7.6.4 Integrated Assessment Models
Researchers have also assessed the costs of climate protection by considering
both the economic and biophysical systems, and the interactions between them.
IAMs do this by combining key elements of biophysical and economic systems into
one integrated system. They provide convenient frameworks to combine knowledge
from a wide range of disciplines. These models strip down the laws of nature
and human behaviour to their essentials to depict how increased GHGs in the
atmosphere affect temperature, and how temperature change causes quantifiable
economic losses. The models also contain enough detail about the drivers of
energy use and energyeconomy interactions to determine the economic costs
of different constraints on CO2 emissions (see, e.g., Shogren and
Toman, 2000).
IAMs fall into two broad classes: policy optimization and policy evaluation
models. Policy optimization models can be divided into three principal types:
- costbenefit models, which try to balance the costs and benefits of
climate policies;
- target-based models, which optimize responses, given targets for emission
or climate change impacts; and
- uncertainty-based models, which deal with decision making under conditions
of uncertainty.
Policy evaluation models include:
- deterministic projection models, in which each input and output takes on
a single value; and
- stochastic projection models, in which at least some inputs and outputs
take on a range of values.
Current integrated assessment research uses one or more of the following methods
(Rotmans and Dowlatabadi, 1998):
- computer-aided IAMs to analyze the behaviour of complex systems;
- simulation gaming in which complex systems are represented by simpler ones
with relevant behavioural similarity;
- scenarios as tools to explore a variety of possible images of the future;
and
- qualitative integrated assessments based on a limited, heterogeneous data
set, without using any models.
A review by Parson and Fisher-Vanden (1997) shows that IAMs have contributed
to the establishment of important new insights to the policy debate, in particular
regarding the evaluation of policies and responses, structuring knowledge, and
prioritizing uncertainties. They have also contributed to the basic knowledge
about the climate system as a whole. The review concludes that IAMs face two
challenges, namely managing their relationship to research and disciplinary
knowledge, and managing their relationship to other assessment processes and
to policymaking.
|