8.5.3. Natural Disasters and Development
Disasters may have a significant impact on the national economy of the country
concerned. Some countries lose annually up to 1% or more of their annual GDP
as a consequence of recurring natural disaster; in individual cases, damages
have been as high as 50% of GDP. The typical Chinese loss experience in bad
years is in the range of 5-7% of annual GDP. In 1974, losses in Honduras
from Hurricane Fifi were equivalent to 50% of the country's 1973 GDP (Hooke,
2000). Setbacks in development may have been up to 1 decade or more. The majority
of these damages usually are covered by the affected population itself or from
other domestic sources (United Nations, 1994). In some cases, the relation between
GDP and disasters is ambiguous because post-disaster investments may increase
GDP. Long-term problems arise when the return period of a disaster is the same
order of magnitude or smaller than the time needed for reconstruction. In such
cases, the economy of a country or a specific region is likely to spiral downward
(Downing et al., 1999). In fact, GDP is a very limited way of describing
the impact of weather-related disasters. For example, the UN has defined a disaster
as large when the ability of the region to cope with the effects of the disaster
on its own is exceeded.
Urban and rural infrastructure loss in the developing world as a result of
natural disasters has impacted the activity of the world's international
lending institutions. The World Bank has estimated that it has loaned US$14
billion to developing countries in the past 20 years for damages from natural
disasters. This amount is nearly 2.5 times the amount loaned by the Bank for
relief from civil disturbance worldwide (Kreimer et al., 1998). The Asian
Development Bank (ADB) has estimated that between 1988 and 1998, 5.6% of ADB
loans were for disaster rehabilitation. In 1992, nearly 20% of ADB loans were
for rehabilitative assistance to natural disaster recovery (Arriens and Benson,
1999). The World Bank has estimated that during the past decade in Mexico, as
much as 35% of its lending earmarked for infrastructure has been diverted to
pay for the costs of (Mexican) natural catastrophes (Freeman, 1999). In recent
years, the World Bank has recognized the importance of disaster prevention and
mitigation for development and poverty reduction (Kreimer and Arnold, 2000).
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