Central Asia and Tibet

Precipitation over central Asia increases in most MMD-A1B projections for DJF but decreases in the other seasons. The median change by the end of the 21st century is –3% in the annual mean, with +4% in DJF and –13% in JJA (the dry season) (Table 11.1). This seasonal variation in the changes is broadly consistent with the earlier multi-model study of Meleshko et al. (2004), although they find an increase in summer precipitation in the northern part of the area.

Over the Tibetan Plateau, all MMD-A1B models project increased precipitation in DJF (median 19%). Most but not all models also simulate increased precipitation in the other seasons (Table 11.1). Earlier studies both by AOGCMs and RCMs are consistent with these findings (Gao et al., 2003b; Y. Xu et al., 2003a,b, 2005).