9.4.7 Tourism

Climate change could also place tourism at risk, particularly in coastal zones and mountain regions. Important market changes could also result from climate change (World Tourism Organization, 2003) in such environments. The economic benefits of tourism in Africa, which according to 2004 statistics accounts for 3% of worldwide tourism, may change with climate change (World Tourism Organization, 2005). However, very few assessments of projected impacts on tourism and climate change are available, particularly those using scenarios and GCM outputs. Modelling climate changes as well as human behaviour, including personal preferences, choices and other factors, is exceedingly complex. Although scientific evidence is still lacking, it is probable that flood risks and water-pollution-related diseases in low-lying regions (coastal areas), as well as coral reef bleaching as a result of climate change, could impact negatively on tourism (McLeman and Smit, 2004). African places of interest to tourists, including wildlife areas and parks, may also attract fewer tourists under marked climate changes. Climate change could, for example, lead to a poleward shift of centres of tourist activity and a shift from lowland to highland tourism (Hamilton et al., 2005).