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Table 11-6: Prevalence of undernourishment in developing countries of Asia (FAO, 1999a; UNICEF, 1999).
Country/Region	Popu-lation, 1996 (millions)	Main Cereal Consumed, 1995-1997	Dietary Energy Supply per Person, 1995-1997 (kcal day-1)	Access to Adequate Sanitation, 1990-1997 (%)	Under 5 Mortality Rate, 1995 (per 1000)	Number of Under- nourished People (millions)	Fraction of Population Under- nourished, 1979-1981 (%)	Fraction of Population Under- nourished, 1995-1997 (%)
Arid and Semi-Arid Asia
- Afghanistan	20.3	Wheat	1730	8	257	12.7	33	62
- Iran	63.5	Wheat	2830	81	40	3.7	9	6
- Iraq	20.6	Wheat	2370	75	71	3.2	4	15
- Jordan	4.4	Wheat	2910	77	25	0.1	6	3
- Kuwait	1.7	Wheat	3060	—	14	0.1	4	3
- Lebanon	3.1	Wheat	3270	63	40	0.1	8	2
- Pakistan	140.1	Wheat	2460	56	137	26.3	31	19
- Saudi Arabia	18.9	Wheat	2800	86	34	0.7	3	4
- Syrian Arab Republic	14.6	Wheat	3330	67	36	0.2	3	1
- Turkey	62.3	Wheat	3520	80	50	1.0	2	2
- United Arab Emirates	2.3	Rice/Wheat	3360	92	19	0.0	1	2
Temperate Asia
- China	1238.8	Rice	2840	24	47	164.4	30	13
- Korea, DPR	22.6	Maize/Rice	1980	—	30	10.8	19	48
- Korea, Republic	45.3	Rice	3160	100	9	0.4	1	1
- Mongolia	2.5	Wheat	1920	86	74	1.2	27	48
South Asia
- Bangladesh	120.6	Rice	2080	43	115	44.0	42	37
- India	950.0	Rice	2470	29	115	204.4	38	22
- Nepal	21.8	Rice	2320	16	114	4.6	46	21
- Sri Lanka	18.1	Rice	2290	63	19	4.6	22	25
Southeast Asia
- Cambodia	10.2	Rice	2050	19	174	3.4	62	33
- Indonesia	200.4	Rice	2900	59	75	11.5	26	6
- Laos	4.9	Rice	2060	18	134	1.6	32	33
- Malaysia	20.5	Rice	2940	94	13	0.4	4	2
- Myanmar	43.4	Rice	2850	43	150	2.8	19	7
- Philippines	69.9	Rice	2360	75	53	15.6	27	22
- Thailand	59.2	Rice	2350	96	32	14.3	28	24
- Vietnam	75.1	Rice	2470	21	45	14.1	33	19

Figure 11-10: Normalized trends in grain production in Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan since 1970 (CIA, 1998).

Ongoing studies on crop productivity in relation to global warming cover not only biophysical aspects but also socioeconomic drivers and consequences (Fischer et al., 1995; Islam, 1995). The economic impacts of climate change on world agriculture are expected to be relatively minor because decreasing food production in some areas will be balanced by gains in others (e.g., Kane et al., 1991; Tobey et al., 1992; Rosenzweig and Parry, 1993). Such findings however, should be viewed as aggregate results that mask crucial differences in inter-country and intra-country production impacts and the distribution of food resources. In Asia, where rice is one of the main staple foods, production and distribution of rice-growing areas may be affected substantially by climate change. Disparity between rice-producing countries is already visible, and it is increasingly evident between developed and developing countries (Fischer et al., 1996). The projected decline in potential yield and total production of rice in some Asian countries because of changes in climate and climate variability would have a significant effect on trade in agricultural commodities, hence on economic growth and stability (Matthews et al., 1995b)

Increasing population growth and changing dietary patterns in Asia have resulted in more and more land moving from forests and grasslands into agricultural production. Regardless of the increased use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides, in addition to changes in irrigation practices and improved seed stock, yields for major cereal crops have stagnated in many Asian countries during recent years (Iglesias et al., 1996; Sinha, 1997); further intensification of agriculture on area in cropland is certain, and conversion of more land to agricultural use is likely, especially in the developing countries of Asia. Both actions will have far-reaching implications with regard to increased soil erosion, loss of soil fertility, loss of genetic variability in crops, and depletion of water resources (Sinha et al., 1998). Soil degradation is seemingly irreversible unless remedied through painstaking reconstruction of soil health.

A clear understanding of the relationship between climatic variability, crop management, and agricultural productivity is critical in assessing the impacts of climatic variability and change on crop production, the identification of adaptation strategies and appropriate management practices, and the formulation of mitigating measures to minimize the negative effects of climatic variability (including extreme events) on agricultural productivity. In the future, food security will be at the top of the agenda in Asian countries because of two emerging events: growing population, and many direct and indirect effects of climate change. Greatly enhanced efforts to understand the relationship between key climate elements and agriculture should provide a sound basis for meeting the challenges of optimizing the benefits of changing climatic resources.

In some Asian countries, the pace of food grain production has slowed in recent years as a result of depletion of soil nutrients and water resources, creation of salinity and waterlogging, resurgence of pests and diseases, and increased environmental pollution (Gadgil, 1995). Many natural as well as environmental factors—such as extremely dry or cold climates, erratic rainfall, storms and floods, topsoil erosion and severe land degradation, and poor investment and lack of appropriate technology—have played limiting roles in the agricultural potential of most developing countries of Asia (see also Section 5.3). For example, food grain production in Pakistan and India has continued to increase since the 1970s while it has stagnated in Bangladesh (Figure 11-10), largely because of increased losses to climate extremes and land degradation. In India, the estimated total requirement for food grains would be more than 250 Mt by 2010; the gross arable area is expected to increase from 191 to 215 Mha by 2010, which would require an increase of cropping intensity to approximately 150% (Sinha et al., 1998). Because land is a fixed resource for agriculture, the need for more food in India could be met only through higher yield per units of land, water, energy, and time—such as through precision farming. To ensure food security in the developing countries of south and southeast Asia, it is necessary to expand agricultural production, develop the food distribution system, and promote nutrition education, as well as expand the economy and adjust the distribution of incomes.

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