REPORTS - ASSESSMENT REPORTS

Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability


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Table 11-6: Prevalence of undernourishment in developing countries of Asia (FAO, 1999a; UNICEF, 1999).
Country/Region Popu-lation, 1996 (millions) Main Cereal Consumed, 1995-1997 Dietary Energy Supply per Person, 1995-1997
(kcal day-1)
Access to Adequate Sanitation, 1990-1997
(%)
Under 5 Mortality Rate, 1995
(per 1000)
Number of Under- nourished People
(millions)
Fraction of Population Under- nourished, 1979-1981 (%) Fraction of Population Under- nourished, 1995-1997 (%)
Arid and Semi-Arid Asia                
- Afghanistan
20.3
Wheat
1730
8
257
12.7
33
62
- Iran
63.5
Wheat
2830
81
40
3.7
9
6
- Iraq
20.6
Wheat
2370
75
71
3.2
4
15
- Jordan
4.4
Wheat
2910
77
25
0.1
6
3
- Kuwait
1.7
Wheat
3060
14
0.1
4
3
- Lebanon
3.1
Wheat
3270
63
40
0.1
8
2
- Pakistan
140.1
Wheat
2460
56
137
26.3
31
19
- Saudi Arabia
18.9
Wheat
2800
86
34
0.7
3
4
- Syrian Arab Republic
14.6
Wheat
3330
67
36
0.2
3
1
- Turkey
62.3
Wheat
3520
80
50
1.0
2
2
- United Arab Emirates
2.3
Rice/Wheat
3360
92
19
0.0
1
2
                 
Temperate Asia                
- China
1238.8
Rice
2840
24
47
164.4
30
13
- Korea, DPR
22.6
Maize/Rice
1980
30
10.8
19
48
- Korea, Republic
45.3
Rice
3160
100
9
0.4
1
1
- Mongolia
2.5
Wheat
1920
86
74
1.2
27
48
                 
South Asia                
- Bangladesh
120.6
Rice
2080
43
115
44.0
42
37
- India
950.0
Rice
2470
29
115
204.4
38
22
- Nepal
21.8
Rice
2320
16
114
4.6
46
21
- Sri Lanka
18.1
Rice
2290
63
19
4.6
22
25
                 
Southeast Asia                
- Cambodia
10.2
Rice
2050
19
174
3.4
62
33
- Indonesia
200.4
Rice
2900
59
75
11.5
26
6
- Laos
4.9
Rice
2060
18
134
1.6
32
33
- Malaysia
20.5
Rice
2940
94
13
0.4
4
2
- Myanmar
43.4
Rice
2850
43
150
2.8
19
7
- Philippines
69.9
Rice
2360
75
53
15.6
27
22
- Thailand
59.2
Rice
2350
96
32
14.3
28
24
- Vietnam
75.1
Rice
2470
21
45
14.1
33
19


Figure 11-10: Normalized trends in grain production in Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan since 1970 (CIA, 1998).

Ongoing studies on crop productivity in relation to global warming cover not only biophysical aspects but also socioeconomic drivers and consequences (Fischer et al., 1995; Islam, 1995). The economic impacts of climate change on world agriculture are expected to be relatively minor because decreasing food production in some areas will be balanced by gains in others (e.g., Kane et al., 1991; Tobey et al., 1992; Rosenzweig and Parry, 1993). Such findings however, should be viewed as aggregate results that mask crucial differences in inter-country and intra-country production impacts and the distribution of food resources. In Asia, where rice is one of the main staple foods, production and distribution of rice-growing areas may be affected substantially by climate change. Disparity between rice-producing countries is already visible, and it is increasingly evident between developed and developing countries (Fischer et al., 1996). The projected decline in potential yield and total production of rice in some Asian countries because of changes in climate and climate variability would have a significant effect on trade in agricultural commodities, hence on economic growth and stability (Matthews et al., 1995b)

Increasing population growth and changing dietary patterns in Asia have resulted in more and more land moving from forests and grasslands into agricultural production. Regardless of the increased use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides, in addition to changes in irrigation practices and improved seed stock, yields for major cereal crops have stagnated in many Asian countries during recent years (Iglesias et al., 1996; Sinha, 1997); further intensification of agriculture on area in cropland is certain, and conversion of more land to agricultural use is likely, especially in the developing countries of Asia. Both actions will have far-reaching implications with regard to increased soil erosion, loss of soil fertility, loss of genetic variability in crops, and depletion of water resources (Sinha et al., 1998). Soil degradation is seemingly irreversible unless remedied through painstaking reconstruction of soil health.

A clear understanding of the relationship between climatic variability, crop management, and agricultural productivity is critical in assessing the impacts of climatic variability and change on crop production, the identification of adaptation strategies and appropriate management practices, and the formulation of mitigating measures to minimize the negative effects of climatic variability (including extreme events) on agricultural productivity. In the future, food security will be at the top of the agenda in Asian countries because of two emerging events: growing population, and many direct and indirect effects of climate change. Greatly enhanced efforts to understand the relationship between key climate elements and agriculture should provide a sound basis for meeting the challenges of optimizing the benefits of changing climatic resources.

In some Asian countries, the pace of food grain production has slowed in recent years as a result of depletion of soil nutrients and water resources, creation of salinity and waterlogging, resurgence of pests and diseases, and increased environmental pollution (Gadgil, 1995). Many natural as well as environmental factors—such as extremely dry or cold climates, erratic rainfall, storms and floods, topsoil erosion and severe land degradation, and poor investment and lack of appropriate technology—have played limiting roles in the agricultural potential of most developing countries of Asia (see also Section 5.3). For example, food grain production in Pakistan and India has continued to increase since the 1970s while it has stagnated in Bangladesh (Figure 11-10), largely because of increased losses to climate extremes and land degradation. In India, the estimated total requirement for food grains would be more than 250 Mt by 2010; the gross arable area is expected to increase from 191 to 215 Mha by 2010, which would require an increase of cropping intensity to approximately 150% (Sinha et al., 1998). Because land is a fixed resource for agriculture, the need for more food in India could be met only through higher yield per units of land, water, energy, and time—such as through precision farming. To ensure food security in the developing countries of south and southeast Asia, it is necessary to expand agricultural production, develop the food distribution system, and promote nutrition education, as well as expand the economy and adjust the distribution of incomes.

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