IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007
Climate Change 2007: Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis
Figure 9.11

Figure 9.11. Scaling factors indicating the match between observed and simulated decadal near-surface air temperature change (1950–1999) when greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing responses (GS) are taken into account in ‘optimal’ detection analyses (Appendix 9.A), at a range of spatial scales from global to sub-continental. Thick bars indicate 90% confidence intervals on the scaling factors, and the thin extensions indicate the increased width of these confidence intervals when estimates of the variance due to internal variability are doubled. Scaling factors and uncertainties are provided for different spatial domains including Canada (Canadian land area south of 70°N), China, Southern Europe (European land area bounded by 10°W to 40°E, 35° to 50°N), North America (North American land area between 30°N and 70°N), Eurasia (Eurasian land area between 30°N and 70°N), mid-latitude land area between 30°N and 70°N (labelled NH-land), the NH mid-latitudes (30°N to 70°N including land and ocean), the NH, and the globe. The GS signals are obtained from CGCM1 and CGCM2 combined (labelled CGCM, see Table 8.1 of the TAR), HadCM2 (see Table 8.1 of the TAR), and HadCM3 (see Table 8.1, this report), and these four models combined (‘ALL’). After Zhang et al. (2006) and Hegerl et al. (2006b).