricultural Systems, 52, 455-479.
Rotmans, J. and B. de Vries (eds.), 1997: Perspectives on Global Change:
The TARGETS Approach. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom
and New York, NY, USA, 479 pp.
Rotmans, J. and H. Dowlatabadi, 1998: Integrated assessment modelling.
In: Human Choice and Climate Change. Volume 3: The Tools for Policy Analysis
[Rayner, S. and E.L. Malone (eds.)]. Batelle Press, Columbus, Ohio, USA, pp.
291-377. Rotmans, J., M. Hulme, and T.E. Downing, 1994: Climate
change implications for Europe: an application of the ESCAPE model. Global
Environmental Change, 4, 97-124.
Rovinsky, F.Ya. and V.I. Yegorov, 1986: Ozone and Oxides of Sulphur
and Nitrogen in the Lower Atmosphere. Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, Russia,
184 pp. (in Russian).
Rummukainen, M., 1997: Methods for Statistical Downscaling of GCM
Simulations. Report No. 80, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute,
Norrköping, Sweden, 29 pp.
Runeckles, V.C. and S.V. Krupa, 1994: The impact of UV-B radiation and
ozone on terrestrial vegetation. Environmental Pollution, 83,
191-213.
Ryaboshapko, A.G., L. Gallardo, E. Klellstrom, S. Gromov, S. Paramonov,
O. Afinogenova, and H. Rodhe, 1998: Balance of oxidized sulfur and nitrogen
over the former Soviet Union territory. Atmospheric Environment, 32(4),
647-658.
Sala, O.E., F.S. Chapin III, J.J. Armesto, E. Berlow, J. Bloomfield,
R. Dirzo, E. Huber-Sanwald, L.F. Huenneke, R. Jackson, A. Kinzig, R. Leemans,
D. Lodge, H.A. Mooney, M. Oesterheld, L. Poff, M.T. Sykes, B.H. Walker, M. Walker,
and D. Wall, 2000: Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100. Science,
287, 1770-1774.
Sælthun, N.R., P. Aittoniemi, S. Bergström, K. Einarsson,
T. Jóhannesson, G. Lindström, P.-E. Ohlsson, T. Thomsen, B. Vehviläinen,
and K.O. Aamodt, 1998: Climate change impacts on runoff and hydropower in the
Nordic countries. In: TemaNord, 552. Nordic Council of Ministers,
Copenhagen, Denmark, 170 pp.
Santer, B., 1985: The use of general circulation models in climate impact
analysis--a preliminary study of the impacts of a CO2-induced
climatic change on West European agriculture. Climatic Change, 7,
71-93.
Santer, B.D., T.M.L. Wigley, M.E. Schlesinger, and J.F.B. Mitchell, 1990:
Developing Climate Scenarios from Equilibrium GCM Results. Report No.
47, Max-Planck-Institut-für-Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany, 29 pp.
Sarmiento, J.L., T.M.C. Hughes, R.J. Stouffer, and S. Manabe, 1998: Simulated
response of the ocean carbon cycle to anthropogenic climate warming. Nature,
393, 245-249.
Saunders, P.W.J., 1985: Regulations and research on SO2
and its effects on plants in the European Communities. In: Sulfur Dioxide
and Vegetation: Physiology, Ecology and Policy Issues [Winner, W.E., H.A.
Mooney, and R.A. Goldstein (eds.)]. Stanford University Press, Stanford, CA,
USA, pp. 37-55.
Schimel, D., I. Enting, M. Heimann, T. Wigley, D. Raynaud, D. Alves,
and U. Siegenthaler, 1995: CO2 and the carbon
cycle. In: Climate Change 1994: Radiative Forcing of Climate Change and an
Evaluation of the IPCC IS92 Emission Scenarios [Houghton, J.T., L.G. Meira
Filho, J. Bruce, H. Lee, B.A. Callander, E. Haites, N. Harris, and K. Maskell
(eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York,
NY, USA, pp. 35-71.
Schimel, D., M. Grubb, F. Joos, R. Kaufmann, R. Moss, W. Ogana, R. Richels,
T. Wigley, R. Cannon, J. Edmonds, E. Haites, D. Harvey, A. Jain, R. Leemans,
K. Miller, R. Parkin, E. Sulzman, R. Tol, J. de Wolde, and M. Bruno, 1997a:
Stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gases: physical, biological, and socio-economic
implications. IPCC Technical Paper III [Houghton, J.T., L.G. Meira Filho,
D.J. Griggs, and K. Maskell (eds)]. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
Geneva, Switzerland, 51 pp.
Schimel, D.S., VEMAP members, and B.H. Braswell, 1997b. Continental scale
variability in ecosystem processes: models, data, and the role of disturbance.
Ecological Monographs, 67, 251-271.
Schlesinger, M.E. and J.F.B. Mitchell, 1987: Climate model simulations
of the equilibrium climatic response to increased carbon dioxide. Reviews
of Geophysics, 25, 760-798.
Schlesinger, M.E. and Z.C. Zhao, 1989: Seasonal climate changes induced
by doubled CO2 as simulated by the OSU atmospheric
GCM mixed layer ocean model. Journal of Climate, 2, 459-495.
Schöpp, W., M. Amann, J. Cofala, C. Heyes, and Z. Klimont, 1999:
Integrated assessment of European air pollution emission control strategies.
Environmental Modelling and Software, 14, 1-9.
Sellers, P.J., L. Bounoua, G.J. Collatz, D.A. Randall, D.A. Dazlich,
S.O. Los, J.A. Berry, I. Fung, C.J. Tucker, C.B. Field, and T.G. Jensen, 1996:
Comparison of radiative and physiological effects of doubled atmospheric CO2
on climate. Science, 271, 1402-1406.
Semenov, M.A. and E.M. Barrow, 1997: Use of a stochastic weather generator
in the development of climate change scenarios. Climatic Change, 35,
397-414.
Semenov, M.A. and J.R. Porter, 1995: Climatic variability and the modelling
of crop yields. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 73, 265-283.
Semenov, S.M., B.A. Koukhta, and A.A. Rudkova, 1997: Assessment of the
tropospheric ozone effect on higher plants. Russian Meteorology and Hydrology,
12, 36-40.
Semenov, S.M., I.M. Kounina, and B.A. Koukhta, 1998: An ecological analysis
of anthropogenic changes in ground-level concentrations of O3,
SO2, and CO2
in Europe. Doklady Biological Sciences, 361, 344-347.
Semenov, S.M., I.M. Kounina, and B.A. Koukhta, 1999: Tropospheric
Ozone and Plant Growth in Europe. Publishing Center, Meteorology and Hydrology,
Moscow, Russia, 88 pp. (in Russian with English summary).
SEPA, 1993: Ground-Level Ozone and Other Photochemical Oxidants in
the Environment. Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, Stockholm, Sweden,
68 pp.
Shiklomanov, I.A., 1998: Assessment of Water Resources and Water Availability
in the World. Background Report for the Comprehensive Assessment of the Freshwater
Resources of the World. Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm, Sweden,
88 pp.
Shindell, D.T., D. Rind, and P. Lonergan, 1998: Climate change and the
middle atmosphere: part IV: ozone response to doubled CO2.
Journal of Climate, 11, 895-918.
Shine, K.P., R.G. Derwent, D.J. Wuebbles, and J-J. Morcrette, 1990: Radiative
forcing of climate. In: Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment
[Houghton, J.T., G.J. Jenkins, and J.J. Ephraums (eds.)]. Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 41-68.
Simpson, D., 1992: Long-period modelling of photochemical oxidants in
Europe: calculations for July 1985. Atmospheric Environment, 26A,
1609-1634.
Simpson, D., 1995a: Hydrocarbon reactivity and ozone formation in Europe.
Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry, 20, 163-177.
Simpson, D., 1995b: Biogenic emissions in Europe 2: implications for
ozone control strategies. Journal of Geophysical Research, 100(D11),
22891-22906.
Simpson, D., A. Guenther, C.N. Hewitt, and R. Steinbrecher, 1995: Biogenic
emissions in Europe 1; estimates and uncertainties. Journal of Geophysical
Research, 100(D11), 22875-22890.
Simpson, D., K. Olendrzynski, A. Semb, E. Støren, and S. Unger,
1997: Photochemical Oxidant Modelling in Europe: Multi-Annual Modelling and
Source-Receptor Relationships. EMEP/MSC-W Report 3/97, Norwegian Meteorological
Institute, Oslo, Norway.
Sirotenko, O.D., E.V. Abashina, and V.N. Pavlova, 1995: Sensitivity of
agriculture of Russia to changes in climate, chemical composition of the atmosphere
and soil fertility. Meteorology and Hydrology, 4, 107-114
(in Russian).
Skole, D. and C. Tucker, 1993: Tropical deforestation and habitat fragmentation
in the Amazon: satellite data from 1978 to 1988. Science, 260,
1905-1910.
Spencer, N.E., and P.L. Woodworth, 1993: Data Holdings of the Permanent
Service for Mean Sea Level. Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level, Bidston,
Birkenhead, United Kingdom, 81 pp.
Smith, I.N., 1998: Estimating mass balance components of the Greenland
ice sheet from a long-term GCM simulation. Global and Planetary Change,
20, 19-32.
Smith, J.B. and M. Hulme, 1998: Climate change scenarios. In: UNEP
Handbook on Methods for Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Studies
[Burton, I., J.F. Feenstra, J.B. Smith, and R.S.J. Tol (eds.)]. Version 2.0,
United Nations Environment Programme and Institute for Environmental Studies,
Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, pp. 3-1 to 3-40. Available online at http://www.vu.nl/english/o_o/instituten/IVM/
research/climatechange/Handbook.htm Smith, J.B. and D.A. Tirpak (eds.),
1989: The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States.
Report to Congress, United States Environmental Protection Agency, EPA-230-05-89-050,
Washington, DC, USA, 409 pp.
Smith, J.B., S. Huq, S. Lenhart, L.J. Mata, I. Nemesová, and S.
Toure (eds.), 1996: Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change. Interim
Results from the U.S. Country Studies Program. Kluwer Academic Publishers,
Dordrecht, The Netherlands, 366 pp.
Smith, I.N., W.F. Budd, and P. Reid, 1998: Model estimates of Antarctic
accumulation rates and their relationship to temperature changes. Annals
of Glaciology, 27, 246-250.
Sokolov, A.P. and P.H. Stone, 1998: A flexible climate model for use
in integrated assessments, Climate Dynamics, 14, 291-303.
Sokolov, A., C. Wang, G. Holian, P. Stone, and R. Prinn, 1998: Uncertainty
in the oceanic heat and carbon uptake and its impact on climate projections.
Geophysical Research Letters, 25, 3603-3606.
Spencer, N.E. and P.L. Woodworth, 1993: Data Holdings of the Permanent
Service for Mean Sea Level (November 1993). Permanent Service for Mean Sea
Level, Bidston, Birkenhead, United Kingdom, 81 pp.
Stevenson, D.S., C.E. Johnson, W.J. Collins, R.G. Derwent, and J.M. Edwards,
2000: Future tropospheric ozone radiative forcing and methane turnover--the
impact of climate change. Geophysical Research Letters, 27, 2073-2076.
Stocker, T.F. and A. Schmittner, 1997: Influence of CO2
emission rates on the stability of the thermohaline circulation. Nature,
388, 862-865.
Strain, B.R. and J.D. Cure (eds.), 1985: Direct Effects of Increasing
Carbon Dioxide on Vegetation. DOE/ER-0238, U.S. Department of Energy, Office
of Energy Research, Washington, DC, USA, 286 pp.
Strzepek, K.M., S.C. Onyeji, M. Saleh, and D. Yates, 1995: An assessment
of integrated climate change impact on Egypt. In: As Climate Changes: International
Impacts and Implications [Strzepek, K.M. and J. Smith (eds.)]. Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 180-200.
Sullivan, J.H., 1997: Effects of increasing UV-B radiation and atmospheric
CO2 on photosynthesis and growth: implications
for terrestrial ecosystems. Plant Ecology, 128, 195-206.
Terjung, W.H., D.M. Liverman, J.T. Hayes, P.A. O'Rourke, and P.E. Todhunter,
1984: Climatic change and water requirements for grain corn in the North American
Great Plains. Climatic Change, 6, 193-220.
Texier, D., N. de Noblet, S.P. Harrison, A. Haxeltine, D. Jolly, S. Joussaume,
F. Laarif, I.C. Prentice, and P. Tarasov, 1997: Quantifying the role of biosphere-atmosphere
feedbacks in climate change: a coupled model simulation for 6000 yr BP and comparison
with paleodata for northern Eurasia and northern Africa. Climate Dynamics,
13, 865-881.
Thompson, S.L. and D. Pollard, 1995: A global climate model (GENESIS)
with a land-surface-transfer scheme (LSX): part II: CO2
sensitivity. Journal of Climate, 8, 1104-1121.
Thompson, S.L. and D. Pollard, 1997: Greenland and Antarctic mass balances
for present and doubled CO2 from the GENESIS
version 2 global climate model. Journal of Climate, 10, 871-900.
Titus, J. and V. Narayanan, 1996: The risk of sea level rise: a delphic
Monte Carlo analysis in which twenty researchers specify subjective probability
distributions for model coefficients within their respective areas of expertise.
Climatic Change, 33(2), 151-212.
Tol, R., 1998: Socio-economic scenarios. In: UNEP Handbook on Methods
for Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Studies [Burton, I.,
J.F. Feenstra, J.B. Smith, and R.S.J. Tol (eds.)]. Version 2.0, United Nations
Environment Programme and Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit,
Amsterdam, The Netherlands, Chapter 2, pp. 1-19. Available online at http://www.vu.nl/english/o_o/instituten/
IVM/research/climatechange/Handbook.htm. Trenberth, K.E. and T.J. Hoar,
1997: El Niño and climate change. Geophysical Research Letters,
24, 3057-3060.
Tsyban, A.V., 1997: Ecological problems associated with human activities
affecting the World Ocean. In: Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the Oceanographic
Society of Japan. Oceanographic Society of Japan, Tsukuba, Japan, pp. 58-68.
Turner, B.L., D.L. Skole, S. Sanderson, G. Fischer, L. Fresco, and R.
Leemans, 1995: Land-Use and Land-Cover Change: Science/Research Plan.
IGBP Report No. 35 and HDP Report No. 7, International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme
and Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Programme, Stockholm, Sweden,
132 pp.
UK-DETR, 1999: Climate Change and its Impacts: Stabilisation of CO2
in the Atmosphere. United Kingdom Department of the Environment, Transport
and the Regions, The Met Office, Bracknell, UK, 28 pp.
UK National Foresight Programme, 1999: Environmental Futures.
Office of Science and Technology, Department of Trade and Industry, London,
United Kingdom, 24 pp.
UN/ECE, 1998: Integrated Assessment Modelling. Document EB.AIR/1998/1,
UN Economic Commission for Europe, Geneva, Switzerland, 27 pp.
UNEP/GEMS, 1995: Water Quality of World River Basins [Fraser,
A.S., M. Meybeck, and E.D. Ongley (eds.)]. UNEP Environment Library No. 14,
United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi, Kenya, 40 pp.
Unsworth, M.H. and W.E. Hogsett, 1996: Combined effects of changing CO2,
temperature, UV-B radiation and O3 on crop
growth. In: Global Climate Change and Agricultural Production: Direct and
Indirect Effects of Changing Hydrological, Pedological and Plant Physiological
Processes [Bazzaz, F. and W. Sombroek (eds.)]. John Wiley and Sons, Chichester,
United Kingdom, pp. 171-197.
Van de Wal, R.S.W. and J. Oerlemans, 1997: Modelling the short-term response
of the Greenland ice-sheet to global warming. Climate Dynamics, 13,
733-744.
van der Sluijs, J.P., 1997: Anchoring Amid Uncertainty. On the Management
of Uncertainties in Risk Assessment of Anthropogenic Climate Change. Diss.
University of Utrecht, The Netherlands, 260 pp.
Van Latesteijn, H.C., 1995: Assessment of future options for land use
in the European Community. Ecological Engineering, 4, 211-222.
VEMAP members, 1995: Vegetation/ecosystem modeling and analysis project:
comparing biogeography and biogeochemistry models in a continental-scale study
of terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate change and CO2
doubling. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 9, 407-437.
Vitousek, P.M., J.D. Aber, R.W. Howarth, G.E. Likens, P.A. Matson, D.W.
Schindler, W.H. Schlesinger, and D.G. Tilman, 1997: Human alteration of the
global nitrogen cycle: sources and consequences. Ecological Applications,
7, 737-750.
von Storch, H., 1995: Inconsistencies at the interface of climate impact
studies and global climate research. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, N.F.,
4, 72-80.
von Storch, H., E. Zorita, and U. Cubasch, 1993: Downscaling of global
climate change estimates to regional scales: an application to Iberian rainfall
in wintertime. Journal of Climate, 6, 1161-1171.
Walker, B., W. Steffen J. Canadell, and J. Ingram (eds.), 1999: The
Terrestrial Biosphere and Global Change: Implications for Natural and Managed
Ecosystems. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New
York, NY, USA, 439 pp.
Walsh, K.J.E., D.R. Jackett, T.J. McDougall, and A.B. Pittock, 1998:
Global Warming and Sea Level Rise on the Gold Coast. Report Prepared
for the Gold Coast City Council, CSIRO Atmospheric Research, Mordialloc, Australia,
34 pp. Warrick, R.A., C. Le Provost, M.F. Meier, J. Oerlemans, and P.L.
Woodworth, 1996: Changes in sea level. In: Climate Change 1995: The Science
of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Houghton, J.T.,
L.G. Meira Filho, B.A. Callander, N. Harris, A. Kattenberg, and K. Maskell (eds.)].
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA,
359-405.
Washington, W.M. and G.A. Meehl, 1984: Seasonal cycle experiment on the
climate sensitivity due to a doubling of CO2
with an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a simple mixed layer
ocean model. Journal of Geophysical Research, 89, 9475-9503.
Washington, W.M. and G.A. Meehl, 1996: High-latitude climate change in
a global coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice model with increased atmospheric CO2.
Journal of Geophysical Research, 101, 12795-12801.
Watterson, I.G., S.P. O'Farrell, and M.R. Dix, 1997: Energy transport
in climates simulated by a GCM which includes dynamic sea-ice. Journal of
Geophysical Research, 102(D10), 11027-11037.
WCC'93, 1994: Preparing to Meet the Coastal Challenges of the 21st
Century. Report of the World Coast Conference, Noordwijk, 1-5 November
1993. Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management, The Hague,
The Netherlands, 49 pp. (plus appendices).
Wetherald, R.T. and S. Manabe, 1986: An investigation of cloud cover
change in response to thermal forcing. Climatic Change, 8, 5-23.
Weyant, J., O. Davidson, H. Dowlabathi, J. Edmonds, M. Grubb, E.A. Parson,
R. Richels, J. Rotmans, P.R. Shukla, R.S.J. Tol, W. Cline, and S. Fankhauser,
1996: Integrated assessment of climate change: an overview and comparison of
approaches and results. In: Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions
of Climate Change [Bruce, J.P., H. Lee, and E.F. Haites (eds.)]. Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 367-396.
Wheeler, T.R., T.D. Hong, R.H. Ellis, G.R. Batts, J.I.L. Morison, and
P. Hadley, 1996: The duration and rate of grain growth, and harvest index, of
wheat (Triticum aestivum) in response to temperature and CO2.
Journal of Experimental Botany, 47, 623-630.
Whelpdale, D.M. and M.S. Kaiser (eds.), 1997: Global Acid Deposition
Assessment. Global Atmosphere Watch No. 106, WMO-TD 777, World Meteorological
Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, 241 pp.
Whetton, P.H., J.J. Katzfey, K. Nguyen, J.L. McGregor, C.M. Page, T.I.
Eliot, and K.J. Hennessy, 1998: Fine Resolution Climate Change Scenarios
for New South Wales. Part 2: Climatic Variability. Commonwealth Scientific
and Industrial Research Organisation, Division of Atmospheric Research, Climate
Impact Group, Aspendale, Victoria, Australia, 51 pp.
Whetton, P.H., J.J. Katzfey, K.J. Hennesey, X. Wu, J.L. McGregor, and
K. Nguyen, 2001: Developing scenarios of climate change for southeastern Australia:
an example using regional climate model output. Climate Research, (in
press).
White, A., M.G.R. Cannell, and A.D. Friend, 1999: Climate change impacts
on ecosystems and the terrestrial carbon sink: a new assessment. Global Environmental
Change, 9, S21-S30.
WHO, 1995: Community Water Supply and Sanitation: Needs, Challenges
and Health Objectives. Report A48/INF.DOC./2 of the Director-General, World
Health Organization, World Health Assembly, Geneva, Switzerland.
Wigley, T.M.L. and S.C.B. Raper, 1992: Implications for climate and sea
level of revised IPCC emissions scenarios. Nature, 357, 293-300.
Wigley, T.M.L. and S.C.B. Raper, 1993: Future changes in global mean
temperature and thermal-expansion-related sea level rise. In: Climate and
Sea Level Change: Observations, Predictions and Implications [Warrick, R.A.,
E.M. Barrow, and T.M.L. Wigley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,
United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 111-133.
Wigley, T.M.L. and S.C.B Raper, 1995: An heuristic model for sea level
rise due to the melting of small glaciers. Geophysical Research Letters,
22, 2749-2752. Wilby, R.L., 1997: Non-stationarity in daily
precipitation series: implications for GCM down-scaling using atmospheric circulation
indices. International Journal of Climatology, 17, 439-454.
Wilby, R.L. and T.M.L. Wigley, 1997: Downscaling general circulation
model output: a review of methods and limitations. Progress in Physical Geography,
21, 530-548.
Wilby, R.L., T.M.L. Wigley, D. Conway, P.D. Jones, B.C. Hewitson, J.
Main, and D.S. Wilks, 1998: Statistical downscaling of general circulation model
output: a comparison of methods. Water Resources Research, 34,
2995-3008.
Wilks, D.S., 1992: Adapting stochastic weather generation algorithms
for climate change studies. Climatic Change, 22, 67-84.
Williams, G.D.V., R.A. Fautley, K.H. Jones, R.B. Stewart, and E.E. Wheaton,
1988: Estimating effects of climatic change on agriculture in Saskatchewan,
Canada. In: The Impact of Climatic Variations on Agriculture. Volume 1. Assessments
in Cool Temperate and Cold Regions [Parry, M.L., T.R. Carter, and N.T. Konijn
(eds.)]. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, pp. 219-379.
Wilson, C.A. and J.F.B. Mitchell, 1987: Simulated CO2
induced climate change over western Europe. Climatic Change, 10,
11-42.
Woodward, F.I., 1992: Predicting plant response to global environmental
change. New Phytologist, 122, 230-251.
Woolhiser, D.A., T.O. Keefer, and K.T. Redmond, 1993: Southern oscillation
effects on daily precipitation in the southwestern United States. Water Resources
Research, 29, 1287-1295.
Yohe, G.W. and M.E. Schlesinger, 1998: Sea-level change: the expected
economic cost of protection or abandonment in the United States. Climatic
Change, 38, 337-472.
Yohe, G., M. Jacobsen, and T. Gapotchenko, 1999: Spanning "not-implausible"
futures to assess relative vulnerability to climate change and climate variability.
Global Environmental Change, 9, 233-249.
Zeidler, R.B., 1996: Climate change vulnerability and response strategies
for the coastal zone of Poland. Climatic Change, 36, 151-173.
Zeng, N., 1998: Understanding climate sensitivity to tropical deforestation
in a mechanistic model. Journal of Climate, 11, 1969-1975.
Zeng, N. and J.D. Neelin, 1999: A land-atmosphere interaction theory
for the tropical deforestation problem. Journal of Climate, 12,
857-887.
Zepp, R.G., T.V. Callaghan, and D.J. Erickson, 1998: Effects of enhanced
solar ultraviolet radiation on biogeochemical cycles. Journal of Photochemistry
and Photobiology B: Biology, 46, 69-82.
Zerefos, C.S. and F.B. Alkiviadis, 1997: Solar Ultraviolet Radiation:
Modelling, Measurements, and Effects. NATO Asi Series I, Global Environmental
Change, Springer-Verlag, Berlin and Heidelberg, Germany, 52, 336 pp.
Zhang, H., A. Henderson-Sellers, and K. McGuffie, 1996: Impacts of tropical
deforestation: part I: process analysis of local climatic change. Journal
of Climate, 9, 1497-1517.
Zwartz, D., P. Tregoning, K. Lambeck, P. Johnston, and J. Stone, 1999:
Estimates of present-day glacial rebound in the Lambert Glacier region, Antarctica.
Geophysical Research Letters, 26, 1461-1464.
|