IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007
Climate Change 2007: Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis

Projected Warming in 2090–2099

Figure TS.27

Figure TS.27. (Top) Projected global mean temperature change in 2090 to 2099 relative to 1980 to 1999 for the six SRES marker scenarios based on results from different and independent models. The multi-model AOGCM mean and the range of the mean minus 40% to the mean plus 60% are shown as black horizontal solid lines and grey bars, respectively. Carbon cycle uncertainties are estimated for scenario A2 based on Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) models (dark blue crosses), and for all marker scenarios using an EMIC (pale blue symbols). Other symbols represent individual studies (see Figure 10.29 for details of specific models). (Bottom) Projected global average sea level rise and its components in 2090 to 2099 (relative to 1980–1999) for the six SRES marker scenarios. The uncertainties denote 5 to 95% ranges, based on the spread of model results, and not including carbon cycle uncertainties. The contributions are derived by scaling AOGCM results and estimating land ice changes from temperature changes (see Appendix 10.A for details). Individual contributions are added to give the total sea level rise, which does not include the contribution shown for ice sheet dynamical imbalance, for which the current level of understanding prevents a best estimate from being given. {Figures 10.29 and 10.33}