14.2.3.1.2. Coral reefs
The second largest coral reef system in the world dominates the offshore area
of the western Caribbean (Milliman, 1993), and all but the northern Gulf coast
have extensive reef systems. Growth of individual coral organisms is estimated
to be 1-20 cm yr-1 (Vicent et al., 1993), and reef growth
rates as a whole are known to be up to 1.5 cm yr-1 (Hendry, 1993).
Reefs that accumulate at these rates could keep pace with a sea-level rise of
20 cm by 2025 (UNEP, 1993) if other factors do not alter growth conditions.
Accurate predictions on the effect of sea-level rise may be possible in reefs
that already have been physically and biologically monitored, such as in Panama,
Jamaica, Puerto Rico, and Belize (UNEP, 1993; Gischler and Hudson, 1998).
14.2.3.1.3. Socioeconomic issues
Latin America coastal zones with economies that are based in fishing and tourism
are particularly vulnerable to physical changes associated with sea-level rise.
Tourism is one of the most important industries in the region, especially in
the Caribbean. Shoreline migration will create new areas of economic opportunity
as new beaches are built, but protection, replenishment, and stabilization of
existing beaches represents a principal socioeconomic impact. It is difficult
to separate the impact of climate-induced sea-level rise from erosion associated
with the persistent interaction of the sea on the coast. In addition, certain
sand-mining practices (such as in Trinidad and Tobago) already have important
effects on the ecosystem. Indirect socioeconomic effects on tourism from increasing
pollution, coral reef mortality, and storm damage also are involved (UNEP, 1993).
Latin American economies could be severely affected by climate change. Coastal
wetlands in Central America could generate US$750 million. Shrimp fisheries
at the Estero Real in Nicaragua, which could provide US$60 million annually
to the economy of the country, and the Gulf of Fonseca—which supplies important
fishing, firewood, and transport to the rural communities of El Salvador, Honduras,
and Nicaragua—could be affected by sea-level rise (Quesada and Jiménez,
1988).
Socioeconomic issues in the context of local response to global change—such
as tourism, settlements and structures, and cultural heritage—and the influence
of tropical storms are considered most important regarding levels of vulnerability
(Mainardi, 1996; Tabilo-Baldivieso, 1997; Windovoxhel et al., 1998).
Approximately 1,600 km of coral reefs and 870 km of mangroves are located in
the region of Central America (Tabilo-Valdivieso, 1997). More than 15,000 species
of plants and 800 species of vertebrates identified in the region would be at
risk from sea-level rise, along with resources for rural communities (about
450,000 people) that inhabit the coastal areas of Central America (Windovoxhel
et al., 1998).
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