Executive Summary
This chapter places climate change mitigation, mitigation policy, and the contents
of the rest of the report in the broader context of development, equity, and
sustainability. This context reflects the explicit conditions and principles
laid down by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) on the pursuit
of the ultimate objective of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations. The
UNFCCC imposes three conditions on the goal of stabilization, namely, that it
should take place within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to
adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened
and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner
(Art. 2). It also specifies several principles to guide this process: equity,
common but differentiated responsibilities, precaution, cost-effective measures,
right to sustainable development, and support for an open international economic
system (Art. 3).
Previous IPCC assessment reports sought to facilitate this pursuit by comprehensively
describing, cataloguing and comparing technologies and policy instruments that
could be used to achieve mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions in a cost-effective
and efficient manner. The present assessment advances this process by including
recent analyses of climate change that place policy evaluations in the context
of sustainable development. This expansion of scope is consistent both with
the evolution of the literature on climate change and importance accorded by
the UNFCCC to sustainable development - including the recognition that Parties
have a right to, and should promote sustainable development (Art. 3.4).
It therefore goes some way towards filling the gaps in earlier assessments.
Climate Change involves complex interactions between climatic, environmental,
economic, political, institutional, social, and technological processes. It
cannot be addressed or comprehended in isolation from broader societal goals
(such as sustainable development), or other existing or probable future sources
of stress. In keeping with this complexity, a multiplicity of approaches have
emerged to analyze climate change and related challenges. Many of these incorporate
concerns about development, equity, and sustainability (albeit partially and
gradually) into their framework and recommendations. Each approach emphasizes
certain elements of the problem, and focuses on certain classes of responses,
including for example, optimal policy design, building capacity for designing
and implementing policies, strengthening synergies between climate change mitigation
and/or adaptation and other societal goals, and policies to enhance societal
learning. These approaches are therefore complementary rather than mutually
exclusive.
This chapter brings together three broad classes of analysis, which differ not
so much in terms of their ultimate goals as in their points of departure and
preferred analytical tools. The three approaches start with concerns, respectively,
about efficiency and cost-effectiveness, equity and sustainable development,
and global sustainability and societal learning. The difference between the
three approaches we have selected lies in their starting point, not in their
ultimate goals. Regardless of the starting point of the analysis, many studies
try in their own way to incorporate other concerns. For example, many analyses
that approach climate change mitigation from a cost-effectiveness perspective
try to bring in considerations of equity and sustainability through their treatment
of costs, benefits, and welfare. Similarly, the class of studies motivated strongly
by considerations of inter-country equity tend to argue that equity is needed
to ensure that developing countries can pursue their internal goals of sustainable
developmenta concept that includes the implicit components of sustainability
and efficiency. Likewise, analysts focused on concerns of global sustainability
have been compelled by their own logic to make a case for global efficiencyoften
modelled as the decoupling of production from material flowsand social
equity. In other words, each of the three perspectives has led writers to search
for ways to incorporate concerns that lie beyond their initial starting point.
All three classes of analyses look at the relationship of climate change mitigation
with all three goalsdevelopment, equity, and sustainabilityalbeit
in different and often highly complementary ways. Nevertheless, they frame the
issues differently, focus on different sets of causal relationships, use different
tools of analysis, and often come to somewhat different conclusions.
There is no presumption that any particular perspective for analysis is most
appropriate at any level. Moreover, the three perspectives are viewed here as
being highly synergistic. The important changes have been primarily in the types
of questions being asked and the kinds of information being sought. In practice,
the literature has expanded to add new issues and new tools, subsuming rather
than discarding the analyses included in the other ones. The range and scope
of climate policy analyses can be understood as a gradual broadening of the
types and extent of uncertainties that analysts have been willing and able to
address.
The first perspective on climate policy considered is Cost-effectiveness. It
represents a perspective that is well represented in conventional climate policy
analysis and in the First through Third Assessments. These analyses have generally
been driven directly or indirectly by the question of what the most cost-effective
amount of mitigation for the global economy is, starting from a particular baseline
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario, reflecting a specific set of socioeconomic
scenarios. Within this framework, important issues include measuring the performance
of various technologies and the removal of barriers (such as existing subsidies)
to the implementation of those candidate policies most likely to contribute
to emissions reductions. In a sense, the focus of analysis here has been on
identifying an efficient pathway through the interactions of mitigation policies
and economic development, conditioned by considerations of equity and sustainability,
but not primarily guided by them. At this level, policy analysis has almost
always taken the existing institutions and tastes of individuals as given; assumptions
that might be valid for a decade or two, but may become more questionable over
many decades.
The impetus for the expansion in the scope of the climate policy analysis and
discourse to include Equity considerations was to include considerations not
simply of the impacts of climate change and mitigation policies on global welfare
as a whole, but also of the effects of climate change and mitigation policies
on existing inequalities among and within nations. The literature on equity
and climate change has advanced considerably over the last two decades, but
there is no consensus on what constitutes fairness. Once equity issues were
introduced into the assessment agenda, though, they became important components
in defining the search for efficient emissions mitigation pathways. The considerable
literature that indicated how environmental policies could be hampered or even
blocked by those who considered them unfair became relevant. In the light of
these results, it became clear how and why any widespread perception that a
mitigation strategy is unfair would likely engender opposition to that strategy,
perhaps to the extent of rendering it non-optimal. Some cost-effectiveness analyses
had, in fact, laid the groundwork for applying this literature by demonstrating
the sensitivity of some equity measures to policy design, national perspective,
and regional context. Indeed, cost-effectiveness analyses had even highlighted
similar sensitivities for other measures of development and sustainability.
As mentioned, the analyses that start from equity concerns have by and large
focused on the needs of developing countries, and, in particular, on the commitment
expressed in Article 3.4 of the UNFCCC to the pursuit of sustainable development.
Assessing the climate challenge from a sustainable development perspective immediately
reveals that countries differ in ways that have dramatic implications for scenario
baselines and the range of mitigation options that can be considered. The climate
policies that are feasible, and or desirable, in a particular country depend
importantly on its available resources and institutions, and on its overall
objectives including climate change as but one component. Moreover, although
OECD centered models may give helpful first order insights into the efficacy
of global scale policy interventions, their underlying assumptions may make
them less useful when the heterogeneity of nations is fully incorporated. Recognizing
this heterogeneity may lead to a different range of policy options than has
been considered likely thus far and may ultimately feed back into policy design
for Annex I. Recognizing heterogeneity among countries reveals, in short, differences
in the capacities of different sectors that may also enhance appreciation of
what can be done by non-state actors as well as governments to build their ability
to mitigate.
While sustainability has been incorporated in the analyses in a number of ways,
a class of studies takes the issue of Global Sustainability as the point of
departure. One popular method for identifying constraints and opportunities
within this perspective is to identify future sustainable states and then examine
possible transition paths to those states for feasibility and desirability.
In the case of developing countries this leads to a number of possible strategies
that can depart significantly from what the developed countries pursued in the
past.
The chapter closes with a discussion of preliminary attempts to integrate the
information and insights that result from studies done from the three perspectives.
Within this report the concept of co-benefits is used to capture
dimensions of the response to mitigation policies from the equity and sustainability
perspectives in a way that could be used to modify the cost projections produced
by those working form the cost-effectiveness perspective although ancillary
benefit has been more widely used in the literature. The concept of mitigative
capacity is also introduced as a possible way to integrate results derived
from the application of the three perspectives in the future.
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