Executive summary

Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate change and climate variability, a situation aggravated by the interaction of ‘multiple stresses’, occurring at various levels, and low adaptive capacity (high confidence).

Africa’s major economic sectors are vulnerable to current climate sensitivity, with huge economic impacts, and this vulnerability is exacerbated by existing developmental challenges such as endemic poverty, complex governance and institutional dimensions; limited access to capital, including markets, infrastructure and technology; ecosystem degradation; and complex disasters and conflicts. These in turn have contributed to Africa’s weak adaptive capacity, increasing the continent’s vulnerability to projected climate change. [9.2.2, 9.5, 9.6.1]

African farmers have developed several adaptation options to cope with current climate variability, but such adaptations may not be sufficient for future changes of climate (high confidence).

Human or societal adaptive capacity, identified as being low for Africa in the Third Assessment Report, is now better understood and this understanding is supported by several case studies of both current and future adaptation options. However, such advances in the science of adaptation to climate change and variability, including both contextual and outcome vulnerabilities to climate variability and climate change, show that these adaptations may be insufficient to cope with future changes of climate. [9.2, 9.4, 9.5, 9.6.2, Table 9.2]

Agricultural production and food security (including access to food) in many African countries and regions are likely to be severely compromised by climate change and climate variability (high confidence).

A number of countries in Africa already face semi-arid conditions that make agriculture challenging, and climate change will be likely to reduce the length of growing season as well as force large regions of marginal agriculture out of production. Projected reductions in yield in some countries could be as much as 50% by 2020, and crop net revenues could fall by as much as 90% by 2100, with small-scale farmers being the most affected. This would adversely affect food security in the continent. [9.2.1, 9.4.4, 9.6.1]

Climate change will aggravate the water stress currently faced by some countries, while some countries that currently do not experience water stress will become at risk of water stress (very high confidence).

Climate change and variability are likely to impose additional pressures on water availability, water accessibility and water demand in Africa. Even without climate change, several countries in Africa, particularly in northern Africa, will exceed the limits of their economically usable land-based water resources before 2025. About 25% of Africa’s population (about 200 million people) currently experience high water stress. The population at risk of increased water stress in Africa is projected to be between 75-250 million and 350-600 million people by the 2020s and 2050s, respectively. [9.2.1, 9.2.2, 9.4.1]

Changes in a variety of ecosystems are already being detected, particularly in southern African ecosystems, at a faster rate than anticipated (very high confidence).

Climate change, interacting with human drivers such as deforestation and forest fires, are a threat to Africa’s forest ecosystems. Changes in grasslands and marine ecosystems are also noticeable. It is estimated that, by the 2080s, the proportion of arid and semi-arid lands in Africa is likely to increase by 5-8%. Climate change impacts on Africa’s ecosystems will probably have a negative effect on tourism as, according to one study, between 25 and 40% of mammal species in national parks in sub-Saharan Africa will become endangered. [9.2.2, 9.4.4, 9.4.5]

Climate variability and change could result in low-lying lands being inundated, with resultant impacts on coastal settlements (high confidence).

Climate variability and change, coupled with human-induced changes, may also affect ecosystems e.g., mangroves and coral reefs, with additional consequences for fisheries and tourism. The projection that sea-level rise could increase flooding, particularly on the coasts of eastern Africa, will have implications for health. Sea-level rise will probably increase the high socio-economic and physical vulnerability of coastal cities. The cost of adaptation to sea-level rise could amount to at least 5-10% of gross domestic product. [9.4.3, 9.4.6, 9.5.2]

Human health, already compromised by a range of factors, could be further negatively impacted by climate change and climate variability, e.g., malaria in southern Africa and the East African highlands (high confidence).

It is likely that climate change will alter the ecology of some disease vectors in Africa, and consequently the spatial and temporal transmission of such diseases. Most assessments of health have concentrated on malaria and there are still debates on the attribution of malaria resurgence in some African areas. The need exists to examine the vulnerabilities and impacts of future climate change on other infectious diseases such as dengue fever, meningitis and cholera, among others. [9.2.1.2, 9.4.3 9.5.1]