IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007
Climate Change 2007: Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Figure 19.1

Figure 19.1. Probability (see ‘Key caveat’ above on low confidence for specific quantitatitive results) of exceeding an equilibrium global warming of 2°C above pre-industrial (1.4°C above 1990 levels), for a range of CO2-equivalent stabilisation levels. Source: Hare and Meinshausen (2005).