11.7.3 Climate Projections

In addition to the MMD models, numerous studies have been conducted with earlier models. Recent regional average projections are provided in Giorgi et al. (2001b) and Ruosteenoja et al. (2003). The most recent national climate change projections of CSIRO (2001) were based on the results of eight AOGCMs and one higher-resolution regional simulation. The methodology (and simulations) used in these projections is described in Whetton et al. (2005) and follows closely that described for earlier projections in Whetton et al. (1996). More detailed projections for individual states and other regions have also been prepared in recent years (Whetton et al., 2001; Cai et al., 2003b; McInnes et al., 2003, 2004; Hennessy et al., 2004a,b; IOCI, 2005). This work has focused on temperature and precipitation, with additional variables such as potential evaporation and winds being included in the more recent assessments.

A range of dynamically downscaled projections have been undertaken for Australia using the DARLAM regional model (Whetton et al., 2001) and the CCAM stretched grid model (McGregor and Dix, 2001) at resolutions of 60 km across Australia and down to 14 km for Tasmania (McGregor, 2004). These projections use forcing from recent CSIRO AOGCM projections. Downscaled projected climate change using statistical methods has also been recently undertaken for parts of Australia (e.g., Timbal and McAvaney, 2001; Charles et al., 2004; Timbal, 2004) and New Zealand (Mullan et al., 2001a; Ministry for the Environment, 2004).