IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007
Climate Change 2007: Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis

Continental Surface Temperature Anomalies: Observations and Projections

Figure TS.29

Figure TS.29. Decadal mean continental surface temperature anomalies (°C) in observations and simulations for the period 1906 to 2005 and in projections for 2001 to 2050. Anomalies are calculated from the 1901 to 1950 average. The black lines represent the observations and the pink and blue bands show simulated average temperature anomalies as in Figure TS.22 for the 20th century (i.e., pink includes anthropogenic and natural forcings and blue includes only natural forcings). The yellow shading represents the 5th to 95th percentile range of projected changes according to the SRES A1B emissions scenario. The green bar denotes the 5th to 95th percentile range of decadal mean anomalies from the 20th-century simulations with only natural forcings (i.e., a measure of the natural decadal variability). For the observed part of these graphs, the decadal averages are centred on calendar decade boundaries (i.e., the last point is at 2000 for 1996 to 2005), whereas for the future period they are centred on calendar decade mid-points (i.e., the first point is at 2005 for 2001 to 2010). To construct the ranges, all simulations from the set of models involved were considered independent realisations of the possible evolution of the climate given the forcings applied. This involved 58 simulations from 14 models for the red curve, 19 simulations from 5 models (a subset of the 14) for the blue curve and green bar and 47 simulations from 18 models for the yellow curve. {FAQ 9.2, Figure 1 and Box 11.1, Figure 1}