IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007
Climate Change 2007: Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Figure 15.3

Figure 15.3. Present and projected vegetation and minimum sea-ice extent for Arctic and neighbouring regions. Vegetation maps based on floristic surveys (top) and projected vegetation for 2090-2100, predicted by the LPJ Dynamic Vegetation Model driven by the HadCM2 climate model (bottom) modified from Kaplan et al. (2003) in Callaghan et al. (2005). The original vegetation classes have been condensed as follows: grassland = temperate grassland and xerophytic scrubland; temperate forest = cool mixed forest, cool-temperate evergreen needle-leaved and mixed forest, temperate evergreen needle-leaved forest, temperate deciduous broadleaved forest; boreal forest = cool evergreen needle-leaved forest, cold deciduous forest, cold evergreen needle-leaved forest; tundra = low- and high-shrub tundra, erect dwarf-shrub tundra, prostrate dwarf-shrub tundra; polar desert/semi-desert = cushion forb, lichen and moss tundra. Also shown are observed minimum sea-ice extent for September 2002, and projected sea-ice minimum extent, together with potential new/improved sea routes (redrawn from Instanes et al., 2005; Walsh et al., 2005).