11.2.6. Human Dimensions
11.2.6.1. Climate Extremes and Migration
The impacts of climate change on Asia will place additional stress on socioeconomic
and physical systems. These pressures may induce change in demographic processes.
Demographic trends, including the stability and size of populations, will be
influenced directly through the impacts of climate change on human health as
described in Section 11.2.5 and indirectly through the
impacts of climate change on food security and the viability of natural resource-based
economic activity. A further demographic response will come about through the
risk of extreme events on human settlements. If the incidence and magnitudes
of events such as droughts and coastal floods increase, there could be large-scale
demographic responses—for example, through migration. Migration in itself
is not necessarily a signal of vulnerability to present-day extreme events.
Motivations for migration are diverse; much rural-to-urban migration in Asia
takes place as a result of increased economic opportunities in megacities (cities
with at least 8 million inhabitants). Future increases in the frequency and
intensity of severe weather systems as a consequence of climate change can trigger
mass migration, however.
The annual rate of growth in migration on a global scale has been greatest
in developing countries of south and southeast Asia. For instance, population
growth and land scarcity has encouraged the migration of more than 10 million
Bangladesh natives to neighboring Indian states during the past 2 decades. This
migration has been exacerbated by a series of floods and droughts affecting
the livelihoods of landless and poor farmers in this region. Land loss in coastal
areas resulting from inundation from sea-level rise as a result of climate change
is likely to lead to increased displacement of resident populations. Many south
Asian countries increasingly expect the number of internally displaced persons
to rise in future.
Immigrant labor often benefits both the donor and the host cities/ countries
(Connell and Conway, 2000). However, perceptions of regional/national identity,
language/cultural differences, and fears of unemployment may contribute to increased
hostilities between immigrants and nationals in years to come. Climate change
will act in parallel with a complex array of social, cultural, and economic
motivations for and impacts of migration (Pebley, 1998; Conway et al., 2000;
Kates, 2000). Irrespective of resource constraints in developing countries of
Asia, they have to better equip themselves through appropriate public education
and awareness programs with disaster preparedness measures, including infrastructures
for effective resettlement of displaced people as a consequence of weather calamities.
11.2.6.2. Infrastructure Linkages
The urban population in Asia is growing at four to five times the rate of the
rural population. At this rate, more than 60% of the people in Asia will be
living in towns and cities by 2015. An estimated 80% of the increase will occur
in developing countries. The number of megacities in Asia would grow to at least
23 of the world's 36 by the year 2015 (United Nations, 1998). Urbanization
is rapid in fast-growing economies of south and southeast Asia, where the average
annual urban growth rate is more than 4%. The current pace and scale of change
often strains the capacity of local and national governments to provide even
the most basic services to urban residents. An estimated 25-40% of urban
inhabitants in developing countries today live in impoverished slums and squatter
settlements, with little or no access to water, sanitation, or refuse collection
(World Bank, 1997).
Basic infrastructure demand in urban corridors is likely to increase dramatically
in the future. Already governments in several developing countries of Asia are
introducing suites of acts and laws to ensure provision of adequate public services
and minimize adverse effects on surrounding communities and ecosystems. For
instance, Indonesia introduced the Spatial Use Management Act in 1992 for the
identification of environmentally sensitive areas—where development activities
would be restricted—and for improved planning for the location and support
of activities such as industrial development (Djoekardi, 1995). Developing countries
in Asia would soon need to develop new priorities and policies that try to address
demands created by the increasing number of people in cities while capitalizing
on the benefits of urbanization, such as economic growth and efficient delivery
of services. Climate change has the potential to exacerbate basic infrastructure
demands of urban inhabitants in many countries of Asia.
|